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Fortaleza EC crestFortaleza EC
v
São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo

Serie B | Wed 19 Aug, 23:30

Fortaleza EC v São Bernardo Stats

Data last updated: Tue 18 Aug 2026, 07:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fortaleza EC hosts São Bernardo in a Serie B clash where defensive solidity and cautious tactics are expected to shape the contest. Fortaleza EC has conceded just 0.6 goals per game recently, while São Bernardo's attack has been inconsistent despite a higher scoring rate. Both teams have shown a tendency towards low-scoring matches, with Fortaleza EC registering only 20% over 2.5 goals in recent games. The fixture's stakes and tactical approaches suggest a tight encounter with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Fortaleza EC concedes only 0.6 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive discipline.
  • São Bernardo averages 1.6 goals scored but concedes 1.8, showing defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Fortaleza EC's over 2.5 goals rate is just 20%, reflecting a low-scoring trend.
  • São Bernardo's BTTS rate is high at 80%, but Fortaleza EC's defensive form may limit goals.
  • Recent head-to-head featured only 1 goal, supporting a low-scoring outlook.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting both teams' defensive tendencies and recent low-scoring matches. Fortaleza EC's solid defense and São Bernardo's inconsistent attack combine to reduce goal volume. The market price at 1.67 offers positive value with a 6.1% edge, making this a sensible selection. No data limitations affect , and the tactical context supports a cautious game with fewer goals.

Defensive strengthFortaleza EC concedes 0.6 goals/game
Strong positive
Scoring inconsistencySão Bernardo scores 1.6 but concedes 1.8
Positive
Recent low-scoring trendFortaleza EC 20% over 2.5 rate
Strong positive
Market value6.1% positive edge at 1.67 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a tactically sound pick given Fortaleza EC's disciplined defense and São Bernardo's uneven offensive output. The recent form data and head-to-head history point to a tight, low-scoring match where both teams prioritize defensive organization over open attacking play.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and goal-scoring inconsistency

“Fortaleza EC's defensive resilience combined with São Bernardo's inconsistent finishing suggests this match will struggle to produce many goals, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Fortaleza EC concedes only 0.6 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive discipline.

São Bernardo averages 1.6 goals scored but concedes 1.8, showing defensive vulnerabilities.

São Bernardo's BTTS rate is high at 80%, but Fortaleza EC's defensive form may limit goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last meeting between these teams, only 1 goal was scored, illustrating a historically low-scoring fixture.
  • Recent trends over the last five matches for Fortaleza EC show a strong tendency towards Under 2.5 Goals, confirming the likelihood of a tight, low-tempo game.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fortaleza EC5.6
Avg corners for
São Bernardo8
Fortaleza EC9.6
Avg total corners
São Bernardo13
Fortaleza EC1.8
Avg yellow cards
São Bernardo2.2
Fortaleza EC10.6
Avg shots
São Bernardo15.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
São Bernardo averages 15.8 shots and 8 corners per game, indicating attacking intent, but Fortaleza EC's defensive setup restricts clear chances. Both teams maintain moderate card counts, with São Bernardo slightly more aggressive. The balance of pressure and fouls suggests controlled play rather than open, high-tempo attacking exchanges.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fortaleza EC0.8
Avg goals scored
São Bernardo1.6
Fortaleza EC0.6
Avg goals conceded
São Bernardo1.8
Fortaleza EC40%
BTTS rate
São Bernardo80%
Fortaleza EC20%
Over 2.5 goals
São Bernardo60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Goal trends show Fortaleza EC averages only 0.8 goals scored and concedes 0.6, while São Bernardo scores 1.6 but concedes 1.8. Despite São Bernardo's higher BTTS rate of 80%, Fortaleza EC's defensive discipline limits goal opportunities, suggesting a low-scoring match with limited BTTS likelihood.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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São Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Fortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
São Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 24%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.67 with a of 66%, indicating positive value. The reflect a cautious game expectation, and the 6.1% supports backing this market confidently without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fortaleza EC

DDWLW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
15 Aug 2026A Juventude0-0
09 Aug 2026A Cuiaba1-1
29 Jul 2026H Botafogo SP1-0
22 Jul 2026A Vila Nova1-2
18 Jul 2026H Novorizontino1-0

São Bernardo

LWLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
14 Aug 2026H Botafogo SP0-1
07 Aug 2026A Operario-PR3-1
26 Jul 2026H Ceara3-4
23 Jul 2026A Athletic Club1-2
17 Jul 2026H Avai1-1
Best odds for this sectionSão Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 85%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Fortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
São Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 24%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Fortaleza EC's recent form shows only 20% of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting a defensive mindset. São Bernardo's 60% over 2.5 rate is higher but inconsistent, with defensive lapses balancing attacking bursts. The form data points to a match leaning towards fewer goals and controlled tempo.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Fortaleza EC wins
0Draws
0São Bernardo wins
12 Apr 2026São Bernardo v Fortaleza EC0-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Fortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
São Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 24%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The single head-to-head match between Fortaleza EC and São Bernardo featured just 1 goal, underscoring a pattern of tight contests. This limited sample supports the expectation of a low-scoring game, with defensive tactics prevailing over attacking risk.
Season team stats

Serie B

Fortaleza EC22
Played
São Bernardo22
Fortaleza EC1.1
Avg goals for
São Bernardo1.4
Fortaleza EC0.9
Avg goals against
São Bernardo1.1
Fortaleza EC10
Clean sheets
São Bernardo5
Best odds for this sectionSão Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Fortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
São Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 24%
6
Check odds @ 6
Season-long stats reveal Fortaleza EC's strong defensive record with 0.6 goals conceded per game and low over 2.5 goals frequency. São Bernardo's higher goals conceded and scored suggest volatility but no consistent high-scoring pattern, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals outlook.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Fortaleza EC362210664
12São Bernardo30228686
Fortaleza EC sits 4th with 36 points, showing stability and defensive organization, while São Bernardo ranks 12th with 30 points, indicating inconsistency. The standings reflect Fortaleza EC's stronger form and tactical control, supporting a cautious, low-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Fortaleza EC Over 2.5
60%São Bernardo Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
In the last meeting between these teams, only 1 goal was scored, illustrating a historically low-scoring fixture. Recent trends over the last five matches for Fortaleza EC show a strong tendency towards Under 2.5 Goals, confirming the likelihood of a tight, low-tempo game.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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