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Mirassol crestMirassol
v
Botafogo crestBotafogo

Serie A | Sat 19 Sep, 21:00

Mirassol v Botafogo Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mirassol and Botafogo meet in a Serie A clash where both sides have shown moderate attacking intent but differing defensive solidity. Mirassol ranks 15th with 29 points, while Botafogo sits 11th with 35 points, indicating a mid-table battle with room for tactical adjustments. Both teams have averaged a similar number of goals scored per game (1.2), but Botafogo concedes more (1.8) compared to Mirassol's 1.4, suggesting potential for open play. The fixture's tempo and attacking patterns hint at sustained pressure and opportunities for set pieces, making corners a key factor to monitor.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Mirassol averages 6.2 corners per game, Botafogo 9.0, combining for a high corner count.
  • Both teams have shown attacking intent with Mirassol taking 14 shots and Botafogo 23 shots on average per match.
  • Recent form shows Mirassol concedes fewer goals than Botafogo, possibly leading to more defensive clearances and corners.
  • The last three head-to-head matches averaged 3.67 goals, indicating open play that often results in set-piece opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 69% chance against an implied market chance of 55.6%, reflecting a 13.4% . Both teams' attacking styles and shot volumes contribute to frequent corner situations, especially with Botafogo's higher average corners (9.0) and Mirassol's solid pressure (6.2). The recent matches and season stats support a game with sustained wide play and defensive clearances, increasing corner likelihood. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance69%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance55.6%
Positive
Value Edge13.4%
Strong positive
Shot VolumeMirassol 14, Botafogo 23 per game
Positive
Corner AveragesMirassol 6.2, Botafogo 9.0 per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with active wing play and defensive pressure leading to numerous corners. Botafogo's higher corner average combined with Mirassol's persistent attacking efforts suggests a lively contest with frequent set-piece situations. The data supports a strong likelihood of surpassing 9.5 corners, making this an appealing angle for bettors.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“The corner count is a telling indicator of territorial control and attacking width in this fixture. Botafogo's aggressive wing play and Mirassol's resilience in defense should combine to push the corner tally above nine and a half.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Mirassol averages 6.2 corners per game, Botafogo 9.0, combining for a high corner count.

Both teams have shown attacking intent with Mirassol taking 14 shots and Botafogo 23 shots on average per match.

Recent form shows Mirassol concedes fewer goals than Botafogo, possibly leading to more defensive clearances and corners.

The last three head-to-head matches averaged 3.67 goals, indicating open play that often results in set-piece opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • The last three head-to-head matches averaged 3.67 goals, indicating open games with attacking intent.
  • This trend over recent meetings suggests a tempo conducive to wide attacks and set-piece situations, supporting the likelihood of exceeding 9.5 corners in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Mirassol6.2
Avg corners for
Botafogo6.5
Mirassol12.8
Avg total corners
Botafogo10.75
Mirassol3.2
Avg yellow cards
Botafogo2.25
Mirassol14
Avg shots
Botafogo19.25
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 56% · edge +12.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Mirassol averages 6.2 corners and 14 shots per game, while Botafogo averages 9 corners and 23 shots, reflecting sustained attacking pressure and wide play. The moderate card counts (Mirassol 3.2 yellows, Botafogo 2.5) suggest physical but not overly disruptive matches, allowing for continuous corner opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mirassol1.2
Avg goals scored
Botafogo1.2
Mirassol1.4
Avg goals conceded
Botafogo1.8
Mirassol80%
BTTS rate
Botafogo60%
Mirassol40%
Over 2.5 goals
Botafogo60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams average 1.2 goals per game, with Mirassol showing an 80% BTTS rate and Botafogo 60%. The attacking openness and goal frequency imply active wing play and transitions, which typically generate corners through crosses and defensive clearances.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Mirassol to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Mirassol Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively at 1.8 with a of 69%, indicating clear value. The 13.4% suggests the market underestimates the frequency of corners in this matchup, making it a favorable bet without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mirassol

DWLDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
13 Sep 2026H Vitoria2-2
06 Sep 2026A Coritiba2-1
02 Sep 2026A Flamengo0-2
30 Aug 2026H Palmeiras1-1
23 Aug 2026A Santos1-1

Botafogo

WDDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
16 Sep 2026H Gremio3-2
13 Sep 2026H RB Bragantino1-1
06 Sep 2026H Palmeiras0-0
30 Aug 2026A Flamengo0-3
25 Aug 2026H Atletico Paranaense2-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 77% vs implied 75% · edge +2.1 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Mirassol to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Mirassol Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form shows Mirassol earning 6 points with a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, while Botafogo has 5 points and a 60% over 2.5 rate. Both teams’ attacking momentum and defensive vulnerabilities support a match with frequent attacking sequences and set-piece chances, aligning with the Over 9.5 Corners pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Mirassol wins
2Draws
1Botafogo wins
01 Apr 2026Botafogo v Mirassol3-2
01 Nov 2025Mirassol v Botafogo0-0
17 Sep 2025Botafogo v Mirassol3-3
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Mirassol to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The three recent head-to-head matches show an average of 3.67 goals, reflecting open and attacking contests. While the sample is limited, these encounters suggest both teams engage in offensive play that often results in corners, lending moderate support to the Over 9.5 Corners selection.
Season team stats

Serie A

Mirassol27
Played
Botafogo27
Mirassol1.1
Avg goals for
Botafogo1.5
Mirassol1.6
Avg goals against
Botafogo1.6
Mirassol1
Clean sheets
Botafogo4
Best odds for this sectionMirassol to WinBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 47% · edge +2.7 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Mirassol Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Botafogo to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Botafogo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Season-long data reveals Botafogo’s higher corner average (9.0) and Mirassol’s respectable 6.2 corners per game, reflecting consistent wide play and pressure. These stats underpin the expectation of a corner-rich game, as both teams generate and concede chances that lead to corners regularly.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Botafogo35279810-2
15Mirassol29277812-11
Mirassol’s 15th place and Botafogo’s 11th place in the Serie A table indicate mid-table teams with motivation to push for points. This competitive context encourages attacking efforts and territorial battles, which often translate into increased corner counts as teams seek to break deadlocks.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Mirassol Over 2.5
60%Botafogo Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
The last three head-to-head matches averaged 3.67 goals, indicating open games with attacking intent. This trend over recent meetings suggests a tempo conducive to wide attacks and set-piece situations, supporting the likelihood of exceeding 9.5 corners in this fixture.

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Fixture links

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