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Vila Nova crestVila Nova

Serie B | Tue 15 Sep, 01:30

Avai v Vila Nova Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B fixture sees Vila Nova traveling to face Avai, with Vila Nova currently in strong form and sitting 4th in the standings, well ahead of Avai in 17th. Vila Nova has accumulated 47 points compared to Avai's 29, reflecting a consistent season. Vila Nova's attacking approach, supported by key players like Rafa Silva and Ryan, contrasts with Avai's more modest goal output. The match carries significant importance for Vila Nova to maintain their promotion push, while Avai aims to improve their precarious league position. Tactical discipline and finishing efficiency will be crucial in this contest.

BT4Y best bet

Vila Nova to Win

  • Vila Nova ranks 4th with 47 points, Avai 17th with 29 points
  • Vila Nova averages 17.67 shots and 8.67 shots on target per game, Avai 14.6 and 3.8 respectively
  • Vila Nova has a 0% BTTS rate this season, indicating defensive solidity
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.3 over last 10 matches, suggesting moderate scoring
  • Vila Nova’s Rafa Silva and Ryan are key attacking threats with strong shot and goal stats

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Vila Nova to win with a 66.4% chance, reflecting their superior league position, recent form, and attacking metrics. Vila Nova's higher average shots and shots on target per game indicate sustained offensive pressure, while their defensive record is solid with only 1 goal conceded per match on average. The model identifies a significant at current of 2.7, highlighting Vila Nova's strong probability of victory. The absence of data limitations enhances in this pick, supported by consistent player performances and team momentum.

Model Win Probability66.4%
Strong positive
Value Edge vs Odds29.4%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsVila Nova 10, Avai 6
Positive
Shots on Target per GameVila Nova 8.67, Avai 3.8
Strong positive
Defensive SolidityVila Nova concedes 1 goal per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Vila Nova’s superior attacking output and league standing make them the clear favorite to win this fixture. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain defensive discipline provides a tactical edge over Avai, who have struggled for consistency. Vila Nova’s form and player quality should see them secure the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Vila Nova to Win

“Vila Nova’s blend of attacking efficiency and defensive stability positions them well to capitalize on Avai’s vulnerabilities. Their key players consistently create and convert chances, making them a formidable opponent in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Vila Nova to Win evidence

Vila Nova ranks 4th with 47 points, Avai 17th with 29 points

Vila Nova averages 17.67 shots and 8.67 shots on target per game, Avai 14.6 and 3.8 respectively

Vila Nova has a 0% BTTS rate this season, indicating defensive solidity

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.3 over last 10 matches, suggesting moderate scoring

What To Watch In The Data

Vila Nova to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • Vila Nova’s defensive discipline and Avai’s lower scoring output suggest a match with controlled chances rather than high-scoring fireworks.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Avai4.2
Avg corners for
Vila Nova5
Avai9.8
Avg total corners
Vila Nova10
Avai1.8
Avg yellow cards
Vila Nova2.4
Avai14.6
Avg shots
Vila Nova17
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +10.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Vila Nova averages more corners (5.33) and fewer yellow cards (1.33) than Avai, reflecting controlled attacking pressure and disciplined play. Their higher shots on target (8.67) underline offensive control, while Avai’s lower shot volume suggests less sustained pressure.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Avai1
Avg goals scored
Vila Nova2
Avai1.2
Avg goals conceded
Vila Nova1
Avai40%
BTTS rate
Vila Nova0%
Avai40%
Over 2.5 goals
Vila Nova40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 58% · edge +2.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have a 40% rate for over 2.5 goals, but Vila Nova’s 0% BTTS rate indicates they often keep clean sheets. The average 2.3 goals in their head-to-head matches suggest moderate scoring, with Vila Nova’s defensive strength likely limiting Avai’s goal threat.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
The for Vila Nova to win at 2.7 offer strong value given the model’s 66.4% estimated chance. This significant suggests the market underestimates Vila Nova’s likelihood of victory, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth backing with standard stakes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Avai

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
09 Sep 2026A Fortaleza EC0-1
05 Sep 2026A Novorizontino1-3
30 Aug 2026H Atletico Goianiense0-1
23 Aug 2026A Ponte Preta2-0
19 Aug 2026H Sport Recife2-1

Vila Nova

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
10 Sep 2026H Goias2-0
05 Sep 2026A Athletic Club0-5
30 Aug 2026H Ceara2-0
23 Aug 2026A Operario-PR0-0
20 Aug 2026H Ponte Preta6-0
Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Vila Nova’s recent form shows 10 points gained with 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded, indicating effective offense and defense. Avai’s 6 points with 1 goal scored and 1.2 conceded reflect struggles in attack and defensive lapses. This form disparity supports Vila Nova’s winning chances.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Avai wins
4Draws
4Vila Nova wins
17 May 2026Vila Nova v Avai2-0
08 Nov 2025Vila Nova v Avai2-2
19 Jul 2025Avai v Vila Nova1-1
26 Oct 2024Avai v Vila Nova3-0
14 Jul 2024Vila Nova v Avai2-1
12 Aug 2023Vila Nova v Avai1-1
Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 10 previous meetings average 2.3 goals per game, showing moderate scoring. Vila Nova’s historical performances provide some support for their favored status, though the sample suggests matches are competitive and not high scoring, highlighting the importance of tactical execution.
Season team stats

Serie B

Avai27
Played
Vila Nova27
Avai1
Avg goals for
Vila Nova1.4
Avai1.3
Avg goals against
Vila Nova1.1
Avai7
Clean sheets
Vila Nova9
Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Vila Nova’s season stats reveal a potent attack averaging 2 goals per game and a solid defense conceding only 1 goal per match. Avai’s lower scoring rate and higher goals conceded highlight their challenges. Vila Nova’s balanced profile underpins their favored status.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Vila Nova472714589
17Avai29278514-7
Vila Nova’s 4th place with 47 points contrasts sharply with Avai’s 17th and 29 points, emphasizing the pressure on Avai to improve while Vila Nova aims to consolidate promotion positions. The standings reflect Vila Nova’s consistency and Avai’s need for results.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Avai Over 2.5
40%Vila Nova Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. Vila Nova’s defensive discipline and Avai’s lower scoring output suggest a match with controlled chances rather than high-scoring fireworks.

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