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Londrina crestLondrina
v
Atletico Goianiense crestAtletico Goianiense

Serie B | Tue 18 Aug, 23:30

Londrina v Atletico Goianiense Stats

Data last updated: Mon 17 Aug 2026, 07:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico Goianiense arrives in stronger form and position for this Serie B clash, sitting 11th with 32 points compared to Londrina's 18th place and 20 points. Atletico Goianiense has conceded fewer goals and boasts a more efficient attack, while Londrina struggles defensively despite creating more shots. The away side's tactical discipline and recent momentum suggest they can exploit Londrina's defensive vulnerabilities in this midweek fixture, making them the likely winners in a contest where defensive frailties and attacking efficiency will be decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Atletico Goianiense to Win

  • Atletico Goianiense ranks 11th with 32 points; Londrina is 18th with 20 points.
  • Atletico Goianiense concedes 0.8 goals per game vs Londrina's 1.8, showing defensive solidity.
  • Londrina averages 17 shots per game but scores only 0.6 goals, indicating poor finishing.
  • Atletico Goianiense's recent form yields 8 points, outperforming Londrina's single point.
  • Head-to-head average goals are 2.89, suggesting a moderately open game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Atletico Goianiense to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, defensive record, and league standing. Despite Londrina's higher shot volume, their low conversion and defensive lapses make them vulnerable. Atletico Goianiense's efficient attack and better defensive discipline underpin the strong probability. The at 2.55 offer positive value given the model's and the tactical context favoring the away side's solidity and momentum.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance39.2%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsAtletico Goianiense 8 vs Londrina 1
Strong positive
Defensive Goals AgainstAtletico Goianiense 0.8 vs Londrina 1.8
Strong positive
Shot Conversion EfficiencyLondrina low despite high shots
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Atletico Goianiense's tactical discipline and recent form make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their ability to limit goals conceded and capitalize on chances contrasts with Londrina's defensive struggles and poor finishing, providing a solid foundation for the away win prediction.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical edge for Atletico Goianiense

“Atletico Goianiense's defensive resilience combined with their efficient attack shapes a compelling case for victory, especially against a Londrina side that struggles to convert chances despite high shot counts.”

Key Data Signals

Atletico Goianiense to Win evidence

Atletico Goianiense ranks 11th with 32 points; Londrina is 18th with 20 points.

Atletico Goianiense concedes 0.8 goals per game vs Londrina's 1.8, showing defensive solidity.

Londrina averages 17 shots per game but scores only 0.6 goals, indicating poor finishing.

Atletico Goianiense's recent form yields 8 points, outperforming Londrina's single point.

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico Goianiense to Win notes

  • The last nine head-to-head matches average 2.89 goals, indicating a moderately open scoring trend.
  • Londrina's recent matches show a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, contrasting with Atletico Goianiense's 20%, suggesting Atletico Goianiense's defensive approach tempers goal volume.
  • This trend panel suggests a game with potential for goals but controlled tempo, where Atletico Goianiense's defensive discipline may limit scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Londrina0.6
Avg goals scored
Atletico Goianiense1
Londrina1.8
Avg goals conceded
Atletico Goianiense0.8
Londrina60%
BTTS rate
Atletico Goianiense40%
Londrina60%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico Goianiense20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 31%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent form shows Londrina with a 60% rate of both teams scoring and Over 2.5 goals, while Atletico Goianiense has a lower 40% BTTS and 20% Over 2.5 rate. This suggests Londrina's matches tend to be more open, but Atletico Goianiense's defensive discipline could limit goals. The average 2.89 goals in their nine meetings indicates moderate scoring, hinting at a balanced game with potential for goals but controlled by Atletico Goianiense's defense.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
Atletico Goianiense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The of 2.55 for Atletico Goianiense to win present clear value compared to the model's 70% win probability. This significant reflects the away side's superior form and defensive record. The market pricing correctly discounts Londrina's home advantage due to their poor recent results and defensive frailty, making the away win a strong betting angle without price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Londrina6.2
Avg corners for
Atletico Goianiense6.6
Londrina11.4
Avg total corners
Atletico Goianiense10.4
Londrina1.6
Avg yellow cards
Atletico Goianiense2.8
Londrina17
Avg shots
Atletico Goianiense13.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 67% · edge +2.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Both teams average similar corner counts (Londrina 6.2, Atletico Goianiense 6.6), indicating balanced territorial exchanges. Londrina commits fewer fouls and cards (1.6 yellows) than Atletico Goianiense (2.8 yellows), suggesting a more disciplined approach. Shot data shows Londrina takes more shots (17) but with fewer on target (3.8) than Atletico Goianiense (13.6 shots, 4.6 on target), highlighting Atletico Goianiense's better shot quality and finishing threat.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Londrina

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
15 Aug 2026A Sport Recife1-2
10 Aug 2026A Goias0-1
26 Jul 2026H Novorizontino1-4
23 Jul 2026A Nautico Recife1-2
18 Jul 2026H Botafogo SP0-0

Atletico Goianiense

LDWWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
15 Aug 2026H Vila Nova0-2
09 Aug 2026A Nautico Recife1-1
27 Jul 2026H Operario-PR3-1
24 Jul 2026A Cuiaba1-0
18 Jul 2026H Athletic Club0-0
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Atletico Goianiense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Atletico Goianiense's recent form is markedly better, accumulating 8 points compared to Londrina's single point in recent matches. This form differential is supported by a stronger defensive record and more efficient goal scoring. Londrina's struggles to convert chances and their defensive lapses have contributed to poor results, while Atletico Goianiense's momentum and tactical consistency underpin their favored status.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Londrina wins
2Draws
5Atletico Goianiense wins
13 Apr 2026Atletico Goianiense v Londrina2-1
17 Aug 2023Londrina v Atletico Goianiense0-2
09 May 2023Atletico Goianiense v Londrina2-1
05 Nov 2019Atletico Goianiense v Londrina2-1
02 Aug 2019Londrina v Atletico Goianiense1-1
31 Aug 2018Londrina v Atletico Goianiense4-1
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The nine previous meetings between these teams show an average of 2.89 goals per game, reflecting moderately open encounters. While this sample is reasonable, it does not strongly favor either side, so current form and tactical setups are more decisive. Atletico Goianiense's recent defensive improvements and form provide a stronger edge than historical results alone.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Londrina22
Played
Atletico Goianiense22
Londrina1.3
Avg goals for
Atletico Goianiense1.1
Londrina1.5
Avg goals against
Atletico Goianiense1
Londrina4
Clean sheets
Atletico Goianiense6
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
Atletico Goianiense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over the season, Atletico Goianiense has conceded only 0.8 goals per game, showcasing defensive solidity, while Londrina concedes 1.8, highlighting vulnerability. Atletico Goianiense's attack averages 1 goal per game, more efficient than Londrina's 0.6 despite fewer shots. These season-long stats emphasize Atletico Goianiense's balance and efficiency, supporting their likelihood to secure a win in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Atletico Goianiense32228861
18Londrina20225512-6
Atletico Goianiense sits comfortably in 11th place with 32 points, well clear of the relegation-threatened Londrina in 18th with 20 points. This points gap reflects Atletico Goianiense's superior consistency and competitiveness in Serie B. The standings context suggests Atletico Goianiense has more at stake to maintain or improve position, while Londrina faces pressure to avoid relegation, adding tactical urgency to the away side's advantage.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Londrina Over 2.5
20%Atletico Goianiense Over 2.5
2.89H2H avg goals
The last nine head-to-head matches average 2.89 goals, indicating a moderately open scoring trend. Londrina's recent matches show a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate, contrasting with Atletico Goianiense's 20%, suggesting Atletico Goianiense's defensive approach tempers goal volume. This trend panel suggests a game with potential for goals but controlled tempo, where Atletico Goianiense's defensive discipline may limit scoring opportunities.

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