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FC Augsburg crestFC Augsburg
v
Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga | Sat 12 Sep, 14:30

FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen meet in a Bundesliga clash where attacking intent is clear from both sides. Augsburg currently top the table with 6 points and have shown a strong offensive output, scoring an average of 3.5 goals per game while conceding just 0.5. Leverkusen, sitting seventh, have also demonstrated attacking prowess with 3 goals per game but a slightly more porous defense conceding 1.5 goals on average. Both teams have recorded 100% Over 2.5 Goals rates recently, indicating a high likelihood of an open, goal-rich encounter. This fixture promises tactical openness and offensive ambition from both sides, setting the stage for a high-scoring game.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.
  • FC Augsburg averages 3.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per game.
  • Bayer Leverkusen averages 3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.
  • Both teams generate high shot volumes: Augsburg 20.5 and Leverkusen 21 shots per game.
  • Key players like A. Claude-Maurice and V. Boniface contribute significant shot and goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 58% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, above the implied 50% chance from current , indicating positive value. Both teams have consistently produced high-scoring matches recently, with Augsburg and Leverkusen each averaging over 3 goals per game and maintaining perfect Over 2.5 records. The attacking profiles are supported by high shot volumes and strong goal threat from key players such as A. Defensive vulnerabilities, especially from Leverkusen, further increase the likelihood of a goal-laden fixture. No data limitations affect in this prediction.

Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% for both teams
Strong positive
Average Goals Scored3.5 (Augsburg), 3 (Leverkusen)
Strong positive
Shots per Game20.5 (Augsburg), 21 (Leverkusen)
Positive
Key Player Goal ThreatHigh from Claude-Maurice and Boniface
Positive
Defensive Concession0.5 (Augsburg), 1.5 (Leverkusen)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking encounter as FC Augsburg’s strong offensive form meets Bayer Leverkusen’s potent attack. Augsburg’s league-leading goal scoring and Leverkusen’s willingness to commit players forward suggest multiple goal-scoring chances. The data supports a high-scoring game, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection based on both tactical intent and recent output.

Main risk

However, Leverkusen’s defensive statistics reveal persistent opportunities for opponents.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking styles

“This fixture features two teams with aggressive attacking styles and high shot volumes, making a goal-rich game very likely. Augsburg’s clinical finishing and Leverkusen’s offensive firepower create a perfect storm for Over 3.5 Goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.

FC Augsburg averages 3.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per game.

Bayer Leverkusen averages 3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.

Both teams generate high shot volumes: Augsburg 20.5 and Leverkusen 21 shots per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.8, slightly below the Over 3.5 threshold but consistent with a generally open fixture.
  • Recent matches show both teams favor attacking play, with a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in their latest outings, suggesting a high-tempo, goal-rich encounter is likely.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Augsburg3.5
Avg goals scored
Bayer Leverkusen3
FC Augsburg0.5
Avg goals conceded
Bayer Leverkusen1.5
FC Augsburg50%
BTTS rate
Bayer Leverkusen50%
FC Augsburg100%
Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 50% · edge +8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have demonstrated strong goal-scoring ability and a 50% BTTS rate, suggesting that while goals are frequent, at least one clean sheet is possible. The combination of high goals per game and moderate BTTS rates points to matches with multiple goals but occasional defensive shutouts, supporting Over 3.5 Goals as a viable route.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 78% vs implied 71% · edge +6.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
FC Augsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
FC Augsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced with an implied chance of 50%, while the model estimates a 58% probability, indicating positive value. This pricing reflects in a high-scoring game but leaves room for further improvement. The current price offers a good balance of risk and reward given the attacking profiles and recent trends of both teams.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Bundesliga analysisFC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

FC Augsburg7.5
Avg corners for
Bayer Leverkusen7
FC Augsburg13.5
Avg total corners
Bayer Leverkusen9.5
FC Augsburg1
Avg yellow cards
Bayer Leverkusen2
FC Augsburg20.5
Avg shots
Bayer Leverkusen21
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
High average shot counts (20.5 for Augsburg, 21 for Leverkusen) and corner averages (7.5 and 7 respectively) indicate sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. The moderate yellow card averages suggest disciplined play, allowing continuous offensive flow and shot creation, which supports a high-goal environment.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Augsburg

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
06 Sep 2026A Eintracht Frankfurt4-1
30 Aug 2026H FC Schalke 043-0

Bayer Leverkusen

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
05 Sep 2026H Union Berlin4-0
29 Aug 2026A SV Elversberg2-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
FC Augsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
FC Augsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form data shows both teams have perfect Over 2.5 Goals records, with Augsburg scoring 3.5 goals and conceding only 0.5 per game, while Leverkusen scores 3 and concedes 1.5. This form highlights offensive efficiency and some defensive vulnerability, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4FC Augsburg wins
0Draws
6Bayer Leverkusen wins
18 Apr 2026Bayer Leverkusen v FC Augsburg1-2
06 Dec 2025FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen2-0
26 Apr 2025Bayer Leverkusen v FC Augsburg2-0
14 Dec 2024FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen0-2
18 May 2024Bayer Leverkusen v FC Augsburg2-1
13 Jan 2024FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen0-1
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 78% vs implied 71% · edge +6.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
FC Augsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.8 goals per game, indicating moderately high scoring but slightly below the Over 3.5 benchmark. While historical meetings suggest competitive encounters, recent attacking form and tactical openness from both sides provide stronger signals for a higher goal count in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Bundesliga

FC Augsburg2
Played
Bayer Leverkusen2
FC Augsburg3.5
Avg goals for
Bayer Leverkusen3
FC Augsburg0.5
Avg goals against
Bayer Leverkusen1.5
FC Augsburg1
Clean sheets
Bayer Leverkusen1
Best odds for this sectionFC Augsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
FC Augsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season-long statistics underline Augsburg’s potent attack and solid defense, averaging 3.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Leverkusen’s attack remains strong with 3 goals per game but a more porous defense conceding 1.5. These profiles suggest a game with multiple goals, consistent with Over 3.5 Goals expectations.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1FC Augsburg622006
8Bayer Leverkusen321013
Augsburg leads the Bundesliga standings with 6 points, reflecting strong early-season form, while Leverkusen sits seventh with 3 points. The table positions highlight Augsburg’s and attacking momentum, which could pressure Leverkusen into an open game, increasing goal-scoring opportunities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%FC Augsburg Over 2.5
100%Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.8, slightly below the Over 3.5 threshold but consistent with a generally open fixture. Recent matches show both teams favor attacking play, with a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in their latest outings, suggesting a high-tempo, goal-rich encounter is likely.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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