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Ascoli crestAscoli
v
Avellino crestAvellino

Serie B | Sat 19 Sep, 18:30

Ascoli v Avellino Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ascoli and Avellino meet in a Serie B clash where both sides have shown a balanced mix of attacking intent and defensive resilience early in the season. Both teams have accumulated 7 points, with Avellino slightly more prolific in attack but conceding at a similar rate to Ascoli. The fixture promises a tactical battle with midfield control and wing play likely to be key, setting the stage for a contest where set-piece opportunities and territorial pressure could be decisive factors.

BT4Y best bet

Over 8.5 Corners

  • Ascoli averages 7.25 corners per game, significantly higher than Avellino's 3.0.
  • Both teams maintain moderate attacking output but generate enough wide play to create corner chances.
  • Recent matches show a combined corner count comfortably exceeding 8.5 in most fixtures involving these teams.
  • The model estimates a 75% chance for over 8.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support for this market.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 8.5 Corners as a value bet with a 75% chance of occurrence, well above the implied market chance of 59.9%. Ascoli's high corner average combined with Avellino's ability to generate shots and pressure from wide areas supports this. Both teams' tactical approaches involve wing play and set-piece creation, increasing corner opportunities. The level of 75% reflects consistent data across recent matches and season trends, making this a statistically robust selection.

Ascoli average corners7.25 per game
Strong positive
Avellino average corners3.0 per game
Positive
Model chance vs market implied75% vs 59.9%
Strong positive
Confidence level75%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This corner market is supported by Ascoli's strong territorial play and high corner creation rate, combined with Avellino's willingness to attack from wide areas. The data shows a consistent pattern of matches exceeding 8.5 corners, making this a tactically and statistically sound choice for bettors.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corner market tactical and data insight

“Ascoli's control in wide areas and Avellino's active wing play create a fertile ground for corners, making Over 8.5 a compelling market with solid backing from recent data and tactical setups.”

Key Data Signals

Over 8.5 Corners evidence

Ascoli averages 7.25 corners per game, significantly higher than Avellino's 3.0.

Both teams maintain moderate attacking output but generate enough wide play to create corner chances.

Recent matches show a combined corner count comfortably exceeding 8.5 in most fixtures involving these teams.

The model estimates a 75% chance for over 8.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support for this market.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 8.5 Corners notes

  • In the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.25, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily open play.
  • Over the last five matches involving these teams, corner counts have frequently exceeded 8.5, driven by tempo and wing attacks rather than high goal volume.
  • This trend supports the corner market as a more reliable indicator of match dynamics than goal totals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ascoli1
Avg goals scored
Avellino1.5
Ascoli0.75
Avg goals conceded
Avellino0.75
Ascoli50%
BTTS rate
Avellino50%
Ascoli25%
Over 2.5 goals
Avellino50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 57% · edge +9.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have modest goal-scoring rates but balanced defensive records, with Ascoli scoring 1.0 and Avellino 1.5 goals per game. Both teams have a 50% BTTS rate, indicating moderate attacking openness but not excessive goal volume. This suggests a match where tactical caution may limit goals but not corner opportunities.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Avellino to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Ascoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
The Over 8.5 Corners market is priced attractively with reflecting a 59.9% implied chance, while the model estimates a 75% probability. This positive of 15.1% suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high corner count, making this a favorable bet without price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Ascoli7.25
Avg corners for
Avellino3
Ascoli12.5
Avg total corners
Avellino9
Ascoli2.75
Avg yellow cards
Avellino2.5
Ascoli15.5
Avg shots
Avellino10.5
Market aligned with main pickOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Ascoli averages 15.5 shots and 7.25 corners per game, showing strong attacking pressure and wing play. Avellino's 10.5 shots and 3 corners per game reflect a more conservative approach but still contribute to set-piece chances. Both teams average around 2.5 yellow cards combined, indicating moderate fouling and physicality that can disrupt rhythm and lead to more corners.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ascoli

LWDW
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
12 Sep 2026A Padova0-1
05 Sep 2026H Benevento1-0
29 Aug 2026H Carrarese1-1
23 Aug 2026A Hellas Verona2-1

Avellino

DWWL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
13 Sep 2026H Palermo1-1
06 Sep 2026A Modena1-0
29 Aug 2026H Vicenza Virtus3-0
22 Aug 2026H Arezzo1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +13.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Avellino to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Ascoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBetUK guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Recent form shows both teams accumulating 7 points with low goals conceded, but Ascoli's corner average remains high at 7.25 per game. Avellino's corner average is lower but consistent. Matches involving these teams have frequently surpassed 8.5 corners, reflecting sustained territorial pressure and attacking intent in recent fixtures.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Ascoli wins
2Draws
0Avellino wins
05 May 2018Ascoli v Avellino1-1
16 Dec 2017Avellino v Ascoli1-1
25 Apr 2017Ascoli v Avellino2-0
03 Dec 2016Avellino v Ascoli1-2
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 57% · edge +9.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Avellino to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBetUK guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The four recent meetings between Ascoli and Avellino have averaged 2.25 goals per game, reflecting balanced encounters without extreme control. While goal trends are moderate, the matches have shown consistent territorial battles that typically generate numerous corners. The head-to-head data moderately supports the likelihood of a high corner count, aligning with the model's prediction.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Ascoli4
Played
Avellino4
Ascoli1
Avg goals for
Avellino1.5
Ascoli0.8
Avg goals against
Avellino0.8
Ascoli1
Clean sheets
Avellino2
Best odds for this sectionAvellino to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Ascoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Season-long data confirms Ascoli's strong corner creation at 7.25 per game, supported by their attacking style and wing utilization. Avellino's 3 corners per game add to the total, with both teams showing balanced defensive stats that do not suppress corner opportunities. This season profile supports the Over 8.5 Corners market as a realistic outcome.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Avellino742113
8Ascoli742111
Both teams sit in the top 10 of Serie B with 7 points each, indicating competitive form but no extreme control. The standings suggest a balanced contest where neither side is likely to concede excessive territory, maintaining steady corner generation rather than a defensive stalemate or open goal-fest.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Ascoli Over 2.5
50%Avellino Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
In the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.25, indicating moderate scoring but not necessarily open play. Over the last five matches involving these teams, corner counts have frequently exceeded 8.5, driven by tempo and wing attacks rather than high goal volume. This trend supports the corner market as a more reliable indicator of match dynamics than goal totals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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