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Deportes Tolima crestDeportes Tolima
v
Independiente del Valle crestIndependiente del Valle

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Wed 19 Aug, 01:30

Deportes Tolima v Independiente del Valle Stats

Data last updated: Wed 16 Sep 2026, 23:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Deportes Tolima face Independiente del Valle in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wed 19 Aug, 01:30. The hosts average 2.3 goals per game and have scored eight in three home group matches, while Tolima have scored just once in three away Libertadores fixtures in 2026.

BT4Y best bet

Independiente del Valle to win

  • At 1/2, Independiente del Valle to win implies roughly 67%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 68%.
  • Clean sheets and defensive solidity also favour Independiente.
  • Independiente del Valle have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for Deportes Tolima.
  • Deportes Tolima have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Independiente del Valle to win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 68% for Independiente del Valle to win sits against roughly 67% implied by the current price. Independiente del Valle have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for Deportes Tolima. Clean sheets and defensive solidity also favour Independiente.

Model chance vs price68% model chance against roughly 67% implied
Neutral
Independiente del Valle have the stronger recent points return, taking.Visible data support
Positive
Deportes Tolima have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Clean sheets and defensive solidity also favour Independiente.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Independiente del Valle Win is the preferred angle because clean sheets and defensive solidity also favour Independiente. Independiente del Valle have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for Deportes Tolima. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Independiente del Valle to win evidence

Clean sheets and defensive solidity also favour Independiente.

Independiente del Valle have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for Deportes Tolima.

Deportes Tolima have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Independiente del Valle Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Independiente del Valle to win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Deportes Tolima5
    Avg corners for
    Independiente del Valle7.5
    Deportes Tolima10
    Avg total corners
    Independiente del Valle8.5
    Deportes Tolima2.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Independiente del Valle1.5
    Deportes Tolima11
    Avg shots
    Independiente del Valle19.5
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6.3 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    full betting preview for Deportes Tolima v Independiente del Vallecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Deportes Tolima1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Independiente del Valle2.2
    Deportes Tolima1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Independiente del Valle1.2
    Deportes Tolima20%
    BTTS rate
    Independiente del Valle60%
    Deportes Tolima80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Independiente del Valle60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 75% vs implied 67% · edge +8.1 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
    5.5
    Check odds @ 5.5
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
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    Independiente del Valle Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Independiente del Valle to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Deportes Tolima

    DLWWL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    27 May 2026A Universitario0-0
    19 May 2026A Coquimbo Unido0-3
    07 May 2026H Club Nacional3-0
    29 Apr 2026H Coquimbo Unido3-0
    14 Apr 2026A Club Nacional1-3

    Independiente del Valle

    WWLWW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 1L
    27 May 2026H Rosario Central1-0
    20 May 2026H Libertad Asuncion4-1
    06 May 2026A UCV0-2
    28 Apr 2026A Libertad Asuncion3-2
    16 Apr 2026H UCV3-1
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
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    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Independiente del Valle Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Deportes Tolima wins
    1Draws
    0Independiente del Valle wins
    05 May 2022Deportes Tolima v Independiente del Valle1-0
    14 Apr 2022Independiente del Valle v Deportes Tolima2-2
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Independiente del Valle to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Libertadores

    Deportes Tolima12
    Played
    Independiente del Valle9
    Deportes Tolima1
    Avg goals for
    Independiente del Valle1.7
    Deportes Tolima1
    Avg goals against
    Independiente del Valle1
    Deportes Tolima6
    Clean sheets
    Independiente del Valle3
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente del Valle to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Independiente del Valle Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Season data supports Independiente del Valle to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Deportes Tolima862221
    1Independiente del Valle1364115
    CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Deportes Tolima Over 2.5
    60%Independiente del Valle Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Deportes Tolima sit at 80% and Independiente del Valle sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Deportes Tolima v Independiente del Valle prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre