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Serie A | Sun 09 Aug, 20:00

Bahia v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Sat 08 Aug 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bahia hosts Vasco da Gama in a crucial Serie A clash at Arena Fonte Nova, where Bahia aims to capitalize on their unbeaten home record against Vasco and strong territorial control. Sitting fifth in the league, Bahia seeks to convert possession control and frequent dangerous attacks into a vital win to maintain their push for a Copa Libertadores spot. Vasco da Gama, struggling with a poor away record and key suspensions, arrive with recent cup scoring momentum but face pressure to break their winless away streak. The tactical battle will see Bahia pressing high and controlling possession, while Vasco rely on counter-attacks and defensive discipline to threaten.

BT4Y best bet

Bahia to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Bahia unbeaten in last eight home league meetings with Vasco da Gama.
  • Bahia averages 57% possession and 52.19 dangerous attacks per game, showing strong territorial control.
  • Vasco da Gama have scored in recent cup matches despite poor away league form, supporting BTTS.
  • Key absences for Bahia include Erick Pulga and Everton Ribeiro, potentially affecting attacking rhythm.
  • Goalkeeper Ronaldo’s 84.8% save rate and five clean sheets bolster Bahia’s defensive stability.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Bahia to Win & Both Teams to Score highly with a 44.5% chance, well above the implied 26.7% probability, indicating strong value. Bahia’s home control, averaging over 52 dangerous attacks per game and solid defensive performances, supports their winning potential. Meanwhile, Vasco da Gama’s recent cup scoring form and persistent away defensive vulnerabilities suggest they will find the net despite their league struggles. This combination of home control and away scoring threat aligns well with the combined bet. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model chance vs implied odds44.5% vs 26.7%
Strong positive
Bahia home attacking control52.19 dangerous attacks per game
Strong positive
Vasco da Gama away defensive fragility0 clean sheets in last 5 away matches
Positive
Vasco recent cup scoring form3-1 win with multiple scorers
Positive
Bahia key absencesErick Pulga, Everton Ribeiro suspended
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bahia’s strong home form and territorial control give them the edge to secure victory, while Vasco’s recent cup scoring suggests they will breach Bahia’s defense. This bet captures the tactical dynamic of a dominant home side facing a counter-attacking opponent capable of scoring, making it a compelling selection for this fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and BTTS rationale

“Bahia’s unbeaten home record combined with Vasco’s away struggles sets the stage for a competitive match where both sides are likely to score. The home side’s territorial pressure and attacking volume should ultimately prevail.”

Key Data Signals

Bahia to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Bahia unbeaten in last eight home league meetings with Vasco da Gama.

Bahia averages 57% possession and 52.19 dangerous attacks per game, showing strong territorial control.

Vasco da Gama have scored in recent cup matches despite poor away league form, supporting BTTS.

Key absences for Bahia include Erick Pulga and Everton Ribeiro, potentially affecting attacking rhythm.

What To Watch In The Data

Bahia to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.1 per match, indicating a moderately open contest.
  • Bahia’s recent home unbeaten streak against Vasco and their tendency to generate high possession and dangerous attacks suggest a tempo favoring multiple goals.
  • This trend supports the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, driven by Bahia’s attacking pressure and Vasco’s counter-attacking opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bahia1.2
Avg goals scored
Vasco DA Gama0.4
Bahia0.6
Avg goals conceded
Vasco DA Gama2
Bahia60%
BTTS rate
Vasco DA Gama40%
Bahia20%
Over 2.5 goals
Vasco DA Gama40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 54% · edge +9.8 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Both teams have shown goal-scoring ability recently, with Bahia averaging 1.2 goals per game and Vasco 0.4 in league play, but Vasco’s cup form suggests higher attacking potential. Bahia’s 60% BTTS rate and Vasco’s 40% rate indicate a reasonable likelihood both sides will score. The Under 3.5 goals context fits a competitive match with a probable 2-1 or similar scoreline, balancing offensive threat and defensive caution.

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Useful next reads

more Serie A analysisfull betting preview for Bahia v Vasco DA Gamacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bahia

DDDWW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 6D 2L
30 Jul 2026A Fluminense0-0
26 Jul 2026H Corinthians1-1
21 Jul 2026A Atletico-MG1-1
17 Jul 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-0
30 May 2026H Botafogo2-1

Vasco DA Gama

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
26 Jul 2026H Mirassol1-1
16 Jul 2026A Vitoria0-1
31 May 2026H Atletico-MG0-1
25 May 2026H RB Bragantino0-3
16 May 2026A Internacional1-4
Market aligned with main pickBahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 66% · edge +12.2 pts
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Load more odds for this section
Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Bahia’s recent form shows 9 points from their last matches with a solid defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while Vasco has struggled with just 1 point and 2 goals conceded per game. Bahia’s 20% Over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate contrast with Vasco’s 40% Over 2.5 and 40% BTTS, reflecting Bahia’s more consistent performance and Vasco’s sporadic scoring, supporting the combined pick’s rationale.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Bahia32218854
19Vasco DA Gama2120569-8
Bahia’s fifth-place position with 32 points from 21 matches places them close to Copa Libertadores qualification, increasing their motivation to secure home wins. Vasco da Gama’s 19th place and 21 points from 20 matches reflect relegation pressure and poor away form, intensifying their need to score but also exposing defensive frailties, which shapes the tactical urgency of this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 66% · edge +12.2 pts
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Load more odds for this section
Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The current of 3.75 for Bahia to Win & Both Teams to Score reflect a price-sensitive value opportunity, as the model estimates a 44.5% chance versus the 26.7% implied probability. This discrepancy highlights the bet’s appeal, driven by Bahia’s home control and Vasco’s ability to score despite away difficulties. movement upward would further enhance value, but the present price already offers a strong incentive to back this selection.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bahia7
Avg corners for
Vasco DA Gama4.8
Bahia12
Avg total corners
Vasco DA Gama9
Bahia2.25
Avg yellow cards
Vasco DA Gama1
Bahia16
Avg shots
Vasco DA Gama17.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 62% · edge +4.1 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Bahia’s average of 7 corners per game and 16 shots, including 4.25 on target, reflect sustained pressure and attacking intent, while Vasco’s 4.8 corners and 17.2 shots with 4.8 on target show counter-attacking threat. Discipline-wise, Bahia averages 2.25 yellow cards per game versus Vasco’s 1, suggesting Bahia’s aggressive territorial play may lead to more fouls and set-piece opportunities, supporting the dynamic nature of the match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Bahia wins
2Draws
3Vasco DA Gama wins
12 Feb 2026Vasco DA Gama v Bahia0-1
23 Nov 2025Bahia v Vasco DA Gama1-0
24 Sep 2025Vasco DA Gama v Bahia3-1
29 Oct 2024Vasco DA Gama v Bahia3-2
27 Jun 2024Bahia v Vasco DA Gama2-1
03 Sep 2023Bahia v Vasco DA Gama1-1
Market aligned with main pickBahia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The head-to-head record shows Bahia unbeaten in their last eight home league meetings with Vasco, providing psychological and tactical . While Vasco’s away struggles persist, the historical data supports Bahia’s winning edge but also acknowledges Vasco’s ability to score, aligning well with the combined pick of Bahia to Win & Both Teams to Score.
Season team stats

Serie A

Bahia21
Played
Vasco DA Gama20
Bahia1.4
Avg goals for
Vasco DA Gama1.2
Bahia1.2
Avg goals against
Vasco DA Gama1.6
Bahia6
Clean sheets
Vasco DA Gama1
Market aligned with main pickBahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 66% · edge +12.2 pts
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Load more odds for this section
Bahia to WinBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Bahia’s season-long attacking output of 1.2 goals per game and defensive solidity with 0.6 goals conceded underpin their home advantage and winning chances. Vasco’s lower scoring rate and higher goals conceded away from home highlight their defensive vulnerabilities and reliance on counter-attacks, reinforcing the expectation of both teams scoring but Bahia prevailing.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Bahia Over 2.5
40%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.1 per match, indicating a moderately open contest. Bahia’s recent home unbeaten streak against Vasco and their tendency to generate high possession and dangerous attacks suggest a tempo favoring multiple goals. This trend supports the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, driven by Bahia’s attacking pressure and Vasco’s counter-attacking opportunities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Bahia v Vasco DA Gama prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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