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Heart Of Midlothian crestHeart Of Midlothian
v
ST Johnstone crestST Johnstone

Premiership | Sat 29 Aug, 15:00

Heart Of Midlothian v ST Johnstone Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Heart Of Midlothian hosts ST Johnstone in a Scottish Premiership clash where both sides have shown attacking intent early in the season. Heart Of Midlothian, ranked 5th, and ST Johnstone, 6th, each have three points from their opening matches, with Heart Of Midlothian boasting a perfect over 2.5 goals record so far. Both teams have averaged multiple shots on target per game, suggesting an open contest with goal-scoring opportunities. The fixture promises a lively encounter with offensive players eager to make an impact, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring game.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Heart Of Midlothian has a 100% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season.
  • ST Johnstone has contributed to over 2.5 goals in 50% of their recent games.
  • Both teams average double-digit shots per game, indicating offensive pressure.
  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 71.6% chance for over 2.5 goals, well above the implied market chance of 55.6%, indicating strong value at 1.8 . Both teams have shown attacking prowess with Heart Of Midlothian averaging 2.5 goals per game and ST Johnstone 2.0, alongside solid shot volumes and goal threat from key players. The recent head-to-head average of 2.9 goals further supports the likelihood of a high-scoring match. No data limitations affect , making this a robust selection based on attacking metrics and match context.

Model Chance71.6%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance55.6%
Neutral
Heart Of Midlothian Goals Per Game2.5
Strong positive
ST Johnstone Goals Per Game2.0
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.9
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both teams pushing forward, as Heart Of Midlothian's strong home attack meets ST Johnstone's willingness to engage offensively. The data supports a match with multiple goals, driven by active shot-making and recent scoring trends from both sides.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“The attacking profiles and recent scoring patterns of both teams suggest this fixture is primed for over 2.5 goals, with key forwards and midfielders likely to create and convert chances.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Heart Of Midlothian has a 100% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season.

ST Johnstone has contributed to over 2.5 goals in 50% of their recent games.

Both teams average double-digit shots per game, indicating offensive pressure.

The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a historical trend toward goal-rich matches.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and attacking statistics, points to a fixture with a high tempo and multiple scoring opportunities, favoring over 2.5 goals outcomes.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Heart Of Midlothian6.5
Avg corners for
ST Johnstone4
Heart Of Midlothian9.5
Avg total corners
ST Johnstone8
Heart Of Midlothian1.5
Avg yellow cards
ST Johnstone1.5
Heart Of Midlothian15.5
Avg shots
ST Johnstone12
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 52% · edge +9.7 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Heart Of Midlothian averages 6.5 corners and 15.5 shots per game, while ST Johnstone averages 4 corners and 12 shots, showing sustained offensive pressure and territorial control. Both sides commit similar fouls and receive comparable yellow cards, suggesting a competitive but balanced physical contest.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Heart Of Midlothian2.5
Avg goals scored
ST Johnstone2
Heart Of Midlothian1
Avg goals conceded
ST Johnstone2
Heart Of Midlothian50%
BTTS rate
ST Johnstone50%
Heart Of Midlothian100%
Over 2.5 goals
ST Johnstone50%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have contributed to matches with multiple goals and a 50% BTTS rate for ST Johnstone, indicating openness in defense and willingness to attack. Heart Of Midlothian's perfect over 2.5 record and the 2.9 average goals in recent head-to-heads reinforce the expectation of a goal-rich game.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
ST Johnstone to WinBetUK guide price · model 32%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The for over 2.5 goals at 1.8 reflect a market underestimating the model's 71.6% probability, presenting a positive . This pricing suggests the market is favorable for backing a high-scoring outcome given the attacking form and historical goal averages.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Heart Of Midlothian

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
09 Aug 2026H Dundee Utd4-0
01 Aug 2026A Aberdeen1-2

ST Johnstone

LW
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
08 Aug 2026A ST Mirren0-1
02 Aug 2026H Kilmarnock4-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 49% · edge +10.7 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
ST Johnstone to WinBetUK guide price · model 32%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Heart Of Midlothian to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Heart Of Midlothian's recent form features a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals matches, scoring 2.5 goals per game while conceding 1. ST Johnstone has a 50% over 2.5 rate, scoring 2 goals and conceding 2 per game. This contrast suggests Heart Of Midlothian's games tend to be higher scoring, with ST Johnstone capable of contributing to goal-rich encounters.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

10Heart Of Midlothian wins
0Draws
0ST Johnstone wins
14 May 2025Heart Of Midlothian v ST Johnstone2-1
23 Feb 2025ST Johnstone v Heart Of Midlothian1-2
22 Dec 2024Heart Of Midlothian v ST Johnstone2-1
02 Nov 2024ST Johnstone v Heart Of Midlothian1-2
07 Feb 2024ST Johnstone v Heart Of Midlothian0-1
25 Nov 2023Heart Of Midlothian v ST Johnstone1-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
ST Johnstone to WinBetUK guide price · model 32%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Heart Of Midlothian to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.9 goals per game, supporting the expectation of a high-scoring encounter. While not definitive, this historical data aligns well with current attacking trends and recent form for both teams.
Season team stats

Premiership

Heart Of Midlothian2
Played
ST Johnstone2
Heart Of Midlothian2.5
Avg goals for
ST Johnstone2
Heart Of Midlothian1
Avg goals against
ST Johnstone2
Heart Of Midlothian1
Clean sheets
ST Johnstone0
Best odds for this sectionST Johnstone to WinBetUK guide price · Model 32% vs implied 22% · edge +10 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Load more odds for this section
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Heart Of Midlothian to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Season-long data shows Heart Of Midlothian with a strong attacking output averaging 2.5 goals per game and a solid defense conceding 1 goal per match. ST Johnstone's attack is slightly less prolific but still averages 2 goals per game. These figures support the likelihood of a match exceeding 2.5 goals based on sustained offensive production.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Heart Of Midlothian321013
6ST Johnstone321010
Both teams sit mid-table with equal points, reflecting competitive balance. While league position alone is not decisive, the proximity in standings and early season form suggest both sides are motivated to secure points, likely encouraging attacking play to break deadlocks.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Heart Of Midlothian Over 2.5
50%ST Johnstone Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a historical trend toward goal-rich matches. This trend, combined with recent form and attacking statistics, points to a fixture with a high tempo and multiple scoring opportunities, favoring over 2.5 goals outcomes.

Related football research

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