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QPR crestQPR
v
Preston crestPreston

Championship | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

QPR v Preston Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

QPR hosts Preston in a Championship clash where QPR's recent form and league standing suggest a strong home advantage. QPR sits comfortably in 5th place with 12 points, while Preston struggles near the bottom with just 3 points. QPR's defensive solidity and attacking efficiency contrast with Preston's difficulties in scoring and conceding more goals. This match presents a tactical battle where QPR's control and momentum at home could be decisive against a Preston side seeking to arrest their poor run.

BT4Y match pick

QPR to Win

  • QPR ranks 5th with 12 points; Preston is 23rd with 3 points.
  • QPR averages 14.8 shots and 4 shots on target per game, higher than Preston's 12.25 and 2.75 respectively.
  • QPR concedes fewer goals (0.8 per game) compared to Preston's 1.6, indicating defensive strength.
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but QPR's home form and goal threat are superior.
  • QPR's Ilias Chair leads with 2 goals and 1.54 shots on target per 90 minutes, enhancing their attacking edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors QPR to win due to their superior recent form, stronger attacking output, and more robust defensive record compared to Preston. QPR's higher average shots and shots on target per game indicate better chance creation, while their lower goals conceded per match reflects defensive stability. The 12.4% and 69.5% at of 1.75 show clear value. No data limitations affect , supporting a standard stake recommendation for this pick.

Model Chance69.5%
Strong positive
Value Edge12.4%
Strong positive
QPR Shots per Game14.8
Positive
Preston Goals Against per Game1.6
Positive
Recent Points (QPR vs Preston)8 vs 3
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

QPR's home advantage and superior recent form make them the likely winners in this fixture. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with a solid defensive record, contrasts with Preston's struggles in both attack and defense, making QPR the sensible choice for victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“QPR's balanced attack and disciplined defense provide a tactical edge over Preston, whose current form and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a tough challenge ahead.”

Key Data Signals

QPR to Win evidence

QPR ranks 5th with 12 points; Preston is 23rd with 3 points.

QPR averages 14.8 shots and 4 shots on target per game, higher than Preston's 12.25 and 2.75 respectively.

QPR concedes fewer goals (0.8 per game) compared to Preston's 1.6, indicating defensive strength.

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but QPR's home form and goal threat are superior.

What To Watch In The Data

QPR to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, suggesting moderate scoring.
  • QPR's 40% Over 2.5 goals rate versus Preston's 60% indicates potential for a balanced tempo with chances for both sides, but defensive solidity may limit a high-scoring outcome.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

QPR

DDLWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 1L
12 Sep 2026A West Brom1-1
09 Sep 2026A Charlton0-0
05 Sep 2026H Middlesbrough0-1
02 Sep 2026H Cardiff2-1
29 Aug 2026A Blackburn2-1

Preston

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Preston yet.

Market aligned with main pickQPR to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 57% · edge -2.4 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 79%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
QPR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
QPR's recent form shows 8 points gained with a solid defensive record, contrasting with Preston's 3 points and higher goals conceded. This momentum difference favors QPR's and tactical execution, reinforcing their likelihood to secure victory in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

QPR1
Avg goals scored
Preston-
QPR0.8
Avg goals conceded
Preston-
QPR60%
BTTS rate
Preston-
QPR40%
Over 2.5 goals
Preston-
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but QPR's stronger defense and Preston's higher goals conceded suggest a controlled game with fewer goals. The data supports a cautious approach to BTTS, leaning towards a low-scoring match with QPR likely to keep a clean sheet or concede minimally.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickQPR to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 57% · edge -2.4 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
QPR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The for QPR to win at 1.75 reflect a market that underestimates their 69.5% , presenting clear value. This price is attractive given QPR's home form and Preston's struggles, making the selection a positive value bet rather than a price-sensitive watch.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6QPR wins
2Draws
2Preston wins
06 Apr 2026Preston v QPR1-1
09 Aug 2025QPR v Preston1-1
18 Apr 2025Preston v QPR1-2
21 Dec 2024QPR v Preston2-1
20 Apr 2024QPR v Preston1-0
01 Dec 2023Preston v QPR0-2
Market aligned with main pickQPR to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 57% · edge -2.4 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating moderately competitive encounters. While past meetings provide context, current form and squad dynamics suggest QPR's advantage is more decisive than historical data alone.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

QPR6.6
Avg corners for
Preston-
QPR10.6
Avg total corners
Preston-
QPR1.8
Avg yellow cards
Preston-
QPR14.8
Avg shots
Preston-
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 55% · edge +6.8 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
QPR averages more shots and shots on target than Preston, indicating offensive pressure likely to generate corners and fouls. Preston's higher average yellow cards per game suggest a physical approach that could lead to disciplinary actions, impacting game flow and QPR's attacking opportunities.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%QPR Over 2.5
-Preston Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, suggesting moderate scoring. QPR's 40% Over 2.5 goals rate versus Preston's 60% indicates potential for a balanced tempo with chances for both sides, but defensive solidity may limit a high-scoring outcome.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.