Borussia Dortmund

SC Paderborn 07

Bundesliga | Sat 12 Sep, 14:30

Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07 Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Borussia Dortmund face SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga on Sat 12 Sep, 14:30. Borussia Dortmund come in with 6 recent points and 2.5 goals per match, while SC Paderborn 07 have 1 points and 0 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

BTTS No

At 2.05, BTTS No implies roughly 49%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 62%.
Borussia Dortmund show a 50% BTTS rate and SC Paderborn 07 show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Borussia Dortmund average 2.5 goals scored and SC Paderborn 07 average 0, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 62% for BTTS No sits against roughly 49% implied by the current price. Borussia Dortmund show a 50% BTTS rate and SC Paderborn 07 show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Model chance vs price62% model chance against roughly 49% implied

Positive

Borussia Dortmund show a 50% BTTS rate and SC Paderborn.Visible data support

Positive

Borussia Dortmund average 2.5 goals scored and SC Paderborn 07.Visible data support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: BTTS No is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Borussia Dortmund show a 50% BTTS rate and SC Paderborn 07 show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Key Data Signals

BTTS No evidence

Borussia Dortmund show a 50% BTTS rate and SC Paderborn 07 show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Borussia Dortmund average 2.5 goals scored and SC Paderborn 07 average 0, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS No notes

Compare both teams on scoring rate and clean-sheet record before trusting BTTS No.
Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Borussia Dortmund3

Avg corners for

SC Paderborn 072

Borussia Dortmund4

Avg total corners

SC Paderborn 0713

Borussia Dortmund2

Avg yellow cards

SC Paderborn 072

Borussia Dortmund20

Avg shots

SC Paderborn 0710

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 55% · edge +9.4 pts

1.83

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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 49%

1.83

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Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

more Bundesliga analysis corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Borussia Dortmund2.5

Avg goals scored

SC Paderborn 070

Borussia Dortmund1

Avg goals conceded

SC Paderborn 070.5

Borussia Dortmund50%

BTTS rate

SC Paderborn 070%

Borussia Dortmund50%

Over 2.5 goals

SC Paderborn 070%

Market aligned with main pickBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 49% · edge +13.5 pts

2.05

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%

3.2

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 42%

1.7

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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%

1.1

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%

1.36

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Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 23%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 55% · edge +9.4 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

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SC Paderborn 07 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 33%

5.5

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Borussia Dortmund to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%

1.25

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SC Paderborn 07 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 10

Borussia Dortmund Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%

1.15

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DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%

6.5

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 42%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Borussia Dortmund

Last 52W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 0D 0L

05 Sep 2026A 1899 Hoffenheim3-2

29 Aug 2026H Hamburger SV2-0

SC Paderborn 07

Last 50W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 1D 1L

05 Sep 2026H SC Freiburg0-1

29 Aug 2026A FSV Mainz 050-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts

3.75

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SC Paderborn 07 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 33%

5.5

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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%

1.06

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Borussia Dortmund to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

SC Paderborn 07 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 10

Borussia Dortmund Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%

1.15

Check odds @ 1.15

DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%

6.5

Check odds @ 6.5

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Borussia Dortmund wins

3Draws

0SC Paderborn 07 wins

02 Feb 2021Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 073-2

28 Aug 2020Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 071-1

31 May 2020SC Paderborn 07 v Borussia Dortmund1-6

22 Nov 2019Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 073-3

28 Oct 2015Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 077-1

18 Apr 2015Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 073-0

Best odds for this sectionBorussia Dortmund to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

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SC Paderborn 07 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 10

DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%

6.5

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 42%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

The head-to-head sample gives context for Borussia Dortmund to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Season team stats

Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund2

Played

SC Paderborn 072

Borussia Dortmund2.5

Avg goals for

SC Paderborn 070

Borussia Dortmund1

Avg goals against

SC Paderborn 070.5

Borussia Dortmund1

Clean sheets

SC Paderborn 071

Best odds for this sectionSC Paderborn 07 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts

5.5

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Borussia Dortmund to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%

1.25

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SC Paderborn 07 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 10

Borussia Dortmund Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%

1.15

Check odds @ 1.15

Season data supports SC Paderborn 07 Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
3	Borussia Dortmund	6	2	2	0	0	3
12	SC Paderborn 07	1	2	0	1	1	-1

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5

0%SC Paderborn 07 Over 2.5

5H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Borussia Dortmund sit at 50% and SC Paderborn 07 sit at 0% with the H2H average at 5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07 Stats

Match Report

BTTS No

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Borussia Dortmund

SC Paderborn 07

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Football Stats Hub

Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07 Stats

Match Report

BTTS No

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Borussia Dortmund

SC Paderborn 07

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Prediction context

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