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Londrina crestLondrina
v
Ponte Preta crestPonte Preta

Serie B | Tue 15 Sep, 23:30

Londrina v Ponte Preta Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Londrina and Ponte Preta meet in a Serie B clash where both teams have struggled offensively, especially Ponte Preta who have yet to score in recent matches. Londrina's recent form shows a modest goal output but a solid defensive record, while Ponte Preta's defensive frailties have not translated into scoring opportunities. The tactical setup suggests a cautious approach from both sides, with limited attacking threat expected. This match carries significance for both teams as they seek to improve their league standing, but the lack of firepower points to a low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Londrina averages just 0.8 goals per game with a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating occasional higher scoring matches but generally low output.
  • Ponte Preta has failed to score recently and concedes 2.8 goals per game, yet their matches rarely exceed 2 goals, supporting a low total.
  • Londrina's average shots (15.8) and shots on target (4.4) surpass Ponte Preta's (9.2 shots, 1.8 on target), but finishing remains limited.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 2.3 goals, suggesting a tendency toward tighter scorelines in this fixture.
  • Both teams' recent form and season stats align with a cautious game, favoring Under 2.5 Goals as a value bet.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 59.1% chance, reflecting the low scoring outputs and defensive tendencies of both Londrina and Ponte Preta. Despite Ponte Preta's defensive struggles, their inability to score and Londrina's moderate attacking threat create a scenario where goals are limited. The at 2.1 offer positive value given the implied chance of 47.6%, making this a solid selection based on statistical trends and tactical context. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance59.1%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance47.6%
Strong positive
Value Edge11.5%
Strong positive
Confidence Level72
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a tactically sound pick given Londrina's limited scoring and Ponte Preta's offensive struggles. The data shows both teams favor cautious play with few clear chances, making a low-scoring match the most probable outcome.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match scoring dynamics

“This fixture's low scoring potential is underscored by both teams' recent inability to convert chances and a tactical setup that prioritizes defensive solidity over attacking risk.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Ponte Preta has failed to score recently and concedes 2.8 goals per game, yet their matches rarely exceed 2 goals, supporting a low total.

Londrina's average shots (15.8) and shots on target (4.4) surpass Ponte Preta's (9.2 shots, 1.8 on target), but finishing remains limited.

Head-to-head meetings average 2.3 goals, suggesting a tendency toward tighter scorelines in this fixture.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals total is 2.3, indicating a trend toward matches with fewer goals.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and defensive solidity that limit scoring opportunities, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Londrina5.6
Avg corners for
Ponte Preta3.4
Londrina9.8
Avg total corners
Ponte Preta11.6
Londrina2.2
Avg yellow cards
Ponte Preta2
Londrina15.8
Avg shots
Ponte Preta9.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Londrina's higher average shots (15.8) and corners (5.6) contrast with Ponte Preta's lower offensive stats, but the low shots on target and modest fouling rates suggest limited sustained pressure and fewer set-piece opportunities, aligning with a quieter match in terms of cards and corners.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Londrina0.8
Avg goals scored
Ponte Preta0
Londrina1
Avg goals conceded
Ponte Preta2.8
Londrina60%
BTTS rate
Ponte Preta0%
Londrina60%
Over 2.5 goals
Ponte Preta20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 48% · edge +11.5 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Goal trends show Londrina averaging 0.8 goals per game and Ponte Preta failing to score recently, while BTTS rates are 60% for Londrina and 0% for Ponte Preta. This asymmetry indicates a low probability of both teams scoring, supporting an Under 2.5 Goals outcome with limited goal events expected.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLondrina to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 78% · edge -4.1 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Ponte Preta to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.1, reflecting a positive as the model estimates a 59.1% chance versus the market's 47.6%. This suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a low-scoring game, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth backing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Londrina

WLDLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
10 Sep 2026A São Bernardo2-1
06 Sep 2026H Operario-PR1-2
01 Sep 2026H Juventude0-0
22 Aug 2026A Ceara1-2
18 Aug 2026H Atletico Goianiense0-0

Ponte Preta

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 8L
11 Sep 2026A Sport Recife0-2
06 Sep 2026H São Bernardo0-2
30 Aug 2026A America Mineiro0-2
23 Aug 2026H Avai0-2
20 Aug 2026A Vila Nova0-6
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
Londrina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Ponte Preta to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
5
Check odds @ 5
Londrina has collected 5 points recently with a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, but actual goals scored remain under one per game, indicating inefficiency in finishing. Ponte Preta's recent form is poor with no points and no goals scored, reflecting offensive struggles that support a low-scoring match scenario.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Londrina wins
1Draws
5Ponte Preta wins
18 May 2026Ponte Preta v Londrina1-4
25 Oct 2025Ponte Preta v Londrina2-0
18 Oct 2025Londrina v Ponte Preta0-0
30 Aug 2025Ponte Preta v Londrina1-0
25 Aug 2023Ponte Preta v Londrina1-0
14 May 2023Londrina v Ponte Preta3-0
Best odds for this sectionLondrina to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 78% · edge -4.1 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Ponte Preta to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 10 previous meetings between Londrina and Ponte Preta average 2.3 goals per game, indicating a history of relatively low-scoring contests. This historical trend supports the expectation of a tight match with limited goal-scoring chances, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Season team stats

Serie B

Londrina27
Played
Ponte Preta27
Londrina1.2
Avg goals for
Ponte Preta0.6
Londrina1.4
Avg goals against
Ponte Preta2.1
Londrina6
Clean sheets
Ponte Preta2
Best odds for this sectionLondrina to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 78% · edge -4.1 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Ponte Preta to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
11
Check odds @ 11
Season-long data shows Londrina scoring 0.8 goals per game and conceding 1, while Ponte Preta concedes 2.8 but scores rarely. Both teams' Under 2.5 Goals rates and defensive records suggest matches tend to be tight and low scoring, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
18Londrina25276714-7
20Ponte Preta10272421-40
Londrina sits 18th with 25 points and Ponte Preta 20th with 10 points, both under pressure to improve results. This league position encourages cautious tactics to avoid defeat, which often results in fewer goals and supports the Under 2.5 Goals market as a reflection of the competitive stakes.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Londrina Over 2.5
20%Ponte Preta Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals total is 2.3, indicating a trend toward matches with fewer goals. This sample suggests a tempo and defensive solidity that limit scoring opportunities, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals trend for this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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