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RB Bragantino crestRB Bragantino
v
Corinthians crestCorinthians

Serie A | Sun 09 Aug, 22:30

RB Bragantino v Corinthians Stats

Data last updated: Sat 08 Aug 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

RB Bragantino and Corinthians meet in a Serie A clash where both sides have shown competitive intensity and tactical discipline. RB Bragantino ranks 6th with 31 points, while Corinthians sits 11th with 29 points, indicating a closely contested fixture. Both teams average 0.4 goals conceded per game, reflecting solid defensive organization, but their matches often involve physical battles and tactical fouling. Recent form data shows both sides have accumulated 11 points recently, suggesting a balanced contest with high stakes for positioning in the league. This match is likely to feature intense midfield duels and tactical fouls as each side seeks control.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • RB Bragantino averages 3.2 yellow cards per game, Corinthians 2.4, indicating physical play.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, showing openness in attack.
  • RB Bragantino averages 17.6 shots per game with 5.2 on target, suggesting attacking pressure.
  • Corinthians averages 4.4 corners per game, RB Bragantino 6.2, indicating territorial battles.
  • Player data shows several RB Bragantino players with high card risk, supporting a high-card game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 4.5 Cards as a positive value bet with a 67.4% chance against an implied market chance of 59.9%, reflecting a 7.5% . Both teams have shown a tendency for physical and tactical fouling, with RB Bragantino averaging over 3 yellows per game and Corinthians close behind. Player-level data highlights individuals like I. Sosa and Juninho Capixaba with high card risk, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple cautions. The match context of a tight league contest with aggressive midfield battles supports the expectation of a card-laden game.

Model Chance67.4%
Strong positive
RB Bragantino Yellow Cards Avg3.2 per game
Strong positive
Corinthians Yellow Cards Avg2.4 per game
Positive
Player Card Risk (I. Sosa)High (5 yellows)
Strong positive
Match Intensity and StakesHigh
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a fiercely contested match with aggressive midfield battles driving the card count higher. RB Bragantino's higher average yellows and Corinthians' competitive style suggest referees will have to manage frequent tactical fouls. The data and tactical context point towards Over 4.5 Cards as a plausible outcome in this intense Serie A fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture's physical intensity and tactical fouling tendencies make Over 4.5 Cards a compelling angle, especially given RB Bragantino's high card averages and key players prone to cautions.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

RB Bragantino averages 3.2 yellow cards per game, Corinthians 2.4, indicating physical play.

RB Bragantino averages 17.6 shots per game with 5.2 on target, suggesting attacking pressure.

Corinthians averages 4.4 corners per game, RB Bragantino 6.2, indicating territorial battles.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.4, indicating moderately open games.
  • While goal totals are balanced, the tempo and physicality in these encounters often lead to tactical fouling and cards.
  • This trend supports the expectation of a card-heavy match rather than a low-key defensive contest.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

RB Bragantino6.2
Avg corners for
Corinthians4.4
RB Bragantino11.2
Avg total corners
Corinthians7.8
RB Bragantino3.2
Avg yellow cards
Corinthians2.4
RB Bragantino17.6
Avg shots
Corinthians12.2
Market aligned with main pickOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +7.5 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
RB Bragantino's average of 6.2 corners and 17.6 shots per game contrasts with Corinthians' 4.4 corners and 12.2 shots, reflecting territorial pressure and attacking intent. The high shot volume and set-piece frequency increase physical duels and fouls, contributing to the likelihood of multiple cards being issued in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubRB Bragantino v Corinthians predictioncards betting researchcorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionCorinthians to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 28% · edge +11.7 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Corinthians Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
RB Bragantino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The Over 4.5 Cards market is priced attractively with a 1.67 reflecting a 59.9% implied chance, while the model estimates a higher 67.4% probability, indicating clear value. This pricing suggests the market may be underestimating the likelihood of multiple cautions given the teams' aggressive playing styles and recent disciplinary records.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

RB Bragantino

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
26 Jul 2026H Coritiba0-0
18 Jul 2026A Fluminense1-1
31 May 2026H Internacional3-1
25 May 2026A Vasco DA Gama3-0
17 May 2026H Vitoria2-0

Corinthians

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
30 Jul 2026H Atletico Paranaense0-0
26 Jul 2026A Bahia1-1
23 Jul 2026H Remo3-0
30 May 2026A Gremio3-1
24 May 2026H Atletico-MG1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Corinthians to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Corinthians Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
RB Bragantino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form shows both teams earning 11 points with strong defensive records conceding only 0.4 goals per game. However, RB Bragantino's higher average yellows per match and the competitive nature of recent games suggest referees have been active in controlling physical play, supporting the Over 4.5 Cards expectation.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

RB Bragantino1.8
Avg goals scored
Corinthians1.6
RB Bragantino0.4
Avg goals conceded
Corinthians0.4
RB Bragantino40%
BTTS rate
Corinthians40%
RB Bragantino40%
Over 2.5 goals
Corinthians40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 51% · edge +2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and a similar 40% BTTS rate, indicating balanced attacking and defensive tendencies. While goals may be moderate, the openness in play and tactical fouling often lead to interruptions and card accumulation, supporting a high-card game rather than a low-tempo defensive stalemate.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6RB Bragantino wins
1Draws
3Corinthians wins
12 Feb 2026Corinthians v RB Bragantino2-0
15 Jan 2026RB Bragantino v Corinthians3-0
05 Nov 2025RB Bragantino v Corinthians2-1
13 Jul 2025Corinthians v RB Bragantino1-2
16 Jan 2025RB Bragantino v Corinthians1-2
21 Aug 2024Corinthians v RB Bragantino1-2
Best odds for this sectionCorinthians to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 28% · edge +11.7 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
RB Bragantino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The ten previous meetings between RB Bragantino and Corinthians have averaged 2.4 goals per game, showing a moderately open style. While the goal data does not directly predict card counts, the competitive nature of these fixtures historically involves physical battles, supporting the likelihood of multiple cautions in this match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6RB Bragantino31209476
11Corinthians29217862
RB Bragantino's 6th place and Corinthians' 11th position with close point totals highlight the competitive stakes of this fixture. Both teams will likely engage in intense battles to secure league positioning, increasing the likelihood of tactical fouling and consequent cards as each side seeks to disrupt the other's rhythm.
Season team stats

Serie A

RB Bragantino20
Played
Corinthians21
RB Bragantino1.3
Avg goals for
Corinthians1
RB Bragantino1
Avg goals against
Corinthians1
RB Bragantino7
Clean sheets
Corinthians9
Best odds for this sectionCorinthians to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 28% · edge +11.7 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
RB Bragantino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Corinthians Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
RB Bragantino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Season-long data reveals RB Bragantino averages 3.2 yellow cards per game, the highest among the two, with Corinthians at 2.4. This consistent disciplinary pattern reflects aggressive tactical approaches and frequent fouling, underpinning the model's in a high-card match outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%RB Bragantino Over 2.5
40%Corinthians Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.4, indicating moderately open games. While goal totals are balanced, the tempo and physicality in these encounters often lead to tactical fouling and cards. This trend supports the expectation of a card-heavy match rather than a low-key defensive contest.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

RB Bragantino v Corinthians prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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