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Burnley crestBurnley
v
Charlton crestCharlton

Championship | Tue 13 Oct, 19:45

Burnley v Charlton Stats

Data last updated: Mon 12 Oct 2026, 10:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Burnley hosts Charlton in a Championship clash where Burnley aims to bounce back from a challenging start to the season. Burnley has struggled for consistency but shows signs of improvement with recent points gained, while Charlton sits mid-table with a more stable but less potent attack. The match presents tactical intrigue as Burnley looks to leverage home advantage and attacking players like Z. Flemming to break down Charlton's defense. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting an open contest with opportunities for Burnley to assert control and secure a vital win.

BT4Y match pick

Burnley to Win

  • Burnley has a 61.5% to win, reflecting in home advantage and attacking potential.
  • Burnley averages 13.6 shots per game with 4.4 on target, significantly higher than Charlton's 9 shots and 2.33 on target.
  • Charlton's recent form shows lower goal output and less offensive threat compared to Burnley.
  • Burnley ranks 22nd with 7 points, while Charlton is 12th with 13 points, indicating Burnley’s need for points to climb the table.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Burnley to win based on their superior attacking metrics, including higher shot volume and shot accuracy, combined with home advantage. Burnley's recent form shows a better goal-scoring rate and more frequent BTTS occurrences, indicating offensive capability. Although the price is slightly short, the football context supports Burnley's edge in creating chances and controlling play. The data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing in the model's assessment. Reduced stakes are advised due to the slight price sensitivity.

Model chance61.5% model chance vs 62.5% implied (-1 pts)
Strong positive
Shot volume and accuracyBurnley 13.6 shots, 4.4 SOT vs Charlton 9 shots, 2.33 SOT
Strong positive
Recent form goals per gameBurnley 1.6 vs Charlton 0.4
Positive
Price sensitivity61.5% model chance vs 62.5% implied (-1 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Burnley’s attacking superiority and home advantage make them the likely winners in this fixture. Their higher shot volume and recent scoring form provide a tactical edge, while Charlton’s limited offensive threat suggests Burnley can control the match tempo and secure the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking control and home advantage

“Burnley's ability to generate significantly more shots and maintain offensive pressure at home underpins their winning chances despite some defensive frailties.”

Key Data Signals

Burnley to Win evidence

Burnley has a 61.5% to win, reflecting in home advantage and attacking potential.

Burnley averages 13.6 shots per game with 4.4 on target, significantly higher than Charlton's 9 shots and 2.33 on target.

Charlton's recent form shows lower goal output and less offensive threat compared to Burnley.

Burnley ranks 22nd with 7 points, while Charlton is 12th with 13 points, indicating Burnley’s need for points to climb the table.

What To Watch In The Data

Burnley to Win notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Burnley’s 60% Over 2.5 goals rate this season suggests a tendency for higher-scoring games, while Charlton’s 40% rate is lower.
  • The trend points to a game with potential for multiple goals, driven by Burnley’s attacking intent and defensive lapses.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burnley1.6
Avg goals scored
Charlton0.4
Burnley1.4
Avg goals conceded
Charlton1.6
Burnley80%
BTTS rate
Charlton40%
Burnley60%
Over 2.5 goals
Charlton40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Burnley averages 1.6 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate, indicating open matches with goals at both ends. Charlton’s lower scoring (0.4 goals per game) and 40% BTTS rate suggest they are less likely to score, but Burnley’s defensive concessions keep BTTS plausible. This dynamic supports a competitive game with goal opportunities.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBurnley to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 63% · edge -1 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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Burnley Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 61.5% for Burnley to Win sits against roughly 62.5% implied by the current price (-1 pts). Burnley have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Charlton.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burnley

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 4L
10 Oct 2026A Watford4-0
19 Sep 2026H Derby1-1
12 Sep 2026A Swansea1-3
08 Sep 2026A Wrexham1-1
05 Sep 2026H Bristol City1-2

Charlton

DLDDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 2L
10 Oct 2026H Bristol City1-1
19 Sep 2026A Cardiff1-3
12 Sep 2026H Portsmouth0-0
09 Sep 2026H QPR0-0
05 Sep 2026A Stoke City0-4
Market aligned with main pickBurnley to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 63% · edge -1 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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Burnley Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Burnley’s recent form shows 5 points gained with a goal average of 1.6 per game, indicating improved attacking output. Charlton’s 3 points and 0.4 goals per game reflect struggles to convert chances. Burnley’s momentum and home advantage suggest they are better positioned to secure a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Burnley Over 2.5
40%Charlton Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Burnley’s 60% Over 2.5 goals rate this season suggests a tendency for higher-scoring games, while Charlton’s 40% rate is lower. The trend points to a game with potential for multiple goals, driven by Burnley’s attacking intent and defensive lapses.

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