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QPR crestQPR
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Middlesbrough crestMiddlesbrough

Championship | Sat 05 Sep, 15:00

QPR v Middlesbrough Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

QPR and Middlesbrough meet in a Championship clash where both sides have shown attacking intent early in the season. QPR sit second with 10 points, while Middlesbrough are fifth with 7 points, reflecting competitive form. Both teams average 1.75 goals scored per game and have a 75% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating open, goal-rich encounters. This fixture promises tactical battles with offensive emphasis, as both sides seek to maintain momentum and capitalize on their scoring capabilities in a high-stakes league environment.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average 1.75 goals per game this season
  • QPR and Middlesbrough each have a 75% Over 2.5 Goals match rate
  • Recent form shows QPR conceding only 0.75 goals per game, Middlesbrough 1.25
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.8 over last 10 meetings
  • Both teams average 17.5 shots per game, indicating offensive pressure

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 75.9% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, well above the implied market chance of 57.8%, reflecting strong value. Both QPR and Middlesbrough demonstrate consistent attacking output, averaging 1.75 goals each per game, with a high frequency of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. The head-to-head average of 3.8 goals per game further supports an open game scenario. Shot volumes and goal threat from key players bolster the expectation of multiple goals. No data limitations affect in this prediction.

Model chance75.9%
Strong positive
Implied chance57.8%
Strong positive
Recent goals per gameQPR 1.75, Middlesbrough 1.75
Strong positive
Head-to-head average goals3.8 goals per game
Positive
Shots per gameBoth teams 17.5 shots
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as QPR and Middlesbrough both prioritize offense early in the season. Their high goals-per-game averages and aggressive shot profiles suggest multiple scoring chances, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection. The data supports a lively encounter with goals likely from both sides.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking style

“QPR and Middlesbrough’s offensive patterns and recent form strongly indicate a game with several goals. Their balanced attacking threat and history of high-scoring matches make Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 1.75 goals per game this season

QPR and Middlesbrough each have a 75% Over 2.5 Goals match rate

Recent form shows QPR conceding only 0.75 goals per game, Middlesbrough 1.25

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.8 over last 10 meetings

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten matches between these teams, the average goals scored is 3.8, indicating a historical trend towards high-scoring games.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and attacking statistics, suggests a continued pattern of matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

QPR4.5
Avg corners for
Middlesbrough5.75
QPR8.25
Avg total corners
Middlesbrough10.25
QPR1
Avg yellow cards
Middlesbrough0.75
QPR17.5
Avg shots
Middlesbrough17.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 58% · edge -0.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams average high shot counts (17.5 per game) and maintain active attacking pressure, leading to numerous corners and set-piece opportunities. Discipline is moderate, with low yellow card averages, suggesting a game focused more on attacking play than stoppages or defensive fouling.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

QPR1.75
Avg goals scored
Middlesbrough1.75
QPR0.75
Avg goals conceded
Middlesbrough1.25
QPR75%
BTTS rate
Middlesbrough100%
QPR75%
Over 2.5 goals
Middlesbrough75%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both QPR and Middlesbrough have scored and conceded regularly, with BTTS rates at 75% and 100% respectively. Their matches frequently surpass 2.5 goals, supported by an average of 3.8 goals in their last 10 head-to-head encounters, highlighting a strong tendency for open, goal-filled games.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
QPR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
QPR to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively with implying a 57.8% chance, while the model estimates a 75.9% probability, indicating clear value. This price gap suggests bettors can capitalize on the high likelihood of goals given both teams’ offensive strengths and recent scoring trends.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

QPR

WWDW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
02 Sep 2026H Cardiff2-1
29 Aug 2026A Blackburn2-1
22 Aug 2026H Bolton0-0
15 Aug 2026A Portsmouth3-1

Middlesbrough

DWLW
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
02 Sep 2026A Burnley1-1
29 Aug 2026H West Brom3-1
22 Aug 2026A Blackburn1-2
15 Aug 2026H Lincoln2-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
QPR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
QPR to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Middlesbrough to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Recent form data shows both teams consistently involved in high-scoring matches, with QPR’s Over 2.5 rate at 75% and Middlesbrough’s at 75%, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals. QPR’s defensive solidity is slightly better, but Middlesbrough’s attacking persistence balances the outlook towards an open game.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3QPR wins
1Draws
6Middlesbrough wins
08 Mar 2026QPR v Middlesbrough0-4
13 Dec 2025Middlesbrough v QPR3-1
11 Mar 2025Middlesbrough v QPR2-1
05 Nov 2024QPR v Middlesbrough1-4
09 Mar 2024QPR v Middlesbrough0-2
02 Sep 2023Middlesbrough v QPR0-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
QPR to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Middlesbrough to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The head-to-head record over the last ten meetings shows an average of 3.8 goals per game, supporting the expectation of an open and attacking fixture. While past results are not definitive, this trend aligns with both teams’ current offensive profiles and recent scoring rates.
Season team stats

Championship

QPR4
Played
Middlesbrough4
QPR1.8
Avg goals for
Middlesbrough1.8
QPR0.8
Avg goals against
Middlesbrough1.3
QPR1
Clean sheets
Middlesbrough0
Best odds for this sectionQPR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
QPR to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Middlesbrough Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Middlesbrough to WinBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Season-long statistics reveal both teams scoring 1.75 goals per game and conceding between 0.75 and 1.25 goals, supporting a scenario conducive to Over 2.5 Goals. Their offensive output combined with moderate defensive concessions suggests matches with several goal-scoring opportunities.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2QPR1043104
5Middlesbrough742112
QPR’s second-place and Middlesbrough’s fifth-place standings reflect strong early-season performances, with both teams motivated to maintain momentum. This competitive context encourages attacking play to secure vital points, increasing the probability of a goal-rich encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%QPR Over 2.5
75%Middlesbrough Over 2.5
3.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches between these teams, the average goals scored is 3.8, indicating a historical trend towards high-scoring games. This trend, combined with recent form and attacking statistics, suggests a continued pattern of matches exceeding 2.5 goals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

QPR v Middlesbrough prediction

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