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Carrarese crestCarrarese
v
Empoli crestEmpoli

Serie B | Sat 05 Sep, 18:30

Carrarese v Empoli Stats

Data last updated: Sun 06 Sep 2026, 05:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Carrarese and Empoli meet in a Serie B clash where both sides have shown competitive intensity early in the season. Carrarese, positioned 14th with just one point, will look to disrupt the 11th-placed Empoli, who have collected three points. Both teams have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. The match promises physical battles in midfield and wide areas, with Carrarese's aggressive pressing and Empoli's tactical fouling likely to increase card incidents. The stakes are high for both teams aiming to climb the table, setting the stage for a combative encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Carrarese averages 2 yellow cards per game, Empoli 3.5, indicating a physical match.
  • Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting open play.
  • Zedadka has a high foul rate (5.49/90) and card risk, increasing card likelihood.
  • Recent form shows Carrarese and Empoli concede 1.5 goals per game, reflecting defensive pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies strong value in Over 4.5 Cards with a 66.8% chance, well above the implied 45.5% from . Both teams' aggressive defensive styles and high foul rates contribute to frequent bookings. Empoli's midfielders, especially K. Zedadka, have elevated card risks, while Carrarese's physical approach adds to the count. The match context of two mid-table teams fighting for points supports a competitive, card-heavy game. No price warnings apply, making this a solid value selection with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance66.8%
Strong positive
Implied Chance45.5%
Positive
Value Edge21.3%
Strong positive
Empoli Card RiskHigh (K. Zedadka 1.1 yellows/90)
Strong positive
Carrarese Physicality2 yellows per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a fiercely contested match with both teams pressing hard and committing tactical fouls. The combination of Empoli’s higher card risk players and Carrarese’s physical style suggests a game prone to multiple bookings. This pick leverages the tactical and disciplinary patterns seen so far this season.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“The high foul rates and card risks from key midfielders on both sides set the stage for a match with numerous bookings. Empoli’s aggressive midfield presence combined with Carrarese’s pressing style makes Over 4.5 Cards a compelling angle.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Carrarese averages 2 yellow cards per game, Empoli 3.5, indicating a physical match.

Zedadka has a high foul rate (5.49/90) and card risk, increasing card likelihood.

Recent form shows Carrarese and Empoli concede 1.5 goals per game, reflecting defensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals were 3.5, indicating open play.
  • Over the last five matches, both teams have a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting a tempo that fosters fouls and cards through transitions and attacking duels.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Carrarese5.5
Avg corners for
Empoli4
Carrarese12
Avg total corners
Empoli8
Carrarese2
Avg yellow cards
Empoli3.5
Carrarese14
Avg shots
Empoli8
Market aligned with main pickOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Carrarese averages 5.5 corners and 14 shots per game, while Empoli averages 4 corners and 8 shots. The sustained pressure and territorial battles increase fouls and card chances, especially with Empoli’s midfielders committing frequent fouls to disrupt play.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Carrarese1
Avg goals scored
Empoli1
Carrarese1.5
Avg goals conceded
Empoli1.5
Carrarese100%
BTTS rate
Empoli50%
Carrarese50%
Over 2.5 goals
Empoli50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both Carrarese and Empoli have a 50% rate for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, and Carrarese has a 100% BTTS rate, indicating open games with attacking intent. This attacking openness often leads to increased fouls and disciplinary actions as defenses are tested.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Empoli to WinBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Empoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Carrarese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The Over 4.5 Cards market offers strong value as the model’s 66.8% probability significantly exceeds the implied 45.5% chance from current . This discrepancy highlights a price-sensitive opportunity given the teams’ aggressive defensive profiles and card-prone players.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Carrarese

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
29 Aug 2026A Ascoli1-1
22 Aug 2026H Mantova1-2

Empoli

LW
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
30 Aug 2026A Mantova1-3
22 Aug 2026H Cremonese1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 77% vs implied 65% · edge +11.4 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Empoli to WinBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Empoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Carrarese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Carrarese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Recent form shows Carrarese and Empoli conceding 1.5 goals per game, reflecting defensive pressure and physical contests. Carrarese’s average of 2 yellows and Empoli’s 3.5 yellows per game underline a pattern of frequent bookings, supporting the Over 4.5 Cards pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Carrarese wins
1Draws
0Empoli wins
23 Jan 2026Carrarese v Empoli3-0
28 Sep 2025Empoli v Carrarese2-2
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Empoli to WinBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Carrarese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
The limited head-to-head sample of two matches shows an average of 3.5 goals, reflecting open and competitive games. While the sample is small, it suggests a fixture prone to intensity and fouls, indirectly supporting a higher card count.
Season team stats

Serie B

Carrarese3
Played
Empoli3
Carrarese0.7
Avg goals for
Empoli1
Carrarese1.3
Avg goals against
Empoli1
Carrarese0
Clean sheets
Empoli2
Best odds for this sectionEmpoli to WinBetfred guide price · Model 49% vs implied 35% · edge +14.9 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Load more odds for this section
Empoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Carrarese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Carrarese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Season-long data confirms both teams’ aggressive defensive styles, with Empoli’s higher yellow card average and Carrarese’s physical approach contributing to a high card count. These trends align with the model’s strong in Over 4.5 Cards.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Empoli632010
15Carrarese13012-2
While Carrarese sits 14th and Empoli 11th, the mid-table positions increase the stakes for points, encouraging physicality and tactical fouling to gain advantage. This competitive pressure supports a higher card count scenario.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Carrarese Over 2.5
50%Empoli Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals were 3.5, indicating open play. Over the last five matches, both teams have a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting a tempo that fosters fouls and cards through transitions and attacking duels.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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