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Londrina crestLondrina
v
Fortaleza EC crestFortaleza EC

Serie B | Sun 20 Sep, 22:30

Londrina v Fortaleza EC Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B fixture features Fortaleza EC visiting Londrina in a contest where Fortaleza EC holds a significant advantage in the league standings and recent form. Fortaleza EC sits 4th with 48 points, well ahead of Londrina in 18th with 28 points. Fortaleza EC's defensive solidity is notable, conceding just 0.4 goals per game compared to Londrina's 1.0, while Londrina has a higher goals scored rate but also leaks more goals. Fortaleza EC's tactical discipline and consistent away performances set the stage for a competitive match with Fortaleza EC favored to secure victory.

BT4Y best bet

Fortaleza EC to Win

  • Fortaleza EC ranks 4th with 48 points; Londrina 18th with 28 points.
  • Fortaleza EC concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showing strong defense.
  • Londrina has a higher Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%) but Fortaleza EC has none (0%).
  • Fortaleza EC averages fewer shots but is more efficient defensively.
  • Fortaleza EC's Paulo Baya averages 2.2 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Fortaleza EC to win with a 54.8% chance, reflecting their superior league position and defensive record. Despite Londrina's higher goal-scoring rate and aggressive shot volume, Fortaleza EC's disciplined defense and efficient attack provide a strong foundation. The at 2.55 offer positive value against the implied 39.2% chance, making this a compelling pick. Player data supports Fortaleza EC's attacking threats like Paulo Baya, while Londrina's defensive vulnerabilities increase the likelihood of an away win. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Win Probability54.8%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance39.2%
Strong positive
Value Edge15.6%
Strong positive
Fortaleza EC Defensive Strength0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Londrina Offensive Pressure18.25 shots per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fortaleza EC's solid defensive record and higher league standing make them the logical choice to win this match. Their ability to limit goals conceded contrasts with Londrina's defensive frailties, providing a tactical and statistical edge that supports backing Fortaleza EC to secure all three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Fortaleza EC's disciplined defense and efficient attack give them a clear edge over Londrina, whose defensive lapses and lower league position make them vulnerable in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Fortaleza EC to Win evidence

Fortaleza EC ranks 4th with 48 points; Londrina 18th with 28 points.

Fortaleza EC concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showing strong defense.

Londrina has a higher Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%) but Fortaleza EC has none (0%).

Fortaleza EC averages fewer shots but is more efficient defensively.

What To Watch In The Data

Fortaleza EC to Win notes

  • In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.67, suggesting moderately open games.
  • Londrina's high Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Fortaleza EC's defensive approach, indicating a potential for tactical adjustments to control tempo and limit scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Londrina2
Avg goals scored
Fortaleza EC1.2
Londrina1
Avg goals conceded
Fortaleza EC0.4
Londrina60%
BTTS rate
Fortaleza EC40%
Londrina80%
Over 2.5 goals
Fortaleza EC0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Londrina's matches have an 80% rate of Over 2.5 goals and 60% BTTS, indicating open games with scoring from both sides. Fortaleza EC, however, has a 0% Over 2.5 rate and 40% BTTS, reflecting a more defensive style. This contrast suggests a tactical battle where Fortaleza EC aims to contain Londrina's attacking threats, potentially limiting the total goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
The for Fortaleza EC to win at 2.55 reflect a market underestimation of their chances, given the model's 54.8% win probability. This positive suggests the price is attractive for bettors seeking a solid away win, with room for further if Fortaleza EC maintains defensive discipline.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Londrina6.2
Avg corners for
Fortaleza EC5
Londrina9.4
Avg total corners
Fortaleza EC8
Londrina2.4
Avg yellow cards
Fortaleza EC1.75
Londrina17
Avg shots
Fortaleza EC15.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 60% · edge -1.9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Londrina averages more corners (7.5) and shots (18.25) than Fortaleza EC, indicating territorial control and attacking pressure. Fortaleza EC's discipline is shown by fewer yellow cards (1 vs. 2.5), which may help maintain defensive shape. The shot volume disparity highlights Londrina's offensive intent but also Fortaleza EC's ability to absorb pressure effectively.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Londrina

WWLDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
15 Sep 2026H Ponte Preta6-0
10 Sep 2026A São Bernardo2-1
06 Sep 2026H Operario-PR1-2
01 Sep 2026H Juventude0-0
22 Aug 2026A Ceara1-2

Fortaleza EC

DWWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
13 Sep 2026H Ceara1-1
09 Sep 2026H Avai1-0
05 Sep 2026A Goias1-0
31 Aug 2026H Operario-PR1-1
23 Aug 2026A Criciuma2-0
Market aligned with main pickFortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 81%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Fortaleza EC's recent form is strong, accumulating 11 points with a solid defensive record of 0.4 goals conceded per game. Londrina has 7 points but concedes more, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. This form disparity underlines Fortaleza EC's momentum and tactical stability, reinforcing their chances to secure a win in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Londrina wins
1Draws
2Fortaleza EC wins
23 May 2026Fortaleza EC v Londrina3-0
25 Aug 2018Fortaleza EC v Londrina2-1
01 May 2018Londrina v Fortaleza EC1-1
Market aligned with main pickFortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
The three previous meetings between Londrina and Fortaleza EC have averaged 2.67 goals per game, showing a tendency for moderate scoring. While Londrina's attacking style has influenced these matches, Fortaleza EC's defensive improvements suggest a more cautious approach this time, making past results a partial but not definitive guide.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Londrina28
Played
Fortaleza EC28
Londrina1.4
Avg goals for
Fortaleza EC1.1
Londrina1.4
Avg goals against
Fortaleza EC0.8
Londrina7
Clean sheets
Fortaleza EC13
Market aligned with main pickFortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Fortaleza EC's season-long defensive record is impressive, conceding only 0.4 goals per game, which is among the best in the league. Londrina's higher goals scored rate is offset by a leaky defense allowing 1 goal per game. Fortaleza EC's balanced attack and tight defense provide a solid foundation for victory, especially away from home.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Fortaleza EC482813968
18Londrina28287714-1
The league standings show Fortaleza EC comfortably placed 4th with 48 points, indicating consistent performance and competitiveness. Londrina's 18th position with 28 points reflects struggles and pressure near the relegation zone. This table context highlights the stakes and psychological edge Fortaleza EC holds going into the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Londrina Over 2.5
0%Fortaleza EC Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.67, suggesting moderately open games. Londrina's high Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Fortaleza EC's defensive approach, indicating a potential for tactical adjustments to control tempo and limit scoring opportunities in this fixture.

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