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Cardiff crestCardiff
v
Charlton crestCharlton

Championship | Sat 19 Sep, 12:30

Cardiff v Charlton Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cardiff face Charlton in Championship on Sat 19 Sep, 12:30. Cardiff come in with 2 recent points and 0.8 goals per match, while Charlton have 6 points and 0.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 2.3, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 59%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Cardiff and 20% for Charlton, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Cardiff are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.8 goals per match, with Charlton at 0.4.
  • BTTS rates of 60% for Cardiff and 20% for Charlton show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 59% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Cardiff and 20% for Charlton, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price59% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Cardiff and 20%.Visible data support
Positive
Cardiff are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.8.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Cardiff are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.8 goals per match, with Charlton at 0.4. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Cardiff are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.8 goals per match, with Charlton at 0.4.

BTTS rates of 60% for Cardiff and 20% for Charlton show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Cardiff8.2
Avg corners for
Charlton5
Cardiff11.6
Avg total corners
Charlton11.8
Cardiff2.2
Avg yellow cards
Charlton1.4
Cardiff19.4
Avg shots
Charlton10.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13.8 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cardiff0.8
Avg goals scored
Charlton0.4
Cardiff1.6
Avg goals conceded
Charlton1
Cardiff60%
BTTS rate
Charlton20%
Cardiff40%
Over 2.5 goals
Charlton20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13.8 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Charlton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Charlton to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Cardiff Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cardiff

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 4D 3L
12 Sep 2026A Bolton0-1
08 Sep 2026H Stoke City1-1
05 Sep 2026A Portsmouth0-2
02 Sep 2026A QPR1-2
29 Aug 2026H Sheffield Utd2-2

Charlton

DDLDW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 1L
12 Sep 2026H Portsmouth0-0
09 Sep 2026H QPR0-0
05 Sep 2026A Stoke City0-4
02 Sep 2026A West Brom1-1
29 Aug 2026H Preston1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Charlton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Charlton to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Cardiff Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Cardiff to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Cardiff wins
5Draws
2Charlton wins
30 Jun 2020Cardiff v Charlton0-0
23 Nov 2019Charlton v Cardiff2-2
13 Feb 2016Charlton v Cardiff0-0
26 Sep 2015Cardiff v Charlton2-1
07 Mar 2015Cardiff v Charlton1-2
26 Dec 2014Charlton v Cardiff1-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Charlton to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Cardiff to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Championship

Cardiff7
Played
Charlton7
Cardiff1
Avg goals for
Charlton0.9
Cardiff1.6
Avg goals against
Charlton1
Cardiff0
Clean sheets
Charlton3
Best odds for this sectionCharlton Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Charlton to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Cardiff Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Cardiff to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Season data supports Charlton Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Charlton127331-1
21Cardiff47043-4
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Cardiff Over 2.5
20%Charlton Over 2.5
2.63H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Cardiff sit at 40% and Charlton sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.63 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.