Football Stats Hub

Arezzo crestArezzo
v
Sudtirol crestSudtirol

Serie B | Sun 20 Sep, 14:00

Arezzo v Sudtirol Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Sudtirol visiting Arezzo in a contest where Sudtirol holds a slight edge in recent form and league standing. Sudtirol sits third with eight points, showing defensive solidity by conceding only 0.5 goals per game, while Arezzo, placed 11th, has struggled defensively, allowing 2.25 goals per match. Both teams average 1.25 goals scored per game, but Sudtirol's tighter defense and higher league position suggest they will look to control the match tactically and capitalize on Arezzo's defensive vulnerabilities. The fixture promises a tactical battle with Sudtirol favored to secure all three points.

BT4Y best bet

Sudtirol to Win

  • Sudtirol ranks 3rd in Serie B with 8 points, showing consistent form.
  • Arezzo concedes 2.25 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness.
  • Sudtirol has the league's second-best defense, conceding just 0.5 goals per match.
  • Both teams average 1.25 goals scored per game, but Sudtirol's defense stands out.
  • Sudtirol's recent form and league position support their chances to win away.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sudtirol to win with a 58.2% chance, reflecting their superior defensive record and higher league standing. Sudtirol's ability to limit opponents to just 0.5 goals per game contrasts sharply with Arezzo's 2.25 goals conceded average, highlighting a defensive mismatch. Despite similar attacking output, Sudtirol's defensive discipline and recent form provide a strong foundation for victory. The offer positive value given the implied chance is only 29.4%, making this a compelling selection with standard staking recommended.

Defensive strengthSudtirol concedes 0.5 goals per game vs Arezzo's 2.25
Strong positive
League positionSudtirol 3rd vs Arezzo 11th
Positive
Recent form pointsSudtirol 8 vs Arezzo 6
Positive
Goal scoringBoth teams average 1.25 goals per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sudtirol's disciplined defense and higher league standing make them the tactical favorite to win this match. Their ability to restrict opponents and maintain form away from home provides a solid data-backed reason to expect a Sudtirol victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Sudtirol's defensive and form advantage

“Sudtirol's defensive resilience and consistent form away from home give them a clear edge in this fixture, making their win a logical outcome based on current season trends.”

Key Data Signals

Sudtirol to Win evidence

Sudtirol ranks 3rd in Serie B with 8 points, showing consistent form.

Arezzo concedes 2.25 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness.

Sudtirol has the league's second-best defense, conceding just 0.5 goals per match.

Both teams average 1.25 goals scored per game, but Sudtirol's defense stands out.

What To Watch In The Data

Sudtirol to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2.5 per game, suggesting a moderately open game.
  • However, Sudtirol's defensive form this season points to a controlled tempo with fewer goals conceded, indicating that while goals are possible, the match may not be high-scoring overall.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Arezzo1.25
Avg goals scored
Sudtirol1.25
Arezzo2.25
Avg goals conceded
Sudtirol0.5
Arezzo50%
BTTS rate
Sudtirol50%
Arezzo75%
Over 2.5 goals
Sudtirol0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 25%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Both teams average 1.25 goals per game, but Sudtirol's strong defense limits opponents to just 0.5 goals per match, contrasting with Arezzo's 2.25 goals conceded. This suggests a lower likelihood of BTTS and a moderate chance for over 2.5 goals, as Arezzo's defensive frailty could allow Sudtirol to score multiple times while keeping Arezzo's scoring limited.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSudtirol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Sudtirol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
The current for Sudtirol to win reflect significant positive value compared to the model's 58.2% win probability. The market underestimates Sudtirol's defensive strength and recent form, offering a strong price opportunity. This price sensitivity suggests a favorable entry point for standard stakes without requiring movement.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Arezzo3.75
Avg corners for
Sudtirol2.5
Arezzo8
Avg total corners
Sudtirol9.75
Arezzo1.25
Avg yellow cards
Sudtirol2
Arezzo12.5
Avg shots
Sudtirol9.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 50% · edge -0.2 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Arezzo averages more shots (12.5) and corners (3.75) than Sudtirol, indicating they may press offensively. However, Sudtirol's disciplined defense and fewer yellow cards (2 per game) compared to Arezzo (1.25) suggest controlled aggression. Sudtirol's ability to limit shots on target to 2.75 per game supports their defensive solidity despite less corner advantage.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Arezzo

WLLW
Last 52W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 2L
11 Sep 2026A Empoli1-0
06 Sep 2026A Hellas Verona0-5
30 Aug 2026H Palermo2-3
22 Aug 2026A Avellino2-1

Sudtirol

DWDW
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
12 Sep 2026H Modena1-1
05 Sep 2026H Catanzaro2-0
30 Aug 2026A Benevento1-1
22 Aug 2026H Virtus Entella1-0
Market aligned with main pickSudtirol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Sudtirol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Sudtirol's recent form shows 8 points from matches played, reflecting consistent performance and defensive discipline. Arezzo's 6 points and higher goals conceded indicate vulnerability. Sudtirol's momentum and ability to maintain clean sheets underpin their favored status in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Arezzo wins
0Draws
2Sudtirol wins
28 Mar 2021Sudtirol v Arezzo1-0
06 Dec 2020Arezzo v Sudtirol0-4
Market aligned with main pickSudtirol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
The two previous meetings between these teams averaged 2.5 goals, showing a balanced scoring history. This limited sample suggests some openness but does not strongly favor either side, making current season form and defensive records more relevant for predicting the outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Arezzo4
Played
Sudtirol4
Arezzo1.3
Avg goals for
Sudtirol1.3
Arezzo2.3
Avg goals against
Sudtirol0.5
Arezzo1
Clean sheets
Sudtirol2
Market aligned with main pickSudtirol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Load more odds for this section
Sudtirol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Sudtirol's season stats reveal a robust defense conceding only 0.5 goals per game, supporting their chances to win by limiting opponent opportunities. Arezzo's higher goals conceded average (2.25) and moderate scoring rate highlight defensive weaknesses that Sudtirol can exploit.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Sudtirol842203
12Arezzo64202-4
Sudtirol's third-place standing with 8 points contrasts with Arezzo's 11th place and 6 points, reflecting better overall season performance. While standings alone don't decide the match, Sudtirol's higher rank indicates stronger consistency and quality over the campaign so far.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Arezzo Over 2.5
0%Sudtirol Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2.5 per game, suggesting a moderately open game. However, Sudtirol's defensive form this season points to a controlled tempo with fewer goals conceded, indicating that while goals are possible, the match may not be high-scoring overall.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Cremonese v Virtus EntellaSerie B · Sat 19 Sep 14:00Palermo v PadovaSerie B · Sat 19 Sep 14:00Carrarese v BeneventoSerie B · Sat 19 Sep 14:00Sampdoria v CatanzaroSerie B · Sat 19 Sep 16:15

Competition and hubs

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre