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Serie A | Sun 20 Sep, 15:00

Gremio v Palmeiras Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras host Gremio at Allianz Parque with a strong home record and top-table momentum, having won six consecutive home matches and scoring 17 goals in eight league games. Gremio arrive winless in their last six away fixtures, struggling to score and facing a tough defensive challenge. Palmeiras' attacking threat is led by creative midfielder Andreas Pereira and forwards José López and Vitor Roque, while Gremio rely on wide play and striker Carlos Vinícius to break down opponents. This match could be pivotal in shaping the next phase of both teams' campaigns, with Palmeiras aiming to extend their control and Gremio seeking to reverse their away woes.

BT4Y best bet

Palmeiras to Win

  • Palmeiras have won 10 of 11 home matches this year, showing strong control at Allianz Parque.
  • Palmeiras average over two goals per game, scoring 17 in eight league matches.
  • Gremio are winless in six away games, averaging just 0.75 goals per away match.
  • Palmeiras win significantly more aerial duels per game (14.3) than Gremio (9.6), impacting set-piece and crossing battles.
  • Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 7 assists, key to their attacking creativity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Palmeiras' home form and attacking efficiency underpin a strong 69.6% to win, supported by their league-best defensive record and consistent goal-scoring. Gremio's poor away form and limited scoring output further tilt the balance. The price offers positive value with an 11.7% edge over the implied . The model notes Palmeiras' aerial control and creative supply as key factors. No data limitations affect , making this a solid selection based on current form and tactical advantages.

home control10 wins in 11 home matches
Strong positive
Attacking output17 goals in 8 league games
Strong positive
Away strugglesGremio winless in 6 away matches
Positive
Aerial duelsPalmeiras 14.3 vs Gremio 9.6 per game
Positive
Creative supplyAndreas Pereira 7 assists
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Palmeiras' commanding home form and attacking firepower make them well placed to secure victory. Their ability to control the game and break down Gremio's defensive setup, combined with Gremio's ongoing away difficulties, supports a confident win prediction for the home side.

Main risk

Risk Factor: Gremio's Carlos Vinicius has six goals and could potentially snatch a goal on the break, which would immediately void a clean-sheet scoreline.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Palmeiras

“Palmeiras' blend of creative midfield play and aerial superiority at Allianz Parque creates a tactical edge that Gremio's struggling away side is unlikely to overcome.”

Key Data Signals

Palmeiras to Win evidence

Palmeiras have won 10 of 11 home matches this year, showing strong control at Allianz Parque.

Palmeiras average over two goals per game, scoring 17 in eight league matches.

Gremio are winless in six away games, averaging just 0.75 goals per away match.

Palmeiras win significantly more aerial duels per game (14.3) than Gremio (9.6), impacting set-piece and crossing battles.

What To Watch In The Data

Palmeiras to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
  • Palmeiras' matches tend to feature controlled tempo with efficient goal-scoring, while Gremio's away games often see fewer goals.
  • This suggests a match likely to stay around the 2-3 goal range, aligning with the over 1.5 goals but cautious on higher totals.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Gremio3.4
Avg corners for
Palmeiras6.75
Gremio9.2
Avg total corners
Palmeiras11.5
Gremio3
Avg yellow cards
Palmeiras3
Gremio12.6
Avg shots
Palmeiras16.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
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Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Palmeiras average nearly double the corners of Gremio at home, reflecting their territorial control and sustained pressure. Both teams maintain moderate card averages, with Gremio's defensive fouling slightly higher, indicating a physical contest. Palmeiras' higher shot volume and shots on target underline their attacking intent and control of the match tempo.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gremio1.2
Avg goals scored
Palmeiras1.8
Gremio1.6
Avg goals conceded
Palmeiras1
Gremio60%
BTTS rate
Palmeiras60%
Gremio60%
Over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams to score is less likely given Gremio's poor away scoring record and Palmeiras' strong defensive form. The under 3.5 goals route is supported by Palmeiras' controlled attacking style and Gremio's compact defensive approach, suggesting a match with limited goal-scoring opportunities for the visitors.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.8
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Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The market price for Palmeiras to win reflects a positive value opportunity, with the model estimating a 69.6% chance versus an implied 57.9% chance from the . This 11.7% highlights Palmeiras as a well placed, supported by their dominant home form and Gremio's weak away record, making the price attractive for backing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gremio

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
16 Sep 2026A Botafogo2-3
12 Sep 2026H Vasco DA Gama1-2
08 Sep 2026A Vitoria0-1
30 Aug 2026H Chapecoense-sc3-1
23 Aug 2026A RB Bragantino0-1

Palmeiras

WDDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
12 Sep 2026H Sao Paulo2-0
06 Sep 2026A Botafogo0-0
30 Aug 2026A Mirassol1-1
23 Aug 2026H Vasco DA Gama4-1
15 Aug 2026A Fluminense2-3
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Palmeiras have collected 8 points in recent matches, showcasing consistent winning form and goal-scoring ability. Gremio's recent form is weaker, with only 3 points and a struggle to score, especially away from home. This contrast in momentum favors Palmeiras to maintain their winning streak and control the match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Gremio wins
1Draws
7Palmeiras wins
03 Apr 2026Palmeiras v Gremio2-1
26 Nov 2025Gremio v Palmeiras3-2
27 Jul 2025Palmeiras v Gremio1-0
09 Nov 2024Palmeiras v Gremio1-0
04 Jul 2024Gremio v Palmeiras2-2
22 Sep 2023Gremio v Palmeiras1-0
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The ten previous encounters between Palmeiras and Gremio show a moderate goal average of 2.8 per game, with Palmeiras generally dominating at home. While past results support Palmeiras' winning chances, the sample also reflects competitive matches, suggesting Gremio can pose challenges but are unlikely to overturn Palmeiras' home superiority.
Season team stats

Serie A

Gremio27
Played
Palmeiras27
Gremio1.1
Avg goals for
Palmeiras1.7
Gremio1.4
Avg goals against
Palmeiras0.8
Gremio5
Clean sheets
Palmeiras11
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Palmeiras lead the league with the best defensive record and a potent attack averaging over two goals per game. Gremio's season stats reveal a mid-table position with defensive vulnerabilities and a notably lower scoring rate on the road, reinforcing Palmeiras' advantage in both attack and defense.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Palmeiras5627168326
16Gremio28277713-8
Palmeiras sit second in the league with 56 points, three clear at the summit, reflecting their strong campaign and home control. Gremio are 16th with 28 points, indicating a struggle for consistency and form, especially away from home, adding pressure on them to improve results in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gremio Over 2.5
40%Palmeiras Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Palmeiras' matches tend to feature controlled tempo with efficient goal-scoring, while Gremio's away games often see fewer goals. This suggests a match likely to stay around the 2-3 goal range, aligning with the over 1.5 goals but cautious on higher totals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Gremio v Palmeiras prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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