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Cagliari crestCagliari
v
Juventus crestJuventus

Serie A | Sun 11 Oct, 19:45

Cagliari v Juventus Stats

Data last updated: Tue 03 Nov 2026, 03:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cagliari face Juventus in Serie A on Sun 11 Oct, 19:45. Fabio Pisacane's side sit fourth with 12 points, two ahead of seventh-placed Juventus, having won four of their opening five league matches. A 1-1 draw fits both teams' strong defences and scoring patterns, with Maldini's form and Juventus' attack balanced by Cagliari's resilience.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Cagliari Asian Handicap +1

  • At 41/50, Cagliari Asian Handicap +1 implies roughly 55%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 49%.
  • Two goals conceded: The Rossoblu boast Serie A's best defensive record after five rounds.
  • Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Juventus.
  • Cagliari have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Cagliari Asian Handicap +1 angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Cagliari sit 12 in the table, while Juventus sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Cagliari Asian Handicap +1 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 55% while the model sits nearer 49% (-6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 9.5 Corners shows a +15 pts edge at 2.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 49% for Cagliari Asian Handicap +1 sits against roughly 55% implied by the current price. Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Juventus. Two goals conceded: The Rossoblu boast Serie A's best defensive record after five rounds.

Model chance vs price49% model chance against roughly 55% implied
Negative
Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points.Visible data support
Positive
Cagliari have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Two goals conceded: The Rossoblu boast Serie A's best.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Cagliari Win is the preferred angle because two goals conceded: The Rossoblu boast Serie A's best defensive record after five rounds. Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Juventus. Risk Factor: Strong defences on both sides could prevent scoring, risking the exact 1-1 scoreline.

Main risk

Risk Factor: Strong defences on both sides could prevent scoring, risking the exact 1-1 scoreline.

Key Data Signals

Cagliari Asian Handicap +1 evidence

Two goals conceded: The Rossoblu boast Serie A's best defensive record after five rounds.

Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 10 for Juventus.

Cagliari have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Cagliari Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Cagliari sit 12 in the table, while Juventus sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Cagliari Asian Handicap +1 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Cagliari1
    Avg goals scored
    Juventus1.6
    Cagliari0.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Juventus0.8
    Cagliari20%
    BTTS rate
    Juventus40%
    Cagliari20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Juventus20%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 56% · edge +10.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Serie A hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCagliari to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 30% vs implied 15% · edge +15 pts
    6.5
    Check odds @ 6.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Cagliari Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Cagliari to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Cagliari

    WWWLW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 0D 1L
    19 Sep 2026A Udinese1-0
    12 Sep 2026A Atalanta2-1
    07 Sep 2026H Lecce1-0
    30 Aug 2026H Inter0-1
    22 Aug 2026A Parma1-0

    Juventus

    WLDWW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 1L
    20 Sep 2026H Atalanta2-0
    13 Sep 2026A Sassuolo2-3
    06 Sep 2026H AC Milan1-1
    29 Aug 2026H Parma2-0
    23 Aug 2026A Frosinone1-0
    Market aligned with main pickCagliari to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 30% vs implied 15% · edge +15 pts
    6.5
    Check odds @ 6.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 59%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Cagliari Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Cagliari Over 2.5
    20%Juventus Over 2.5
    2.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Cagliari sit at 20% and Juventus sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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