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Athletic Club crestAthletic Club
v
Botafogo SP crestBotafogo SP

Serie B | Sat 19 Sep, 22:30

Athletic Club v Botafogo SP Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Athletic Club face Botafogo SP in Serie B on Sat 19 Sep, 22:30. Athletic Club come in with 6 recent points and 1.8 goals per match, while Botafogo SP have 0 points and 0.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Athletic Club to Win

  • At 2.25, Athletic Club to Win implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 59%.
  • Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Botafogo SP.
  • Athletic Club have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded per match, which helps the Athletic Club to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Athletic Club sit 10 in the table, while Botafogo SP sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 59% for Athletic Club to Win sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Botafogo SP.

Model chance vs price59% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Strong positive
Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 6.Visible data support
Positive
Athletic Club have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Athletic Club Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Botafogo SP. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Athletic Club to Win evidence

Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 0 for Botafogo SP.

Athletic Club have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded per match, which helps the Athletic Club Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Athletic Club sit 10 in the table, while Botafogo SP sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Athletic Club to Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Athletic Club4.4
    Avg corners for
    Botafogo SP5.25
    Athletic Club8.4
    Avg total corners
    Botafogo SP11
    Athletic Club1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Botafogo SP3.25
    Athletic Club9
    Avg shots
    Botafogo SP11.25
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +3.9 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Athletic Club1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Botafogo SP0.6
    Athletic Club1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Botafogo SP2.4
    Athletic Club40%
    BTTS rate
    Botafogo SP60%
    Athletic Club80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Botafogo SP80%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 77%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Athletic Club to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Athletic Club

    WLWLL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 4L
    13 Sep 2026A Juventude2-0
    09 Sep 2026A Cuiaba0-3
    05 Sep 2026H Vila Nova5-0
    29 Aug 2026A Nautico Recife1-2
    24 Aug 2026H Novorizontino1-4

    Botafogo SP

    LLLLL
    Last 50W 0D 5L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 6L
    14 Sep 2026H Goias1-3
    09 Sep 2026H Novorizontino1-3
    04 Sep 2026A Nautico Recife0-1
    29 Aug 2026H Cuiaba1-2
    25 Aug 2026A Atletico Goianiense0-3
    Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 77%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Athletic Club wins
    0Draws
    0Botafogo SP wins
    25 May 2026Botafogo SP v Athletic Club1-2
    14 Sep 2025Athletic Club v Botafogo SP2-0
    12 May 2025Botafogo SP v Athletic Club0-3
    Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Athletic Club to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie B

    Athletic Club28
    Played
    Botafogo SP28
    Athletic Club1.2
    Avg goals for
    Botafogo SP1.1
    Athletic Club1.1
    Avg goals against
    Botafogo SP1.3
    Athletic Club8
    Clean sheets
    Botafogo SP5
    Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 77%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Season data supports Athletic Club to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    10Athletic Club4028101083
    16Botafogo SP31288713-4
    Athletic Club sit in position 10, while Botafogo SP sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the Athletic Club to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Athletic Club Over 2.5
    80%Botafogo SP Over 2.5
    2.67H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Athletic Club sit at 80% and Botafogo SP sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.67 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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