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Atletico-MG crestAtletico-MG
v
Chapecoense-sc crestChapecoense-sc

Serie A | Sat 19 Sep, 20:00

Atletico-MG v Chapecoense-sc Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico-MG hosts Chapecoense-sc in a Serie A clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape expectations. Atletico-MG, ranked 7th, have a solid home record with a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Chapecoense-sc, struggling at 20th, have conceded heavily and seen 80% of their games go over 2.5 goals. Both teams average 1.6 goals scored per match, highlighting offensive capabilities. Chapecoense-sc's defensive frailties and Atletico-MG's attacking depth suggest an open game with multiple scoring opportunities, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc both average 1.6 goals scored per game this season.
  • Chapecoense-sc's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 80% of the time, Atletico-MG 60%.
  • Recent form shows Atletico-MG concedes 0.8 goals per game, Chapecoense-sc concedes 1.8.
  • Both teams generate high shot volumes: Atletico-MG 12.6 shots, Chapecoense-sc 15.4 per game.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 over the last 10 meetings.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong pick with a 63.3% chance, supported by both teams' offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities. Chapecoense-sc's high concession rate and frequent high-scoring matches combine with Atletico-MG's attacking efficiency and shot volume to create a favorable environment for multiple goals. The at 1.73 offer a positive of 5.5%, making this a compelling selection without significant price sensitivity.

Model Chance63.3%
Strong positive
Implied Chance57.8%
Positive
Value Edge5.5%
Positive
Recent Goalscoring FormBoth teams average 1.6 goals scored per match
Strong positive
Defensive WeaknessChapecoense-sc concedes 1.8 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Atletico-MG's attacking midfielders and Chapecoense-sc's forwards pushing for goals. Atletico-MG's home form and Chapecoense-sc's defensive struggles suggest multiple scoring opportunities, making Over 2.5 Goals a tactically and statistically sound choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“Given Chapecoense-sc's defensive lapses and Atletico-MG's attacking depth, this fixture is primed for goals. The high shot volumes and recent scoring trends reinforce the likelihood of a lively, goal-rich match.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc both average 1.6 goals scored per game this season.

Chapecoense-sc's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 80% of the time, Atletico-MG 60%.

Recent form shows Atletico-MG concedes 0.8 goals per game, Chapecoense-sc concedes 1.8.

Both teams generate high shot volumes: Atletico-MG 12.6 shots, Chapecoense-sc 15.4 per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a historical trend toward open games.
  • Recent matches for both teams show high Over 2.5 rates—60% for Atletico-MG and 80% for Chapecoense-sc—over their last fixtures.
  • This trend suggests a fast tempo and defensive gaps that facilitate multiple scoring opportunities in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atletico-MG1.6
Avg goals scored
Chapecoense-sc1.6
Atletico-MG0.8
Avg goals conceded
Chapecoense-sc1.8
Atletico-MG40%
BTTS rate
Chapecoense-sc80%
Atletico-MG60%
Over 2.5 goals
Chapecoense-sc80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 58% · edge +5.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 81%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams average 1.6 goals scored per game, with Chapecoense-sc conceding 1.8 goals per match, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Chapecoense-sc's 80% Over 2.5 rate and Atletico-MG's 60% rate indicate a strong trend toward high-scoring games. The head-to-head average of 2.7 goals over 10 matches further supports the expectation of multiple goals and potential BTTS scenarios.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 58% · edge +5.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.15
Check odds @ 4.15
Chapecoense-sc to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
8
Check odds @ 8
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Atletico-MG to WinBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.73, reflecting a slightly conservative bookmaker view compared to the model's 63.3% chance. This positive suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals, supported by both teams' offensive tendencies and defensive records. The price is attractive for standard stakes without requiring caution.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Atletico-MG4.8
Avg corners for
Chapecoense-sc5
Atletico-MG11.8
Avg total corners
Chapecoense-sc8.75
Atletico-MG2
Avg yellow cards
Chapecoense-sc3.5
Atletico-MG12.6
Avg shots
Chapecoense-sc16.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +13.9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Shot volumes are high for both teams, with Chapecoense-sc averaging 15.4 shots and Atletico-MG 12.6 per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure. Corner counts are balanced around 4.7 per match, suggesting moderate territorial battles. Card averages show Chapecoense-sc with 3 yellows per game, reflecting a physical approach that could disrupt rhythm but also lead to set-piece chances, supporting attacking opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atletico-MG

