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Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock
v
Dundee Utd crestDundee Utd

Premiership | Sat 29 Aug, 15:00

Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kilmarnock approach this Premiership clash at Rugby Park with strong momentum, having secured back-to-back wins with a combined 6-0 scoreline. Their urgent fight for survival fuels an aggressive attacking style, supported by key players like Findlay Curtis and Joe Hugill. Dundee Utd, meanwhile, arrive with less pressure after securing safety, playing with freedom and relying on counter-attacks led by Simon Murray. The tactical battle will hinge on midfield control and exploiting defensive gaps, promising a high-intensity, emotionally charged encounter with potential for multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Kilmarnock Win & Over 3.5 Goals

  • Kilmarnock have won their last two matches scoring six goals without conceding.
  • Matches involving Kilmarnock average over 3 goals per game this season.
  • Dundee Utd remain unbeaten in their last four meetings with Kilmarnock.
  • Both teams have shown recent scoring ability, increasing the chance of multiple goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Kilmarnock Win & Over 3.5 Goals as a strong value bet with an 18.3% chance against an implied 11.8% market chance, reflecting Kilmarnock's recent attacking surge and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Kilmarnock's aggressive home form combined with Dundee's counter-attacking threat supports a high-scoring game. The model is moderate at 53%, acknowledging some defensive risks but emphasizing the attacking momentum and fixture stakes. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Recent FormKilmarnock's 2 wins with 6 goals scored and 0 conceded
Strong positive
Season Goal AveragesKilmarnock matches average 3.03 goals per game
Positive
H2H RecordDundee unbeaten in last 4 meetings
Neutral
Market Value Edge6.5% positive edge at 15/2 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Kilmarnock's recent attacking form and home advantage make them the likely winners in a match expected to feature multiple goals. Dundee's freedom from relegation pressure and counter-attacking threat add unpredictability, but Kilmarnock's urgency and momentum should prevail in a high-scoring encounter.

Main risk

That creates entertaining football for neutrals but probably causes McCann a few sleepless nights.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goal expectation

“Kilmarnock's sharp transitions and attacking , combined with Dundee's defensive vulnerabilities, set the stage for a thrilling, goal-filled match where the home side's desire for survival could tip the balance.”

Key Data Signals

Kilmarnock Win & Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Kilmarnock have won their last two matches scoring six goals without conceding.

Matches involving Kilmarnock average over 3 goals per game this season.

Dundee Utd remain unbeaten in their last four meetings with Kilmarnock.

Both teams have shown recent scoring ability, increasing the chance of multiple goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Kilmarnock Win & Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 2.5, with recent Kilmarnock games featuring over 3 goals consistently.
  • This trend suggests a pattern of open, high-tempo matches with frequent scoring.
  • The combination of Kilmarnock's attacking urgency and Dundee's counter-attacking style supports the likelihood of exceeding 2.5 goals in this fixture, reinforcing the over 3.5 goals selection.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Kilmarnock4
Avg corners for
Dundee Utd4.33
Kilmarnock10.5
Avg total corners
Dundee Utd11.67
Kilmarnock1.5
Avg yellow cards
Dundee Utd2.33
Kilmarnock8.5
Avg shots
Dundee Utd14.67
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 64% · edge +5.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 56%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Kilmarnock averages 8.5 shots per game with 5 on target, indicating efficient attacking pressure, while Dundee Utd averages more shots (14.67) but fewer on target (2.67), suggesting quantity over quality. Both teams average around 4 corners per match, reflecting balanced territorial play. Discipline-wise, Dundee's higher yellow card average (2.33) versus Kilmarnock's (1.5) hints at a potentially physical contest with fouls influencing game flow.

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Useful next reads

Premiership fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Kilmarnock v Dundee Utdcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kilmarnock2
Avg goals scored
Dundee Utd0.33
Kilmarnock4.5
Avg goals conceded
Dundee Utd2.33
Kilmarnock100%
BTTS rate
Dundee Utd33%
Kilmarnock100%
Over 2.5 goals
Dundee Utd33%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 81%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have demonstrated scoring ability recently, with Kilmarnock averaging 1.19 goals per game but surging to six goals in two matches, while Dundee's counter-attacks and Simon Murray's threat suggest they will find the net. The combination of Kilmarnock's defensive gaps and Dundee's attacking freedom supports a high likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 55% · edge -4.2 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Kilmarnock to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
The 15/2 for Kilmarnock Win & Over 3.5 Goals offer clear value compared to the model's 18.3% chance, reflecting the market's underestimation of Kilmarnock's recent scoring form and Dundee's defensive frailties. This price is attractive given the fixture stakes and attacking profiles, making it a compelling selection without price warnings.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kilmarnock

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
09 Aug 2026H Celtic1-5
02 Aug 2026A ST Johnstone3-4

Dundee Utd

LLD
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
22 Aug 2026H Dundee0-2
09 Aug 2026A Heart Of Midlothian0-4
31 Jul 2026H Rangers1-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 71% · edge -1.7 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Kilmarnock Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Kilmarnock to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Kilmarnock's recent form is impressive, with two consecutive wins scoring six goals and keeping clean sheets, a significant improvement from their season averages. Dundee Utd have shown resilience, remaining unbeaten in four meetings against Kilmarnock and securing survival with recent wins. This momentum contrast highlights Kilmarnock's urgency and Dundee's freedom to play expansively, supporting expectations of an open, high-scoring game.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Kilmarnock wins
4Draws
0Dundee Utd wins
02 May 2026Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd3-0
21 Feb 2026Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock1-1
29 Nov 2025Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd1-1
27 Sep 2025Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock0-2
17 Aug 2025Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd2-1
01 Feb 2025Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd1-0
Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 42% · edge -1.2 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The recent head-to-head record shows Dundee Utd unbeaten in the last four matches against Kilmarnock, including two wins and two draws. While this indicates Dundee's tactical familiarity and resilience, it also suggests tight contests where Kilmarnock's current form and home advantage could be decisive. The historical data provides context but is balanced by recent momentum shifts favoring Kilmarnock.
Season team stats

Premiership

Kilmarnock3
Played
Dundee Utd4
Kilmarnock1.3
Avg goals for
Dundee Utd1.3
Kilmarnock4.3
Avg goals against
Dundee Utd1.8
Kilmarnock0
Clean sheets
Dundee Utd1
Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 55% · edge -4.2 pts
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Load more odds for this section
Kilmarnock to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Kilmarnock's season-long average of 3.03 goals per game underlines their tendency for open, attacking matches, though conceding 1.83 goals per game reveals defensive vulnerabilities. Dundee's lower scoring average (1.06) coupled with conceding 1.56 goals per game reflects a balanced but fragile defensive setup. These season stats align with the prediction of a high-scoring match where Kilmarnock's offensive intensity meets Dundee's counter-attacking threat.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Dundee Utd44112-2
12Kilmarnock03003-9
Kilmarnock sits 12th, fighting to secure Premiership survival, which fuels their aggressive home approach. Dundee Utd, placed 11th, have secured safety and can play with less pressure, often leading to more expressive attacking play. The contrasting stakes create a dynamic where Kilmarnock's desperation meets Dundee's freedom, intensifying the match's competitive edge and goal potential.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Kilmarnock Over 2.5
33%Dundee Utd Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 2.5, with recent Kilmarnock games featuring over 3 goals consistently. This trend suggests a pattern of open, high-tempo matches with frequent scoring. The combination of Kilmarnock's attacking urgency and Dundee's counter-attacking style supports the likelihood of exceeding 2.5 goals in this fixture, reinforcing the over 3.5 goals selection.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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