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Nautico Recife crestNautico Recife
v
Operario-PR crestOperario-PR

Serie B | Tue 15 Sep, 23:30

Nautico Recife v Operario-PR Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nautico Recife hosts Operario-PR in a Serie B clash where both teams have shown competitive intensity and tactical discipline. Nautico Recife sits mid-table with 37 points, while Operario-PR is slightly ahead with 43 points, adding significance to this encounter. Both sides average similar goal outputs but differ in defensive solidity, setting up a contest likely to feature physical battles in midfield and on the flanks. The match promises tactical adjustments and robust challenges as both teams aim to secure vital points in a tightly contested league phase.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Nautico Recife averages 1.75 yellow cards per game, Operario-PR 3.5, indicating a high card count potential.
  • Both teams have a moderate BTTS rate, suggesting controlled scoring but physical play.
  • Operario-PR ranks 7th with 43 points, Nautico Recife 12th with 37, increasing competitive tension.
  • Player data shows Luiz Felipe and Arnaldo from Nautico Recife have high card risk indexes.
  • Recent form shows both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate but a higher card propensity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 4.5 Cards as a value bet with a 65.1% chance against an implied 57.8%, reflecting the aggressive defensive styles and fouling tendencies of both teams. Nautico Recife's midfielders and defenders, especially Luiz Felipe and Arnaldo, have high card risk profiles, while Operario-PR's higher average yellows per game support the expectation of numerous cautions. The competitive stakes and tactical intensity forecast a match with frequent fouls and disciplinary actions. No price warnings apply, making this a solid selection with standard staking advised.

Model Chance65.1%
Strong positive
Implied Chance57.8%
Positive
Value Edge7.3%
Strong positive
Nautico Recife Yellow Cards Avg1.75 per game
Positive
Operario-PR Yellow Cards Avg3.5 per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically intense match with both teams engaging in tactical fouling to disrupt play, driving the card count above 4.5. Nautico Recife's defensive midfielders and Operario-PR's aggressive style underpin this forecast, supported by their recent disciplinary records and the competitive nature of this Serie B fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture's card market is compelling given the contrasting defensive aggression and high fouling rates, especially from Nautico Recife's Luiz Felipe and Operario-PR's combative midfielders. The tactical battle in midfield should push the referee to issue multiple cautions.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Nautico Recife averages 1.75 yellow cards per game, Operario-PR 3.5, indicating a high card count potential.

Operario-PR ranks 7th with 43 points, Nautico Recife 12th with 37, increasing competitive tension.

Player data shows Luiz Felipe and Arnaldo from Nautico Recife have high card risk indexes.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 3.13, indicating open games but not necessarily high scoring every time.
  • The trend suggests a balanced tempo with potential for physical contests, which often correlate with higher card counts rather than just goal volume.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nautico Recife1.2
Avg goals scored
Operario-PR1.2
Nautico Recife0.8
Avg goals conceded
Operario-PR0.6
Nautico Recife60%
BTTS rate
Operario-PR40%
Nautico Recife40%
Over 2.5 goals
Operario-PR40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 Goals and mixed BTTS records, indicating moderate scoring but controlled matches. The lower BTTS rate for Operario-PR (40%) versus Nautico Recife (60%) suggests a more cautious approach, supporting a game where fouls and tactical fouling may dominate over open attacking play.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nautico Recife

LWWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
10 Sep 2026A America Mineiro1-2
04 Sep 2026H Botafogo SP1-0
29 Aug 2026H Athletic Club2-1
23 Aug 2026A São Bernardo1-1
19 Aug 2026H Ceara1-0

Operario-PR

WWDDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
10 Sep 2026H CRB3-0
06 Sep 2026A Londrina2-1
31 Aug 2026A Fortaleza EC1-1
23 Aug 2026H Vila Nova0-0
20 Aug 2026A Cuiaba0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 52% · edge +8.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Operario-PR to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Operario-PR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Nautico Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form shows Nautico Recife and Operario-PR averaging 1.75 and 3.5 yellow cards per game respectively, reflecting aggressive defensive approaches. Both teams have similar goal-scoring rates but differ in card accumulation, with Operario-PR's higher card average supporting the bet on Over 4.5 Cards in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Operario-PR432712783
14Nautico Recife3727107102
Operario-PR's higher league position and points tally compared to Nautico Recife add competitive pressure, likely intensifying the physicality and tactical fouling in the match. This context supports the expectation of multiple cards as both teams fight for crucial points.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Operario-PR to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Operario-PR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Nautico Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
The Over 4.5 Cards market is priced attractively at 1.73, reflecting a 57.8% implied chance, while the model estimates a higher 65.1% likelihood. This positive suggests the market underestimates the disciplinary intensity expected from both teams, making this a favorable bet with standard stakes.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Nautico Recife6
Avg corners for
Operario-PR3.6
Nautico Recife9.67
Avg total corners
Operario-PR10.6
Nautico Recife1.67
Avg yellow cards
Operario-PR3
Nautico Recife12.33
Avg shots
Operario-PR13
Market aligned with main pickOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 58% · edge +3.6 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Nautico Recife averages 6.5 corners and 1.75 yellow cards per game, while Operario-PR averages 4.25 corners and 3.5 yellows. The higher card average for Operario-PR combined with solid shot volumes (Nautico 15.75, Operario 14) indicates sustained pressure and physical challenges, increasing the likelihood of multiple cards.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Nautico Recife wins
2Draws
2Operario-PR wins
16 May 2026Operario-PR v Nautico Recife2-6
29 Jul 2023Operario-PR v Nautico Recife1-1
05 Aug 2022Operario-PR v Nautico Recife1-0
24 Apr 2022Nautico Recife v Operario-PR2-0
02 Oct 2021Operario-PR v Nautico Recife1-2
02 Jul 2021Nautico Recife v Operario-PR5-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Operario-PR to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Nautico Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The eight previous meetings between Nautico Recife and Operario-PR have averaged 3.13 goals per game, showing open and competitive encounters. While goal trends are moderate, the physicality inherent in these fixtures supports the expectation of a high card count, aligning with the Over 4.5 Cards pick.
Season team stats

Serie B

Nautico Recife27
Played
Operario-PR0
Nautico Recife1.2
Avg goals for
Operario-PR-
Nautico Recife1.1
Avg goals against
Operario-PR-
Nautico Recife8
Clean sheets
Operario-PR-
Best odds for this sectionOperario-PR to WinBet365 guide price · Model 34% vs implied 23% · edge +10.5 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Load more odds for this section
Operario-PR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Nautico Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Season-long data reveals Operario-PR's tendency to accumulate more yellow cards per match than Nautico Recife, highlighting a more physical style. Nautico's moderate card count combined with their defensive fouling patterns contributes to the overall expectation of a high card count in this match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Nautico Recife Over 2.5
40%Operario-PR Over 2.5
3.13H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 3.13, indicating open games but not necessarily high scoring every time. The trend suggests a balanced tempo with potential for physical contests, which often correlate with higher card counts rather than just goal volume.

Related football research

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