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Burnley crestBurnley
v
Derby crestDerby

Championship | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

Burnley v Derby Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burnley face Derby in Championship on Sat 19 Sep, 15:00. Burnley come in with 2 recent points and 1 goals per match, while Derby have 3 points and 0.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • At 1.67, Over 9.5 Corners implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • Derby lead the corner sample at 6.8 per match, with Burnley lower at 5.
  • Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: Burnley average 14.4 and Derby average 10.2.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Derby lead the corner sample at 6.8 per match, with Burnley lower at 5.

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Positive
Derby lead the corner sample at 6.8 per match.Visible data support
Positive
Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 9.5 Corners is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Derby lead the corner sample at 6.8 per match, with Burnley lower at 5. Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Derby lead the corner sample at 6.8 per match, with Burnley lower at 5.

Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: Burnley average 14.4 and Derby average 10.2.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Use corner averages alongside shot pressure to separate territory from real threat.
  • Check whether wide attacks are producing repeat deliveries rather than harmless possession.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Burnley5
Avg corners for
Derby6.8
Burnley8.8
Avg total corners
Derby12.6
Burnley2.4
Avg yellow cards
Derby1.6
Burnley14.4
Avg shots
Derby10.2
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.6 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burnley1
Avg goals scored
Derby0.6
Burnley2.2
Avg goals conceded
Derby1.8
Burnley100%
BTTS rate
Derby20%
Burnley60%
Over 2.5 goals
Derby60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2
Check odds @ 2
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Derby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Derby to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Burnley Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burnley

LDLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 4L
12 Sep 2026A Swansea1-3
08 Sep 2026A Wrexham1-1
05 Sep 2026H Bristol City1-2
02 Sep 2026H Middlesbrough1-1
29 Aug 2026A Norwich1-4

Derby

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 5L
12 Sep 2026H Birmingham1-2
09 Sep 2026H West Brom0-1
05 Sep 2026A West Ham0-3
01 Sep 2026A Portsmouth2-0
29 Aug 2026H Swansea0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Derby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Derby to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Burnley Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Burnley to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Burnley wins
4Draws
0Derby wins
26 Aug 2025Burnley v Derby2-1
08 Apr 2025Derby v Burnley0-0
10 Dec 2024Burnley v Derby0-0
25 Jan 2016Burnley v Derby4-1
21 Sep 2015Derby v Burnley0-0
01 Mar 2014Burnley v Derby2-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Derby to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Burnley to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Championship

Burnley7
Played
Derby7
Burnley1.1
Avg goals for
Derby0.9
Burnley2.3
Avg goals against
Derby1.9
Burnley0
Clean sheets
Derby1
Best odds for this sectionDerby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Load more odds for this section
Derby to WinBetUK guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Burnley Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Burnley to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season data supports Derby Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
22Derby47115-7
24Burnley37034-8
Burnley sit in position 24, while Derby sit in position 22, so table pressure belongs in the Over 9.5 Corners assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Burnley Over 2.5
60%Derby Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Burnley sit at 60% and Derby sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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