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Cesena crestCesena
v
Mantova crestMantova

Serie B | Sun 06 Sep, 14:00

Cesena v Mantova Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cesena and Mantova meet in a Serie B clash where attacking intent is clear from both sides. Mantova currently sits second in the standings with six points, showing strong offensive output, while Cesena holds fourth with four points and a solid home presence. Both teams have demonstrated a tendency for open play and goal-scoring opportunities in recent matches, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter. Tactical setups suggest Mantova's forward line will test Cesena's defense, while Cesena's willingness to push forward could leave spaces at the back, creating chances for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Mantova has scored 2.5 goals per game recently, Cesena 1.5 goals per game
  • Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating goals at both ends
  • Mantova averages 12 shots and 4 shots on target per game, showing offensive pressure
  • H2H average goals stand at 3.3 over the last 10 meetings, supporting a high-scoring trend

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 74.3% chance versus a 50% implied market chance, reflecting a 24.3% . Both teams have shown consistent goal-scoring and conceding patterns, with Mantova's aggressive shot volume and Cesena's openness contributing to an expectation of multiple goals. The high BTTS rates and historical head-to-head average of 3.3 goals per match reinforce the likelihood of a lively, goal-rich game. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Chance74.3%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance50%
Strong positive
Value Edge24.3%
Strong positive
Recent BTTS Rates100% both teams
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals3.3 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game given both teams' recent offensive form and high shot volumes. Mantova's strong forward players and Cesena's willingness to engage in open play suggest multiple goal-scoring chances, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and match tempo

“This fixture features two sides with attacking firepower and defensive vulnerabilities, setting the stage for a goal-laden match. The statistical trends and player roles underline a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Mantova has scored 2.5 goals per game recently, Cesena 1.5 goals per game

Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating goals at both ends

Mantova averages 12 shots and 4 shots on target per game, showing offensive pressure

H2H average goals stand at 3.3 over the last 10 meetings, supporting a high-scoring trend

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 3.3, highlighting a consistent trend of goal-rich encounters.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, with both teams historically involved in open, attacking matches that favor Over 2.5 Goals outcomes.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Cesena1
Avg corners for
Mantova3
Cesena10
Avg total corners
Mantova7
Cesena2.5
Avg yellow cards
Mantova1.5
Cesena7
Avg shots
Mantova14
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 55% · edge +2.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Mantova averages 12 shots and 4 shots on target per game, while Cesena averages 7 shots and 3 on target, showing offensive pressure from both sides. The corner counts are moderate, but the shot volume and fouling rates suggest an open game with frequent attacking transitions and set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cesena1.5
Avg goals scored
Mantova2.5
Cesena1
Avg goals conceded
Mantova1
Cesena100%
BTTS rate
Mantova100%
Cesena50%
Over 2.5 goals
Mantova100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have scored and conceded regularly, with a 100% BTTS rate recently, indicating goals at both ends. Mantova's 2.5 goals per game and Cesena's 1.5, combined with an average of 3.3 goals in their last 10 meetings, point to a match with multiple scoring opportunities and a high chance of Over 2.5 Goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Mantova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Mantova to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Cesena Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively with around 2.0, reflecting a 50% implied chance. The model's 74.3% probability indicates clear value, suggesting the market underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals. This pricing offers a positive expected return, making the bet a compelling option without requiring movement.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cesena

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
29 Aug 2026A Virtus Entella2-1
23 Aug 2026H Sampdoria1-1

Mantova

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
30 Aug 2026H Empoli3-1
22 Aug 2026A Carrarese2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 80% vs implied 65% · edge +15 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Mantova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Mantova to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Cesena Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Cesena to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Recent form shows Mantova scoring 2.5 goals per game with a 100% BTTS rate, while Cesena scores 1.5 goals and also has a 100% BTTS rate. Both teams' offensive output and defensive concessions suggest a continuation of high-scoring matches, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Cesena wins
1Draws
3Mantova wins
17 Mar 2026Mantova v Cesena3-0
13 Dec 2025Cesena v Mantova3-2
02 Aug 2025Mantova v Cesena1-2
01 May 2025Mantova v Cesena3-0
29 Sep 2024Cesena v Mantova4-2
05 May 2024Mantova v Cesena1-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Mantova to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Cesena to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
The head-to-head record over 10 matches shows an average of 3.3 goals per game, indicating a history of open contests with multiple goals. This trend supports the expectation of Over 2.5 Goals, though tactical changes could influence the exact outcome in this fixture.
Season team stats

Serie B

Cesena2
Played
Mantova2
Cesena1.5
Avg goals for
Mantova2.5
Cesena1
Avg goals against
Mantova1
Cesena0
Clean sheets
Mantova0
Best odds for this sectionMantova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 56% · edge +10.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Mantova to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Cesena Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Cesena to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Season-long stats reveal Mantova's potent attack and relatively open defense, with Cesena also showing a balance of scoring and conceding goals. These patterns align with a fixture prone to multiple goals, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals market as a fitting reflection of their season profiles.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Mantova622003
7Cesena421101
Mantova sits second and Cesena fourth in Serie B, both with positive points tallies and offensive records. Their positions reflect competitive teams with attacking ambitions, indicating a match where both sides seek to score and secure points, which supports a higher goal count.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Cesena Over 2.5
100%Mantova Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 3.3, highlighting a consistent trend of goal-rich encounters. This sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, with both teams historically involved in open, attacking matches that favor Over 2.5 Goals outcomes.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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