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Mantova crestMantova
v
Pisa crestPisa

Serie B | Sun 20 Sep, 16:15

Mantova v Pisa Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mantova hosts Pisa in a Serie B clash where Mantova currently leads the standings with 10 points, showcasing strong early-season form. Pisa, sitting ninth with 6 points, have struggled to maintain consistent attacking output and defensive solidity. Mantova's tactical setup emphasizes disciplined defense and efficient counter-attacks, leveraging key players like J. Ruocco to create scoring opportunities. Pisa's higher shot volume has not translated into goals, highlighting finishing issues. The match carries importance for Mantova to consolidate their top position, while Pisa aims to close the gap and regain momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Mantova to Win

  • Mantova leads Serie B with 10 points and solid defensive record
  • Pisa ranks 9th with 6 points, showing less consistency
  • Mantova averages 11.5 shots per game with 5.5 on target
  • Pisa averages more shots (16.75) but lower goal conversion
  • Head-to-head matches have been high scoring but recent form favors Mantova

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Mantova to win with a 67.4% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive stability. Mantova's efficient attack, led by J. Mboyo's strong goal threat and F. Ruocco's finishing, contrasts with Pisa's less effective offense despite higher shot volume. The price offers positive value given the implied chance of 37%, supported by Mantova's home advantage and tactical discipline. No data limitations affect , making this a solid selection based on both statistics and football context.

Model Win Probability67.4%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance37%
Strong positive
Value Edge30.4%
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormMantova concedes 0.75 goals per game
Positive
Attacking EfficiencyJ. Mboyo averages 1.91 goals per 90 minutes
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Mantova's tactical discipline and home form make them the likely winners in this Serie B fixture. Their efficient attack and solid defense contrast with Pisa's inconsistent performances, providing a strong foundation for a Mantova victory. The data supports this with Mantova's superior points tally and goal threat from key players.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and attacking efficiency

“Mantova's blend of defensive solidity and clinical finishing, especially from J. Ruocco, underpins their strong position in Serie B. Pisa's higher shot numbers haven't yielded results, highlighting Mantova's edge in key areas.”

Key Data Signals

Mantova to Win evidence

Mantova leads Serie B with 10 points and solid defensive record

Pisa ranks 9th with 6 points, showing less consistency

Mantova averages 11.5 shots per game with 5.5 on target

Pisa averages more shots (16.75) but lower goal conversion

What To Watch In The Data

Mantova to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, an average of 4.5 goals per game was recorded, indicating potential for an open game.
  • However, recent form and defensive solidity from Mantova suggest a more controlled tempo.
  • Over 2.5 goals have featured in 50% of Mantova's recent matches and 75% of Pisa's, pointing to a moderate likelihood of goals but with Mantova's defense possibly limiting Pisa's scoring chances.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Mantova3.75
Avg corners for
Pisa5.67
Mantova9.5
Avg total corners
Pisa11
Mantova1.25
Avg yellow cards
Pisa1.67
Mantova11.5
Avg shots
Pisa18.33
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Pisa averages more corners (5) and shots (16.75) than Mantova, reflecting their attacking intent. However, Mantova's defensive discipline limits Pisa's shot quality. Card counts are moderate, with Pisa showing slightly higher yellow card averages, possibly indicating a more aggressive approach that could disrupt their rhythm. Mantova's balanced pressure and set-piece delivery contribute to their control of the match tempo.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mantova2
Avg goals scored
Pisa1.5
Mantova0.75
Avg goals conceded
Pisa1.5
Mantova75%
BTTS rate
Pisa50%
Mantova50%
Over 2.5 goals
Pisa75%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 29%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams have shown mixed goal-scoring trends, with Mantova averaging 2 goals per game and Pisa 1.5. Mantova's 75% BTTS rate suggests openness, but Pisa's defensive vulnerabilities and lower BTTS rate point to a probable Mantova clean sheet or limited Pisa scoring. Over 2.5 goals occur in 50% of Mantova's games and 75% for Pisa, indicating potential for goals but with some defensive caution.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMantova to WinBetUK guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Mantova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
The current for Mantova to win reflect a significant undervaluation by the market, with an implied chance of 37% versus the model's 67.4%. This discrepancy indicates strong value in backing Mantova, given their form and tactical advantages. would need to drift shorter to reduce this .
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mantova

WDWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
13 Sep 2026H Sampdoria2-0
06 Sep 2026A Cesena1-1
30 Aug 2026H Empoli3-1
22 Aug 2026A Carrarese2-1

Pisa

LWWL
Last 52W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 2L
11 Sep 2026H Virtus Entella1-4
06 Sep 2026A Juve Stabia3-0
30 Aug 2026H Catanzaro2-1
23 Aug 2026H Padova0-1
Market aligned with main pickMantova to WinBetUK guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Mantova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Mantova's recent form is strong, accumulating 10 points with a solid defensive record of 0.75 goals conceded per game. Pisa's form is less convincing, with 6 points and a higher goals-against average of 1.5. Mantova's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline underpins their winning momentum, contrasting with Pisa's inconsistency and defensive lapses.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Mantova wins
0Draws
2Pisa wins
16 Mar 2025Pisa v Mantova3-1
07 Dec 2024Mantova v Pisa2-3
Market aligned with main pickMantova to WinBetUK guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The limited head-to-head sample of two matches shows high-scoring encounters, averaging 4.5 goals per game. While this suggests attacking openness, the current form and tactical setups imply Mantova may exert more control, reducing the likelihood of a repeat high-scoring game. Thus, the H2H record offers background but less predictive weight for this fixture.
Season team stats

Serie B

Mantova4
Played
Pisa4
Mantova2
Avg goals for
Pisa1.5
Mantova0.8
Avg goals against
Pisa1.5
Mantova1
Clean sheets
Pisa1
Market aligned with main pickMantova to WinBetUK guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Mantova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Mantova leads Serie B with a balanced attack scoring 2 goals per game and a sturdy defense conceding less than one goal per match. Pisa's season stats show a higher goals conceded rate and less efficient attack despite more shots, indicating issues in finishing and defensive organization. These season-long trends favor Mantova's ability to control the game and secure victory.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Mantova1043105
10Pisa642020
Mantova sits atop the Serie B table, reflecting consistent performances and effective tactical execution. Pisa's mid-table position at ninth highlights their struggle to maintain form and challenge for top spots. The standings underscore Mantova's motivation to consolidate their lead and Pisa's need to respond, adding competitive tension but favoring the home side.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Mantova Over 2.5
75%Pisa Over 2.5
4.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, an average of 4.5 goals per game was recorded, indicating potential for an open game. However, recent form and defensive solidity from Mantova suggest a more controlled tempo. Over 2.5 goals have featured in 50% of Mantova's recent matches and 75% of Pisa's, pointing to a moderate likelihood of goals but with Mantova's defense possibly limiting Pisa's scoring chances.

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