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Santos crestSantos
v
Atletico Paranaense crestAtletico Paranaense

Serie A | Sun 09 Aug, 22:30

Santos v Atletico Paranaense Stats

Data last updated: Mon 10 Aug 2026, 22:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico Paranaense arrives in strong form, sitting third in Serie A with 37 points, significantly ahead of Santos, who are 16th with 22 points. Atletico Paranaense's defense has been exceptional, conceding just 0.4 goals per game, while Santos struggles defensively, allowing 2.2 goals per match. Atletico Paranaense's tactical discipline and recent momentum contrast with Santos' challenges, setting the stage for a competitive encounter where the visitors are favored to secure victory.

BT4Y best bet

Atletico Paranaense to Win

  • Atletico Paranaense ranks 3rd with 37 points, Santos 16th with 22 points.
  • Atletico Paranaense concedes only 0.4 goals per game; Santos concedes 2.2.
  • Santos has a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate, Atletico Paranaense 40%.
  • Atletico Paranaense averages 5.5 corners per game, Santos 3.5.
  • Key Atletico Paranaense attackers like K. Viveros and Leozinho show strong shooting and goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Atletico Paranaense's chances to win at 70%, reflecting their superior defensive record and consistent point accumulation compared to Santos. Despite Santos' high scoring rate, their defensive frailties and lower league standing reduce their likelihood of victory. Atletico Paranaense's balanced attack and solid defense create a strong football read for an away win, supported by player data showing key attackers with high shot volumes and goal involvement. No price warning is needed as the offer positive value relative to the .

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Atletico Paranaense Defensive Strength0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Santos Defensive Weakness2.2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Key Player ThreatsViveros 12 goals, Leozinho 3.25 shots per 90
Positive
Recent Form PointsAtletico Paranaense 13, Santos 4 (last 5 games)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Atletico Paranaense's disciplined defense and effective attack give them a tactical edge over Santos, whose defensive vulnerabilities are pronounced. The visitors' consistent form and superior league position underpin in their ability to secure a win in this Serie A clash.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Atletico Paranaense's defensive resilience combined with their attacking efficiency makes them the clear favorite here, especially against a Santos side struggling to keep clean sheets.”

Key Data Signals

Atletico Paranaense to Win evidence

Atletico Paranaense ranks 3rd with 37 points, Santos 16th with 22 points.

Atletico Paranaense concedes only 0.4 goals per game; Santos concedes 2.2.

Santos has a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate, Atletico Paranaense 40%.

Atletico Paranaense averages 5.5 corners per game, Santos 3.5.

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico Paranaense to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.1, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Santos' recent matches show a trend towards high-scoring games, while Atletico Paranaense's defensive discipline suggests a tactical battle with potential for key moments rather than a goal-fest.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Santos5.2
Avg corners for
Atletico Paranaense5.25
Santos9.6
Avg total corners
Atletico Paranaense10.25
Santos3
Avg yellow cards
Atletico Paranaense2.75
Santos14.8
Avg shots
Atletico Paranaense11.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 60% · edge +8.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Atletico Paranaense averages more corners (5.5) and fewer yellow cards (1.75) than Santos, who average 3.5 corners and 3 yellows. This indicates Atletico Paranaense applies sustained pressure with disciplined defending, while Santos may concede set-piece opportunities and risk disciplinary issues.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santos1.6
Avg goals scored
Atletico Paranaense1.4
Santos2.2
Avg goals conceded
Atletico Paranaense0.4
Santos80%
BTTS rate
Atletico Paranaense40%
Santos100%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico Paranaense40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Santos' matches have featured a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate and 80% BTTS rate, indicating open, high-scoring games. Atletico Paranaense's lower Over 2.5 and BTTS rates suggest a more controlled approach. This contrast suggests potential for goals but also defensive discipline from Atletico Paranaense.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAtletico Paranaense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The for Atletico Paranaense to win reflect strong value, with a of 70% versus an implied market chance of 26.7%. This significant indicates the market underestimates Atletico Paranaense's chances, making the away win a compelling bet at current prices.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santos

DLWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
25 Jul 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-2
16 Jul 2026A Botafogo1-2
31 May 2026H Vitoria3-1
23 May 2026A Gremio2-3
17 May 2026H Coritiba0-3

Atletico Paranaense

DWWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
30 Jul 2026A Corinthians0-0
25 Jul 2026H Internacional2-0
23 Jul 2026A Sao Paulo2-1
30 May 2026H Mirassol1-0
24 May 2026A Remo2-1
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Paranaense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Atletico Paranaense has collected 13 points in their last five matches, showcasing consistent winning form. Santos has managed only 4 points in the same period, reflecting struggles in both attack and defense. This recent momentum favors Atletico Paranaense's and tactical execution heading into the match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Santos wins
2Draws
5Atletico Paranaense wins
12 Feb 2026Atletico Paranaense v Santos2-1
03 Dec 2023Atletico Paranaense v Santos3-0
05 Aug 2023Santos v Atletico Paranaense1-1
28 Sep 2022Santos v Atletico Paranaense2-0
04 Jun 2022Atletico Paranaense v Santos2-2
30 Oct 2021Atletico Paranaense v Santos0-1
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Paranaense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.1 goals per game, indicating balanced encounters. While Atletico Paranaense has had competitive results, the sample does not strongly favor either side, suggesting current form and tactical setups will be more decisive than historical meetings.
Season team stats

Serie A

Santos21
Played
Atletico Paranaense22
Santos1.4
Avg goals for
Atletico Paranaense1.4
Santos1.7
Avg goals against
Atletico Paranaense0.9
Santos4
Clean sheets
Atletico Paranaense8
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Paranaense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Load more odds for this section
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Atletico Paranaense's season-long defensive record of 0.4 goals conceded per game is among the best in the league, underpinning their solidity. Their attack, while less prolific than Santos, is efficient and supported by key players. Santos' high goals conceded average (2.2) highlights defensive vulnerabilities that Atletico Paranaense can exploit.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Atletico Paranaense4022124611
17Santos2221579-6
The league table shows Atletico Paranaense firmly in the top three, pushing for title contention or continental qualification, while Santos languishes near the relegation zone. This gap reflects differing team quality and season objectives, adding pressure on Santos and for Atletico Paranaense.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Santos Over 2.5
40%Atletico Paranaense Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.1, indicating moderate scoring. Santos' recent matches show a trend towards high-scoring games, while Atletico Paranaense's defensive discipline suggests a tactical battle with potential for key moments rather than a goal-fest.

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