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Swansea crestSwansea

Championship | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

Lincoln v Swansea Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lincoln and Swansea meet in a Championship clash where both teams show contrasting attacking styles and defensive tendencies. Lincoln, ranked 8th with 11 points, have a conservative goal output but maintain steady defensive discipline. Swansea, sitting 2nd with 14 points, exhibit a more aggressive attacking approach, averaging nearly two goals per game. The match promises territorial battles and sustained pressure, with Swansea's higher offensive tempo likely to generate numerous set-piece opportunities. Both sides' recent form and tactical setups suggest a game with frequent corner situations, driven by wide play and attacking intent from Swansea and resilient defending from Lincoln.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Swansea averages 4.67 corners per game, Lincoln 3.0, combining for over 7.5 corners on average.
  • Model projects a 69% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, indicating strong corner volume likelihood.
  • Swansea's attacking style and Lincoln's defensive resilience create repeated corner scenarios.
  • Recent matches show both teams engaging in wide attacks and set-piece deliveries.
  • Player fouling and pressure stats suggest frequent stoppages leading to corners.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 69% probability for Over 9.5 Corners, significantly above the 59.9% implied chance from current , indicating positive value. Swansea's attacking volume and Lincoln's defensive style contribute to frequent corner situations. Both teams' average corners per match and fouling rates support a high-corner game. is strong at 79%, with no data limitations affecting reliability. This combination of tactical and statistical factors underpins the model's preference for this corners market.

Model Chance69% probability for Over 9.5 Corners
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance59.9%
Neutral
Value Edge+9.1%
Strong positive
Confidence Level79%
Strong positive
Team Corner AveragesSwansea 4.67, Lincoln 3.0 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with sustained attacking pressure from Swansea and disciplined defending from Lincoln, creating numerous corner situations. Swansea's higher corner average and Lincoln's tendency to concede set pieces through fouls and wide attacks suggest Over 9.5 Corners is a tactically sound bet backed by strong data signals.

Main risk

Swansea's defensive solidity is a key challenge but not a barrier to Lincoln scoring.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · corners market

“Swansea's aggressive wing play combined with Lincoln's defensive resilience typically results in a high number of corners, making Over 9.5 Corners a compelling market for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Swansea averages 4.67 corners per game, Lincoln 3.0, combining for over 7.5 corners on average.

Model projects a 69% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, indicating strong corner volume likelihood.

Swansea's attacking style and Lincoln's defensive resilience create repeated corner scenarios.

Recent matches show both teams engaging in wide attacks and set-piece deliveries.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last five matches, Swansea's games have featured a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, indicating open play and attacking tempo.
  • Lincoln's matches have been lower scoring but involve defensive pressure that can lead to transitions and set-piece chances.
  • This trend supports a match with frequent attacking actions conducive to multiple corners.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lincoln0.8
Avg goals scored
Swansea1.8
Lincoln0.2
Avg goals conceded
Swansea0.8
Lincoln20%
BTTS rate
Swansea40%
Lincoln0%
Over 2.5 goals
Swansea60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 52% · edge +13.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
While Swansea averages 1.8 goals per game and Lincoln 0.8, Lincoln's low BTTS rate of 20% contrasts with Swansea's 40%, indicating a moderate likelihood of goals from Swansea. The goal trends suggest a match where attacking pressure may not always translate into goals but can still generate set-piece chances, aligning with the corners market.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLincoln Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 50% · edge +3.1 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Lincoln to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Swansea to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Swansea Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced with an implied chance of 59.9%, while the model estimates a 69% probability, indicating a positive of 9.1%. This suggests the current offer a favorable opportunity to back the corners market, supported by strong and consistent team corner averages.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lincoln3.6
Avg corners for
Swansea4.4
Lincoln14.8
Avg total corners
Swansea9.4
Lincoln2.6
Avg yellow cards
Swansea1.6
Lincoln12.6
Avg shots
Swansea14
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Swansea's average of 4.67 corners per game and Lincoln's 3.0 reflect active wing play and defensive clearances. Both teams maintain moderate fouling rates, with Lincoln averaging 3 yellows and Swansea 2.33, indicating physical contests that often lead to set-piece situations. Shot volumes further support sustained attacking pressure contributing to corner opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lincoln

WWDDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
15 Sep 2026A Bristol City1-0
12 Sep 2026A Preston1-0
05 Sep 2026H Southampton1-1
01 Sep 2026H Blackburn0-0
29 Aug 2026A Bolton1-0

Swansea

WLDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 1L
12 Sep 2026H Burnley3-1
08 Sep 2026A Southampton1-3
05 Sep 2026H Wrexham0-0
01 Sep 2026H Watford2-0
29 Aug 2026A Derby3-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 67% · edge +5.9 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Lincoln Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Lincoln to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Swansea to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Swansea Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Lincoln's recent form shows 11 points with a low goal output but solid defensive record, while Swansea holds 10 points with a higher scoring rate. Swansea's 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate contrasts with Lincoln's 0%, but both teams' recent matches feature consistent corner counts, supporting the likelihood of Over 9.5 Corners in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Lincoln wins
0Draws
0Swansea wins
Best odds for this sectionLincoln to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 36% · edge +7 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Load more odds for this section
Swansea to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
No previous head-to-head meetings exist between Lincoln and Swansea, limiting direct historical analysis. Therefore, current tactical styles, recent form, and statistical profiles provide the primary basis for corner market expectations in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Season team stats

Championship

Lincoln7
Played
Swansea7
Lincoln0.9
Avg goals for
Swansea1.6
Lincoln0.9
Avg goals against
Swansea0.7
Lincoln4
Clean sheets
Swansea4
Best odds for this sectionLincoln Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 50% · edge +3.1 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Lincoln to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Swansea to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Swansea Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season-long data reveals Swansea's higher corner averages and more aggressive attacking style compared to Lincoln's more conservative approach. Lincoln's defensive solidity often forces opponents into wide areas, increasing corner counts. These season trends align with the model's projection for a high-corner game.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Swansea1474216
8Lincoln1173220
Swansea's 2nd place standing with 14 points reflects strong form and attacking prowess, while Lincoln's 8th place with 11 points indicates competitive resilience. The league positions suggest Swansea will push for control, likely increasing corner opportunities through sustained pressure and attacking intent.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Lincoln Over 2.5
60%Swansea Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Swansea's games have featured a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, indicating open play and attacking tempo. Lincoln's matches have been lower scoring but involve defensive pressure that can lead to transitions and set-piece chances. This trend supports a match with frequent attacking actions conducive to multiple corners.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Lincoln v Swansea prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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