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
12 Sep 2026H Fluminense3-1
05 Sep 2026A Sao Paulo0-2
29 Aug 2026H Vitoria2-1
22 Aug 2026A Internacional0-0
16 Aug 2026H Gremio3-0

Chapecoense-sc

LWLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
12 Sep 2026H Internacional1-2
06 Sep 2026A Corinthians2-1
30 Aug 2026A Gremio1-3
23 Aug 2026H Sao Paulo1-0
16 Aug 2026H Bahia3-3
Best odds for this sectionChapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.15
Check odds @ 4.15
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Chapecoense-sc to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
8
Check odds @ 8
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Atletico-MG to WinBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Recent form shows Atletico-MG scoring 1.6 goals per game and conceding 0.8, indicating a relatively balanced but attack-minded approach. Chapecoense-sc scores similarly but concedes 1.8 goals per match, reflecting defensive frailty. Both teams have high Over 2.5 rates recently, with Chapecoense-sc at 80%, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring game based on current performance levels.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Atletico-MG wins
5Draws
3Chapecoense-sc wins
02 Apr 2026Chapecoense-sc v Atletico-MG0-4
06 Oct 2021Chapecoense-sc v Atletico-MG2-2
22 Jun 2021Atletico-MG v Chapecoense-sc1-1
30 Oct 2019Atletico-MG v Chapecoense-SC0-2
14 Jul 2019Chapecoense-SC v Atletico-MG1-2
06 Oct 2018Chapecoense-sc v Atletico-MG1-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 58% · edge +5.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Chapecoense-sc to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
8
Check odds @ 8
Atletico-MG to WinBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.7 goals per game, supporting the expectation of a high-scoring fixture. While not overwhelmingly decisive, this historical data aligns with current attacking and defensive trends, providing a meaningful background that complements the tactical and form-based analysis for Over 2.5 Goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Atletico-MG26
Played
Chapecoense-sc26
Atletico-MG1.3
Avg goals for
Chapecoense-sc1.1
Atletico-MG1.2
Avg goals against
Chapecoense-sc2
Atletico-MG6
Clean sheets
Chapecoense-sc2
Best odds for this sectionChapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.15
Check odds @ 4.15
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
8
Check odds @ 8
Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Atletico-MG to WinBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Season-long data reveals both teams maintain an aggressive attacking style, averaging 1.6 goals scored per match. Chapecoense-sc's defensive record is weaker, conceding 1.8 goals per game compared to Atletico-MG's 0.8, which supports the expectation of multiple goals. The consistent Over 2.5 rates for both teams underline a season trend favoring open, goal-rich matches.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Atletico-MG392611694
20Chapecoense-sc17263815-24
Atletico-MG sits comfortably in 7th place with 39 points, reflecting solid form and home advantage. Chapecoense-sc struggles in 20th with 17 points, often conceding heavily. While standings provide background, the key factor is Chapecoense-sc's defensive issues and Atletico-MG's attacking impetus, which together suggest a fixture prone to goals despite the league positions.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Atletico-MG Over 2.5
80%Chapecoense-sc Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a historical trend toward open games. Recent matches for both teams show high Over 2.5 rates—60% for Atletico-MG and 80% for Chapecoense-sc—over their last fixtures. This trend suggests a fast tempo and defensive gaps that facilitate multiple scoring opportunities in this encounter.

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