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Bahia crestBahia
v
Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama

Serie A | Sun 09 Aug, 20:00

Bahia v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Tue 08 Sep 2026, 21:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bahia face Vasco DA Gama in Serie A on Sun 09 Aug, 20:00. A 2-1 scoreline fits Bahia's strong home performance and attacking volume, led by Luciano Juba, combined with Vasco's ability to score on the counter despite their poor away league record.

BT4Y best bet

S like standard Match Result or Both Teams to Score independently

  • At 11/4, S like standard Match Result or Both Teams to Score independently implies roughly 27%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 36%.
  • Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: Fonte Nova Pressure Meets Vasco’s Away Problem.
  • Bahia need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Bahia on 9 and Vasco DA Gama on 1.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Bahia and 40% for Vasco DA Gama.
  • S like standard Match Result or Both Teams to Score independently needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.2 for Bahia and 0.4 for Vasco DA Gama are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 36% for S like standard Match Result or Both Teams to Score independently sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price. Bahia need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Bahia on 9 and Vasco DA Gama on 1. Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: Fonte Nova Pressure Meets Vasco’s Away Problem.

Model chance vs price36% model chance against roughly 27% implied
Positive
Bahia need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: Fonte Nova Pressure Meets.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Bahia Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because bahia vs Vasco da Gama: Fonte Nova Pressure Meets Vasco’s Away Problem. Bahia need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Bahia on 9 and Vasco DA Gama on 1. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

S like standard Match Result or Both Teams to Score independently evidence

Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: Fonte Nova Pressure Meets Vasco’s Away Problem.

Bahia need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Bahia on 9 and Vasco DA Gama on 1.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Bahia and 40% for Vasco DA Gama.

Bahia Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.2 for Bahia and 0.4 for Vasco DA Gama are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

S like standard Match Result or Both Teams to Score independently notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bahia1.2
Avg goals scored
Vasco DA Gama0.4
Bahia0.6
Avg goals conceded
Vasco DA Gama2
Bahia60%
BTTS rate
Vasco DA Gama40%
Bahia20%
Over 2.5 goals
Vasco DA Gama40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 54% · edge +9.8 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bahia

DDDWW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 6D 2L
30 Jul 2026A Fluminense0-0
26 Jul 2026H Corinthians1-1
21 Jul 2026A Atletico-MG1-1
17 Jul 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-0
30 May 2026H Botafogo2-1

Vasco DA Gama

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
26 Jul 2026H Mirassol1-1
16 Jul 2026A Vitoria0-1
31 May 2026H Atletico-MG0-1
25 May 2026H RB Bragantino0-3
16 May 2026A Internacional1-4
Market aligned with main pickBahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 66% · edge +12.2 pts
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
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Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Bahia4326111058
17Vasco DA Gama25256712-13
Bahia sit in position 5, while Vasco DA Gama sit in position 17, so table pressure belongs in the S like standard Match Result or Both Teams to Score independently assessment.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 66% · edge +12.2 pts
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
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Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Bahia Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bahia6.4
Avg corners for
Vasco DA Gama4.8
Bahia11.6
Avg total corners
Vasco DA Gama9
Bahia2.2
Avg yellow cards
Vasco DA Gama1
Bahia17
Avg shots
Vasco DA Gama17.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 62% · edge +3.4 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Bahia wins
2Draws
3Vasco DA Gama wins
12 Feb 2026Vasco DA Gama v Bahia0-1
23 Nov 2025Bahia v Vasco DA Gama1-0
24 Sep 2025Vasco DA Gama v Bahia3-1
29 Oct 2024Vasco DA Gama v Bahia3-2
27 Jun 2024Bahia v Vasco DA Gama2-1
03 Sep 2023Bahia v Vasco DA Gama1-1
Market aligned with main pickBahia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The head-to-head sample gives context for Bahia to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie A

Bahia26
Played
Vasco DA Gama25
Bahia1.5
Avg goals for
Vasco DA Gama1.1
Bahia1.2
Avg goals against
Vasco DA Gama1.6
Bahia8
Clean sheets
Vasco DA Gama2
Market aligned with main pickBahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 66% · edge +12.2 pts
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Load more odds for this section
Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Season data supports Bahia Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Bahia Over 2.5
40%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Bahia sit at 20% and Vasco DA Gama sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.