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Chico crestChico
v
Independiente Medellin crestIndependiente Medellin

Primera A | Sun 13 Sep, 00:10

Chico v Independiente Medellin Stats

Data last updated: Sun 13 Sep 2026, 14:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Independiente Medellin arrives in strong form, ranked third in the Primera A with 15 points, contrasting with Chico's 17th place and 5 points. Medellin's attack, averaging 1.8 goals per game, is notably more potent than Chico's 0.8, while their defense concedes less than a goal per match. This fixture pits Medellin's efficient offense and solid defense against Chico's struggles, setting the stage for a tactical battle where Medellin's consistency and quality on both ends of the pitch could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Independiente Medellin to Win

  • Independiente Medellin holds a 70% to win, with a positive of 15.4%.
  • Medellin averages 1.8 goals per game and concedes 0.8, showing strong attack and defense balance.
  • Chico's recent form is weak, with only 5 points and 0.8 goals scored per game.
  • Medellin's shot volume (15.5) and shots on target (6) nearly double Chico's (7.4 shots, 2.2 SOT).

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Independiente Medellin due to their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and stronger defensive record compared to Chico. Medellin's ability to create more shots and shots on target, combined with Chico's low scoring and points tally, underpins the in an away win. The data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing the reliability of this prediction without price warnings or reduced stake cautions.

Model Chance70%
Strong positive
Value Edge15.4%
Strong positive
Recent FormMedellin 12 points vs Chico 5
Strong positive
Goals For/AgainstMedellin 1.8/0.8 vs Chico 0.8/1
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Independiente Medellin's superior form and attacking efficiency make them the clear choice for victory. Their ability to generate significantly more shots and maintain a tighter defense than Chico suggests they will control the game and capitalize on scoring opportunities, making an away win the most logical outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Independiente Medellin's consistent offensive pressure and defensive solidity provide a strong foundation for an away win, especially against a struggling Chico side with limited attacking threat.”

Key Data Signals

Independiente Medellin to Win evidence

Independiente Medellin holds a 70% to win, with a positive of 15.4%.

Medellin averages 1.8 goals per game and concedes 0.8, showing strong attack and defense balance.

Chico's recent form is weak, with only 5 points and 0.8 goals scored per game.

Medellin's shot volume (15.5) and shots on target (6) nearly double Chico's (7.4 shots, 2.2 SOT).

What To Watch In The Data

Independiente Medellin to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, with a trend towards matches featuring over 2.5 goals in 60% of Medellin's recent games.
  • This suggests a tempo favoring goal opportunities, especially from Medellin's side, aligning with their offensive statistics and supporting expectations of a lively match.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Chico4
Avg corners for
Independiente Medellin2.75
Chico9.4
Avg total corners
Independiente Medellin7
Chico2.2
Avg yellow cards
Independiente Medellin3.25
Chico7.4
Avg shots
Independiente Medellin14.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 55% · edge -4.6 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Medellin averages 3 corners per game compared to Chico's 4, but dominates in shots (15.5 vs 7.4) and shots on target (6 vs 2.2), reflecting territorial control and offensive pressure. Chico's lower card count (2.2 yellows) versus Medellin's higher (4) suggests Medellin plays a more aggressive style, potentially influencing match tempo and discipline.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Chico0.8
Avg goals scored
Independiente Medellin1.8
Chico1
Avg goals conceded
Independiente Medellin0.8
Chico20%
BTTS rate
Independiente Medellin40%
Chico20%
Over 2.5 goals
Independiente Medellin60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +1.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Medellin's matches have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals and 40% BTTS, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals. Chico's low scoring and BTTS rates (20%) suggest they are less likely to contribute offensively, pointing to Medellin as the main source of goals in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
The for Independiente Medellin to win reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model assigning a 70% chance versus an implied market chance of 54.6%. This discrepancy highlights the market underestimating Medellin's form and quality, making the selection a price-sensitive value bet worth considering.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Chico

WDDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
05 Sep 2026H Once Caldas2-0
30 Aug 2026A Águilas Doradas2-2
26 Aug 2026H Fortaleza FC0-0
21 Aug 2026A Jaguares0-1
08 Aug 2026A Santa Fe0-2

Independiente Medellin

WWLWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 0D 2L
04 Sep 2026A Deportivo Pereira3-0
30 Aug 2026H Llaneros2-1
23 Aug 2026H Cucuta0-1
05 Aug 2026A Deportes Tolima3-2
02 Aug 2026H Deportivo Cali1-0
Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Independiente Medellin's recent form is strong, accumulating 12 points with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Chico's form is poor, with only 5 points and 0.8 goals scored, indicating struggles in both attack and defense. This contrast in momentum supports Medellin's likelihood to secure a win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Chico wins
2Draws
5Independiente Medellin wins
23 Apr 2026Independiente Medellin v Chico2-0
20 Jul 2025Chico v Independiente Medellin2-0
02 Feb 2025Independiente Medellin v Chico3-0
26 Oct 2024Independiente Medellin v Chico3-0
23 Oct 2024Chico v Independiente Medellin1-4
01 Aug 2024Independiente Medellin v Chico1-0
Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
The ten previous encounters between these teams average 2.2 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While historical results provide some context, recent form and current squad quality offer stronger signals for this fixture, with Medellin's control in form and stats outweighing past meetings.
Season team stats

Primera A

Chico26
Played
Independiente Medellin26
Chico0.8
Avg goals for
Independiente Medellin1.5
Chico1.7
Avg goals against
Independiente Medellin1.2
Chico6
Clean sheets
Independiente Medellin7
Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over the season, Independiente Medellin demonstrates a balanced profile with a solid attack scoring 1.8 goals per game and a disciplined defense conceding less than one goal. Chico's season stats reveal offensive struggles and a leaky defense, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1 goal per game, underscoring the challenge they face against Medellin's quality.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Independiente Medellin26197572
18Chico17195212-17
3Independiente Medellin1575025
15Chico87223-7
Medellin's third-place standing with 15 points reflects consistent performance and competitiveness in the league, while Chico's 17th place and 5 points highlight their difficulties. Though standings alone don't decide the match, the gap indicates Medellin's superior form and squad strength.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Chico Over 2.5
60%Independiente Medellin Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, with a trend towards matches featuring over 2.5 goals in 60% of Medellin's recent games. This suggests a tempo favoring goal opportunities, especially from Medellin's side, aligning with their offensive statistics and supporting expectations of a lively match.

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