Football Stats Hub

Palmeiras crestPalmeiras
v
Internacional crestInternacional

Serie A | Sun 09 Aug, 20:00

Palmeiras v Internacional Stats

Data last updated: Sat 08 Aug 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras host Internacional in a crucial Serie A clash where tactical intensity and physical battles will shape the outcome. Palmeiras lead the league and seek to maintain momentum, while Internacional fight to climb from the relegation zone. Both teams rely on aggressive pressing and wide play, setting the stage for a high-tempo encounter with frequent duels and fouls. This fixture promises tight midfield contests and defensive challenges, with disciplinary action likely to influence the flow and final result as both sides push for vital points.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Palmeiras average 2.4 yellow cards per game, Internacional 1.8, indicating a physical contest.
  • Both teams engage in aggressive pressing and frequent fouls, raising card risk.
  • Key players like Victor Gabriel and Luis Felipe have high card risk indexes, increasing chances of bookings.
  • Recent form shows Palmeiras' strong attacking pressure but also defensive intensity, contributing to fouls and cards.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 65.3% chance for over 3.5 cards, reflecting the fixture's physical nature and tactical demands. Palmeiras and Internacional both commit fouls regularly, with Palmeiras averaging 2.4 yellows per match and Internacional 1.8. Key players such as Victor Gabriel and Luis Felipe have elevated card risk profiles, supporting the likelihood of multiple bookings. The match's high stakes and aggressive playing styles suggest sustained physical engagement, making over 3.5 cards a plausible outcome. No price warnings apply, allowing a standard stake approach.

Average Yellow Cards per MatchPalmeiras 2.4, Internacional 1.8
Strong positive
Player Card RiskVictor Gabriel, Luis Felipe high card risk
Positive
Match IntensityHigh stakes and aggressive pressing
Strong positive
Recent Form FoulsConsistent fouling and duels
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a fiercely contested match with Palmeiras pushing to maintain their lead and Internacional battling to avoid relegation. The tactical emphasis on pressing and wide attacks will generate numerous fouls and disciplinary actions. Given the teams' card averages and key players' aggressive styles, over 3.5 cards is a sensible selection reflecting the fixture's combative nature.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · disciplinary and tactical intensity

“This Serie A clash is set for intense physical battles, with both sides prone to tactical fouling and aggressive duels. The card count should rise as Palmeiras and Internacional vie for control, making over 3.5 cards a compelling angle.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Palmeiras average 2.4 yellow cards per game, Internacional 1.8, indicating a physical contest.

Both teams engage in aggressive pressing and frequent fouls, raising card risk.

Key players like Victor Gabriel and Luis Felipe have high card risk indexes, increasing chances of bookings.

Recent form shows Palmeiras' strong attacking pressure but also defensive intensity, contributing to fouls and cards.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating moderately open games.
  • However, the trend towards physical contests and tactical fouling is evident, with both teams showing a propensity for aggressive duels.
  • This supports a scenario where over 2.5 goals is possible but more importantly, the tempo and physicality drive card accumulation.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Palmeiras4.4
Avg corners for
Internacional4.2
Palmeiras10.2
Avg total corners
Internacional8.8
Palmeiras2.4
Avg yellow cards
Internacional1.8
Palmeiras15.2
Avg shots
Internacional15.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The match features high shot volumes from both sides, with Palmeiras averaging 15.2 shots and Internacional 15.6, but defensive pressure and fouling are prominent. Palmeiras' 2.4 yellows per game and Internacional's 1.8 reflect frequent fouls and tactical challenges, contributing to a higher card count. Corner counts are balanced, but the physicality in duels and fouls is the key driver for cards.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Serie A analysisPalmeiras v Internacional predictioncards betting researchcorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Palmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Internacional Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Internacional to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The over 3.5 cards market aligns well with the fixture's physical profile and player card risk data. With Palmeiras averaging 2.4 yellows and Internacional 1.8, the reflect a realistic chance of multiple bookings. The market is fairly priced with no significant , suggesting a watchful but confident stance on this bet.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Palmeiras

WLWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
30 Jul 2026A Vitoria4-0
26 Jul 2026H Atletico-MG1-2
22 Jul 2026A Coritiba3-1
31 May 2026H Chapecoense-sc1-0
24 May 2026A Flamengo3-0

Internacional

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
29 Jul 2026H Flamengo1-1
25 Jul 2026A Atletico Paranaense0-2
23 Jul 2026H Cruzeiro1-2
31 May 2026A RB Bragantino1-3
23 May 2026A Vitoria0-2
Best odds for this sectionPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Internacional Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Internacional to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Palmeiras have collected 12 points recently with a strong attacking output but also concede fouls and cards due to their pressing style. Internacional's recent form shows only 1 point with defensive struggles and higher fouling rates. This contrast suggests a match with intense physicality and tactical fouling, supporting over 3.5 cards.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Palmeiras2.4
Avg goals scored
Internacional0.6
Palmeiras0.6
Avg goals conceded
Internacional2
Palmeiras40%
BTTS rate
Internacional60%
Palmeiras80%
Over 2.5 goals
Internacional40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Goal scoring is expected to be controlled with Palmeiras averaging 2.4 goals for and 0.6 against, while Internacional score less and concede more. Both teams to score is less likely, indicating a tactical focus on defensive solidity. This defensive approach supports a game where fouls and cards accumulate as teams disrupt attacks rather than open play goals.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Palmeiras wins
2Draws
2Internacional wins
13 Feb 2026Internacional v Palmeiras1-3
13 Sep 2025Palmeiras v Internacional4-1
16 Apr 2025Internacional v Palmeiras0-1
04 Aug 2024Internacional v Palmeiras1-1
18 Apr 2024Palmeiras v Internacional0-1
12 Nov 2023Palmeiras v Internacional3-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Palmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Internacional to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows moderately competitive games with an average of 2.3 goals. While goal trends are balanced, the matches have featured physical play and tactical fouling, which supports the expectation of multiple cards in this fixture. Past meetings provide a solid background for the disciplinary market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Palmeiras4721145222
17Internacional2221579-4
Palmeiras lead the Serie A table, while Internacional sit near the relegation zone, creating a high-pressure environment. Internacional's need to avoid defeat may increase defensive fouling and tactical fouls, while Palmeiras' title ambitions encourage assertive play. This dynamic elevates the likelihood of disciplinary sanctions.
Season team stats

Serie A

Palmeiras21
Played
Internacional21
Palmeiras1.8
Avg goals for
Internacional1.1
Palmeiras0.8
Avg goals against
Internacional1.3
Palmeiras8
Clean sheets
Internacional4
Best odds for this sectionPalmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
Internacional Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Internacional to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
Across the season, Palmeiras average 2.4 yellow cards per match and Internacional 1.8, reflecting consistent disciplinary challenges. Both teams' defensive and midfield roles involve aggressive pressing and frequent fouls, which typically translate into multiple bookings per game, reinforcing the over 3.5 cards selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Palmeiras Over 2.5
40%Internacional Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating moderately open games. However, the trend towards physical contests and tactical fouling is evident, with both teams showing a propensity for aggressive duels. This supports a scenario where over 2.5 goals is possible but more importantly, the tempo and physicality drive card accumulation.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Palmeiras v Internacional prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Cruzeiro v MirassolSerie A · Sun 09 Aug 15:00Bahia v Vasco DA GamaSerie A · Sun 09 Aug 20:00Santos v Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · Sun 09 Aug 22:30RB Bragantino v CorinthiansSerie A · Sun 09 Aug 22:30

Competition and hubs

Serie A hubmore Serie A analysisPalmeiras v Internacional predictioncards betting researchcorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre