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Modena crestModena
v
Empoli crestEmpoli

Serie B | Sun 20 Sep, 18:30

Modena v Empoli Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 08:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Modena and Empoli meet in a Serie B clash where both sides have shown cautious attacking output this season. Modena ranks 7th with a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.75 goals per game, while Empoli sits 10th, scoring less than one goal per match on average. Both teams have low over 2.5 goals rates, especially Empoli at 25%, indicating a tactical approach focused on defensive solidity and controlled tempo. This fixture promises a measured contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities, reflecting the teams' recent form and strategic priorities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Modena concedes only 0.75 goals per game, showing defensive strength
  • Empoli averages 0.75 goals scored and 1 conceded, indicating tight matches
  • Modena's over 2.5 goals rate is 50%, Empoli's is 25%, both relatively low
  • Head-to-head matches average 1.5 goals, supporting a low-scoring game
  • Modena averages 21 shots per game but with moderate finishing, Empoli less active offensively

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting both teams' defensive solidity and modest attacking output. Modena's strong defensive numbers and Empoli's low scoring rate suggest limited goal-scoring opportunities. The head-to-head average of 1.5 goals and low BTTS rates further support a controlled, low-scoring match. The price offers positive value with a 13.4% edge, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection given the tactical and statistical context.

Model Probability66% chance for Under 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance52.6%, price offers value
Positive
Defensive RecordsModena concedes 0.75 goals per game
Strong positive
Attacking OutputEmpoli scores 0.75 goals per game
Positive
Head-to-Head GoalsAverage 1.5 goals in last 2 matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical choice given Modena's disciplined defense and Empoli's limited attacking threat. The teams' recent matches and head-to-head encounters suggest a tactical battle with few clear-cut chances, making a low-scoring outcome the most probable scenario.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and tactical caution

“Modena's defensive organization combined with Empoli's restrained offensive approach sets the stage for a match unlikely to exceed two goals. The statistical patterns and tactical tendencies align well with a low-scoring contest.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Modena concedes only 0.75 goals per game, showing defensive strength

Empoli averages 0.75 goals scored and 1 conceded, indicating tight matches

Head-to-head matches average 1.5 goals, supporting a low-scoring game

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last two head-to-head matches averaged 1.5 goals, indicating a trend toward low-scoring encounters.
  • Over the recent sample, both teams have maintained a cautious tempo with limited attacking breakthroughs, supporting the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this match.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Modena6.5
Avg corners for
Empoli3.67
Modena12.25
Avg total corners
Empoli7.67
Modena1.75
Avg yellow cards
Empoli2.67
Modena21
Avg shots
Empoli8.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 50% · edge +12.1 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 60%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Modena averages 6.5 corners and 21 shots per game, showing moderate attacking pressure, while Empoli's 4.5 corners and 10.5 shots reflect a more conservative approach. Card counts suggest disciplined play, with Empoli receiving slightly more yellows, hinting at tactical fouling rather than reckless aggression. The data points to a match with measured pressure and limited open-play chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Modena1.5
Avg goals scored
Empoli0.75
Modena0.75
Avg goals conceded
Empoli1
Modena50%
BTTS rate
Empoli25%
Modena50%
Over 2.5 goals
Empoli25%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.4 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Both teams have low BTTS rates, with Modena at 50% and Empoli at 25%, indicating frequent clean sheets and controlled goal concessions. The average goals per match and head-to-head data support a scenario where goals are limited and both sides prioritize defensive stability over open attacking play.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.4 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Empoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Empoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Modena to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Modena Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 1.9, reflecting a 52.6% implied chance against the model's 66% probability. This positive indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of a low-scoring game, making the bet a strong candidate without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Modena

DLWW
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
12 Sep 2026A Sudtirol1-1
06 Sep 2026H Avellino0-1
28 Aug 2026A Cremonese3-0
22 Aug 2026A Benevento2-1

Empoli

LWLW
Last 52W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 2L
11 Sep 2026H Arezzo0-1
05 Sep 2026A Carrarese1-0
30 Aug 2026A Mantova1-3
22 Aug 2026H Cremonese1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 46% · edge +10.9 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Empoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 81%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Empoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Modena to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Modena Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Recent form shows Modena with 7 points and 1.5 goals scored per game, conceding 0.75, while Empoli has 6 points, scoring 0.75 and conceding 1 per match. Both teams' over 2.5 goals rates are low, especially Empoli's 25%, reinforcing a pattern of tight, low-scoring games. This recent data aligns well with the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Modena wins
1Draws
0Empoli wins
31 Jan 2026Empoli v Modena0-0
24 Oct 2025Modena v Empoli2-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Empoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Modena to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The two recent meetings between Modena and Empoli have produced an average of 1.5 goals per game, underscoring a pattern of low-scoring contests. This limited sample still provides meaningful context, suggesting tactical caution and defensive discipline dominate their encounters.
Season team stats

Serie B

Modena5
Played
Empoli5
Modena1.6
Avg goals for
Empoli0.8
Modena0.8
Avg goals against
Empoli1.2
Modena1
Clean sheets
Empoli2
Best odds for this sectionEmpoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 30% · edge +11.7 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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Empoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Modena to WinBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Modena Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Season-long stats reveal Modena's solid defense conceding less than one goal per game and a moderate attack averaging 1.5 goals. Empoli's lower scoring and slightly higher concession rate reflect a team focused on containment. These profiles underpin the expectation of a match with limited goal-scoring opportunities and controlled tempo.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Modena1053114
13Empoli65203-2
Modena's 7th place and Empoli's 10th position in Serie B show both teams are competitive but not dominant offensively. The standings reflect balanced squads with defensive emphasis, suggesting neither side is likely to take excessive risks that would increase goal volume in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Modena Over 2.5
25%Empoli Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
The last two head-to-head matches averaged 1.5 goals, indicating a trend toward low-scoring encounters. Over the recent sample, both teams have maintained a cautious tempo with limited attacking breakthroughs, supporting the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this match.

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