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Nautico Recife crestNautico Recife
v
Ceara crestCeara

Serie B | Wed 19 Aug, 01:30

Nautico Recife v Ceara Stats

Data last updated: Tue 18 Aug 2026, 07:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nautico Recife and Ceara meet in a Serie B clash where both sides are fighting to climb away from the relegation zone. Nautico Recife sits 15th with 27 points, just ahead of 16th-placed Ceara on 25 points, making this a vital fixture for both. Recent form shows tight defenses but a willingness to attack, with Nautico scoring once and Ceara averaging 1.6 goals per game in their last five matches. Both teams have shown a tendency to concede, setting up a contest where goals at both ends are likely. Tactical caution may be balanced by the need for points, adding intrigue to this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Nautico Recife has an 80% BTTS rate in recent games, indicating frequent goals conceded and scored.
  • Ceara averages 1.6 goals for and against per game recently, showing open play tendencies.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, supporting attacking intent.
  • Nautico Recife averages 13 shots with 3.8 on target per game, while Ceara averages 15 shots with 5.6 on target, highlighting offensive pressure.
  • Head-to-head matches average 1.5 goals, suggesting moderate scoring but potential for both sides to find the net.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 76% chance for both teams to score, reflecting the attacking and defensive profiles of Nautico Recife and Ceara. Both sides have shown vulnerability at the back and a willingness to commit players forward, supported by recent BTTS rates of 80% and 60% respectively. Shot volumes and goal averages underline the likelihood of goals at both ends. The price offers positive value with a 21.4% edge, making this a compelling selection based on balanced offensive threat and defensive openness. No data limitations affect in this pick.

BTTS Recent RateNautico 80%, Ceara 60%
Strong positive
Goals For/Against RecentNautico 1.0/1.0, Ceara 1.6/1.6
Strong positive
Shot VolumeNautico 13 shots, Ceara 15 shots per game
Positive
Model Confidence88%
Strong positive
Value Edge21.4% positive
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown a pattern of scoring and conceding in recent matches, making a Both Teams to Score bet tactically sound. Nautico Recife's home attack and Ceara's offensive output suggest goals at both ends, supported by their defensive vulnerabilities. This pick aligns well with the teams' current form and league context, offering a balanced and football-reasoned betting angle.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“Nautico Recife and Ceara's recent matches reveal a clear pattern of mutual goal concessions, making the Both Teams to Score market a logical choice. Their offensive intent combined with defensive lapses creates a fertile ground for goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Nautico Recife has an 80% BTTS rate in recent games, indicating frequent goals conceded and scored.

Ceara averages 1.6 goals for and against per game recently, showing open play tendencies.

Both teams have a 40% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, supporting attacking intent.

Nautico Recife averages 13 shots with 3.8 on target per game, while Ceara averages 15 shots with 5.6 on target, highlighting offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.5, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Recent trends in the last five matches for both teams show a 40% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, suggesting that while not frequent, higher-scoring games are possible due to tempo and attacking intent from both sides.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Nautico Recife5.2
Avg corners for
Ceara4.4
Nautico Recife11
Avg total corners
Ceara8.8
Nautico Recife3.6
Avg yellow cards
Ceara2.4
Nautico Recife13
Avg shots
Ceara15
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Nautico Recife averages 5.2 corners and 3.6 yellow cards per game, while Ceara averages 4.4 corners and 2.4 yellows, indicating moderate pressure and fouling. Shot volumes are high, with Nautico at 13 shots and Ceara at 15 per game, reflecting sustained attacking play and set-piece opportunities that can influence goal chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nautico Recife1
Avg goals scored
Ceara1.6
Nautico Recife1
Avg goals conceded
Ceara1.6
Nautico Recife80%
BTTS rate
Ceara60%
Nautico Recife40%
Over 2.5 goals
Ceara40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent form data shows Nautico Recife scoring and conceding at a rate of 1 goal per game, while Ceara averages 1.6 goals for and against, supporting an open game with goals at both ends. The BTTS rates of 80% and 60% respectively reinforce the expectation of mutual scoring in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Ceara to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Ceara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Nautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively with implying a 54.6% chance, while the model estimates a 76% likelihood, indicating clear value. This positive suggests the market underestimates the probability of both sides scoring, likely due to defensive weaknesses and offensive pressure seen in recent matches.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nautico Recife

DDDWL
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 4L
14 Aug 2026A Ponte Preta1-1
09 Aug 2026H Atletico Goianiense1-1
26 Jul 2026A Criciuma0-0
23 Jul 2026H Londrina2-1
17 Jul 2026A CRB1-2

Ceara

LWWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
15 Aug 2026H Cuiaba1-3
08 Aug 2026H Ponte Preta2-0
26 Jul 2026A São Bernardo4-3
22 Jul 2026H CRB0-1
17 Jul 2026A America Mineiro1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Ceara to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Ceara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Nautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Both teams have shown recent form consistent with goal-scoring and conceding. Nautico Recife has earned 6 points with 1 goal for and against in the last five matches, while Ceara has 7 points with 1.6 goals for and against. This balance of attack and defense underlines the likelihood of goals from both sides in this encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Nautico Recife wins
1Draws
5Ceara wins
12 Apr 2026Ceara v Nautico Recife1-0
23 Jan 2025Nautico Recife v Ceara1-0
15 Feb 2024Nautico Recife v Ceara0-0
25 Aug 2017Ceara v Nautico Recife1-0
27 May 2017Nautico Recife v Ceara0-2
15 Oct 2016Nautico Recife v Ceara1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Ceara to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Nautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 1.5 goals per game, a relatively modest scoring rate. While this suggests cautious encounters historically, recent attacking trends and current form data provide a stronger basis for expecting goals at both ends in this fixture.
Season team stats

Serie B

Nautico Recife22
Played
Ceara22
Nautico Recife1.2
Avg goals for
Ceara1
Nautico Recife1.2
Avg goals against
Ceara1.3
Nautico Recife6
Clean sheets
Ceara5
Best odds for this sectionCeara to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Ceara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Nautico Recife to WinBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Season-long statistics reveal that Nautico Recife and Ceara maintain similar attacking and defensive outputs, with both teams conceding and scoring around 1 to 1.6 goals per game. Their BTTS rates and goal averages highlight a pattern of open games where both sides find the net regularly, reinforcing the BTTS selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
15Nautico Recife27227690
16Ceara2522679-5
Nautico Recife and Ceara are closely ranked 15th and 16th respectively, both fighting to avoid relegation. This league position adds pressure to seek points, likely encouraging attacking play despite defensive risks. The standings context supports a competitive match with motivation for both teams to score.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Nautico Recife Over 2.5
40%Ceara Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.5, indicating moderate scoring. Recent trends in the last five matches for both teams show a 40% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, suggesting that while not frequent, higher-scoring games are possible due to tempo and attacking intent from both sides.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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