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Modena crestModena
v
Avellino crestAvellino

Serie B | Sun 06 Sep, 14:00

Modena v Avellino Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Modena and Avellino meet in a Serie B clash where Modena currently leads the table with six points, while Avellino sits eighth with three points. Both teams have demonstrated attacking intent early in the season, with Modena scoring 2.5 goals per game and Avellino 2.0, while conceding few goals. This fixture promises an open contest as both sides seek to build momentum, with Modena's strong home form and Avellino's willingness to press forward setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Modena and Avellino both have 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
  • Modena averages 11.5 shots per game, Avellino 10.5, indicating attacking pressure.
  • Both teams have a 50% BTTS rate, suggesting goals from both sides are possible.
  • Modena leads Serie B with 6 points; Avellino has 3 points from recent matches.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 1.5 from two meetings, but recent form suggests more goals now.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 78% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' attacking efficiency and defensive vulnerabilities. Modena's perfect Over 2.5 record and Avellino's matching rate underline a trend for open games. High shot volumes and solid goal averages support the likelihood of multiple goals. The price offers positive value with a 29.9% edge, making this an attractive bet based on current form and attacking profiles. No data limitations affect in this assessment.

Model Chance78%
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% both teams
Strong positive
Average Shots per GameModena 11.5, Avellino 10.5
Positive
Implied Chance from Odds48.1%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and dynamic match as Modena's attacking prowess meets Avellino's offensive intent. The strong Over 2.5 Goals trend from both teams' recent matches and high shot volumes suggest multiple goals are likely. Tactical openness and scoring form make Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice for this Serie B encounter.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“Modena's aggressive attack combined with Avellino's willingness to commit players forward creates fertile ground for goals. Both sides have shown they can score and concede, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Modena and Avellino both have 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.

Modena averages 11.5 shots per game, Avellino 10.5, indicating attacking pressure.

Both teams have a 50% BTTS rate, suggesting goals from both sides are possible.

Modena leads Serie B with 6 points; Avellino has 3 points from recent matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 1.5, a modest figure.
  • However, recent season trends for both teams show a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a shift towards more open, high-scoring games.
  • This suggests that while historical encounters were tighter, current form and attacking tempo favor a match with multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Modena2.5
Avg goals scored
Avellino2
Modena0.5
Avg goals conceded
Avellino1
Modena50%
BTTS rate
Avellino50%
Modena100%
Over 2.5 goals
Avellino100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both Modena and Avellino have maintained a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, with a 50% BTTS rate each. This indicates that while both teams score regularly, defensive lapses or open play could lead to multiple goals. The combination of solid goal averages and balanced BTTS rates points to a match where goals from either side are plausible, reinforcing the Over 2.5 selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Modena to WinBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Modena Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Avellino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Avellino to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.08 with a of 78%, indicating strong value. The implied probability of 48.1% is well below the model's estimate, suggesting bettors can capitalize on the discrepancy. This pricing reflects in an open game with multiple goals, supported by both teams' attacking stats and recent scoring trends.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Modena3
Avg corners for
Avellino3
Modena11
Avg total corners
Avellino7.5
Modena1.5
Avg yellow cards
Avellino3
Modena11.5
Avg shots
Avellino10.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 60% · edge +10 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams average three corners per game, reflecting moderate attacking pressure and set-piece opportunities. Modena averages 1.5 yellow cards per match, while Avellino sees a higher disciplinary count at three yellows, suggesting a physical contest that may disrupt rhythm. Shot volumes are high, with Modena at 11.5 and Avellino at 10.5 shots per game, supporting sustained offensive efforts and chances for goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Modena

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
28 Aug 2026A Cremonese3-0
22 Aug 2026A Benevento2-1

Avellino

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
29 Aug 2026H Vicenza Virtus3-0
22 Aug 2026H Arezzo1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 85% · edge +1.3 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
Modena to WinBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Modena Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Avellino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Avellino to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form data shows Modena scoring 2.5 goals per game and conceding only 0.5, while Avellino scores 2.0 and concedes 1.0. Both teams have maintained a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating consistent offensive output. This form suggests a continuation of high-scoring matches, with Modena's defensive solidity potentially challenged by Avellino's attacking intent.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Modena wins
1Draws
1Avellino wins
08 May 2026Avellino v Modena1-0
31 Aug 2025Modena v Avellino1-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Modena to WinBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Avellino to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The two previous meetings between Modena and Avellino have averaged 1.5 goals per game, indicating relatively low-scoring contests historically. However, this limited sample is outweighed by current season trends where both teams show strong attacking output and high Over 2.5 Goals rates, suggesting the historical data is less relevant for this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Modena2
Played
Avellino2
Modena2.5
Avg goals for
Avellino2
Modena0.5
Avg goals against
Avellino1
Modena1
Clean sheets
Avellino1
Best odds for this sectionModena to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 57% · edge +4.8 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Modena Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Avellino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Avellino to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Season-long statistics reveal Modena as the league's top-ranked team with strong attacking numbers, averaging 2.5 goals per game and a tight defense. Avellino, ranked eighth, also shows offensive capability with 2 goals per game but concedes more. These profiles suggest a match where Modena's attack will be tested, and Avellino's scoring ability could exploit defensive gaps, supporting an Over 2.5 Goals outcome.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Modena622004
9Avellino321012
Modena leads Serie B with 6 points, reflecting strong early-season form and . Avellino's 8th place with 3 points shows competitive but less consistent results. While standings provide background, the attacking styles and goal trends of both teams offer more decisive insight into this fixture's likely goal-rich nature.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Modena Over 2.5
100%Avellino Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
Over the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 1.5, a modest figure. However, recent season trends for both teams show a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a shift towards more open, high-scoring games. This suggests that while historical encounters were tighter, current form and attacking tempo favor a match with multiple goals.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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