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Botafogo SP crestBotafogo SP
v
Goias crestGoias

Serie B | Mon 14 Sep, 23:30

Botafogo SP v Goias Stats

Data last updated: Sun 13 Sep 2026, 08:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Botafogo SP hosting Goias in a contest where Goias arrives with a slight edge in recent form and league standing. Goias sits 13th with 36 points, just above Botafogo SP in 15th with 31 points. Both teams have struggled for consistent scoring, but Goias has conceded fewer goals and demonstrated a more balanced defensive shape. The match carries importance for both sides aiming to climb the table, with Goias likely to leverage their slightly better momentum and attacking threats to challenge Botafogo SP on the road.

BT4Y best bet

Goias to Win

  • Goias holds a higher league position and better recent form points tally.
  • Goias concedes fewer goals per game than Botafogo SP, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Botafogo SP has a higher rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, but Goias tends to play tighter games.
  • Key Goias attackers like Kadu and E. García show strong goal threat and shot volume.
  • Goias averages fewer corners and cards, suggesting a more controlled and disciplined approach.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Goias to win with a 57.6% chance, reflecting their stronger defensive record and more efficient attack compared to Botafogo SP. Despite the implying a 27.8% chance, the model sees significant value in backing Goias due to their superior recent form, better points tally, and key attacking players like Kadu and E. García who consistently generate shots and goal opportunities. The data quality is solid for both teams, supporting in this selection.

Model Chance57.6%
Strong positive
Implied Chance by Odds27.8%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsGoias 4 vs Botafogo SP 1
Positive
Goals Conceded Per GameGoias 1.2 vs Botafogo SP 2.0
Strong positive
Key Player Goal ThreatKadu 7 goals, E. García 0.35 goals per 90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Goias' slightly better defensive record and recent form suggest they can edge this match. Their attackers, especially Kadu and E. García, provide a reliable goal threat, while Botafogo SP's defensive vulnerabilities increase the chance of Goias capitalizing on scoring opportunities. This combination supports a Goias win in a competitive fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Goias demonstrate a balanced approach with key attackers delivering consistent threat and a defense that concedes less, making them a logical choice to secure victory in this tight Serie B encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Goias to Win evidence

Goias holds a higher league position and better recent form points tally.

Goias concedes fewer goals per game than Botafogo SP, indicating defensive solidity.

Botafogo SP has a higher rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, but Goias tends to play tighter games.

Key Goias attackers like Kadu and E. García show strong goal threat and shot volume.

What To Watch In The Data

Goias to Win notes

  • In the last five matches between these teams, the average goals scored is 2.4, indicating moderately open games.
  • Botafogo SP's higher over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Goias' more conservative approach, suggesting that goal-scoring opportunities may depend on which team controls the tempo and defensive organization.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Botafogo SP0.6
Avg goals scored
Goias0.6
Botafogo SP2
Avg goals conceded
Goias1.2
Botafogo SP60%
BTTS rate
Goias40%
Botafogo SP60%
Over 2.5 goals
Goias20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 24%
5
Check odds @ 5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Goal trends show Botafogo SP has a 60% over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Goias, however, has a lower 20% over 2.5 and 40% BTTS rate, suggesting tighter matches. This contrast points to a tactical battle where Goias may control the game and limit Botafogo SP's scoring chances.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGoias to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Goias Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
The Goias to Win market shows strong value as the model estimates a 57.6% chance against implying only 27.8%. This significant is driven by Goias' better defensive record and attacking efficiency, making the current price attractive for backing an away win.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Botafogo SP6
Avg corners for
Goias4
Botafogo SP11.6
Avg total corners
Goias9
Botafogo SP2.2
Avg yellow cards
Goias1.8
Botafogo SP12.4
Avg shots
Goias11.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Botafogo SP averages more corners (6) and yellow cards (2.2) than Goias (4 corners, 1.8 cards), reflecting a more aggressive and attacking style that yields set-piece opportunities but also disciplinary risks. Goias maintains a more disciplined approach with slightly fewer shots but higher shots on target, indicating efficient finishing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Botafogo SP

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
09 Sep 2026H Novorizontino1-3
04 Sep 2026A Nautico Recife0-1
29 Aug 2026H Cuiaba1-2
25 Aug 2026A Atletico Goianiense0-3
20 Aug 2026H Criciuma1-1

Goias

LLWDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
10 Sep 2026A Vila Nova0-2
05 Sep 2026H Fortaleza EC0-1
28 Aug 2026H São Bernardo2-1
22 Aug 2026A Cuiaba1-1
19 Aug 2026H Juventude0-1
Market aligned with main pickGoias to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Goias Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form favors Goias, who have collected 4 points compared to Botafogo SP's 1 in their last matches. Goias' tighter defense, conceding 1.2 goals per game versus Botafogo SP's 2.0, underpins their improved results and suggests they are better positioned to secure a win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Botafogo SP wins
0Draws
3Goias wins
16 May 2026Goias v Botafogo SP1-0
30 Aug 2025Goias v Botafogo SP2-3
28 Apr 2025Botafogo SP v Goias0-1
10 Sep 2024Botafogo SP v Goias1-0
18 May 2024Goias v Botafogo SP4-0
Market aligned with main pickGoias to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
The head-to-head sample of five matches shows an average of 2.4 goals per game, reflecting moderately balanced encounters. While previous meetings provide some context, current form and tactical setups carry more weight in predicting the outcome of this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Botafogo SP27
Played
Goias27
Botafogo SP1.1
Avg goals for
Goias0.9
Botafogo SP1.2
Avg goals against
Goias1.2
Botafogo SP5
Clean sheets
Goias7
Market aligned with main pickGoias to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
Goias Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Season-long stats show Goias with a more balanced attack and defense, conceding fewer goals and maintaining a lower BTTS rate. Botafogo SP's higher over 2.5 goals rate indicates vulnerability at the back and a more open playing style, which could be exploited by Goias' efficient attackers.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
13Goias362710611-8
15Botafogo SP31278712-2
Goias sit 13th with 36 points, slightly ahead of Botafogo SP in 15th with 31 points. This narrow gap highlights the competitive nature of the fixture, with Goias' better form and points tally providing them with a slight edge in the battle for league positioning.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Botafogo SP Over 2.5
20%Goias Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last five matches between these teams, the average goals scored is 2.4, indicating moderately open games. Botafogo SP's higher over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Goias' more conservative approach, suggesting that goal-scoring opportunities may depend on which team controls the tempo and defensive organization.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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