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Fortaleza EC crestFortaleza EC
v
Ceara crestCeara

Serie B | Sun 13 Sep, 22:30

Fortaleza EC v Ceara Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fortaleza EC hosts Ceara in a Serie B clash where Fortaleza sits comfortably in 4th place with 47 points, while Ceara struggles near the relegation zone in 16th with 31 points. Fortaleza's recent form shows solid defensive resilience, conceding just 0.4 goals per game, contrasting Ceara's leaky defense allowing 1.4 goals on average. Fortaleza's attacking output is slightly higher, and their home advantage adds to their . Ceara's recent matches have been inconsistent, and their defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by Fortaleza's sharper attacking players in this crucial fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Fortaleza EC to Win

  • Fortaleza EC holds a strong 4th place in Serie B with 47 points, compared to Ceara's 16th and 31 points.
  • Fortaleza concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showcasing defensive solidity against Ceara's 1.4 goals conceded.
  • Fortaleza averages 17.8 shots per game with 4.8 on target, indicating attacking pressure.
  • Ceara has a high over 2.5 goals rate (60%), but Fortaleza's recent matches have been low scoring, suggesting a tight game.
  • Fortaleza's recent form yields 11 points with a BTTS rate of 40%, favoring a controlled match outcome.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Fortaleza EC to win with a strong 70.6% chance, reflecting their superior league position, defensive strength, and attacking efficiency. Fortaleza's low goals conceded rate (0.4 per game) and higher shot volume (17.8 per game) indicate control and offensive threat. Ceara's defensive fragility and lower points tally further support Fortaleza's advantage. The price at 1.91 offers positive value with an 18.2% edge, making this a confident selection without price sensitivity. No data limitations affect this analysis, reinforcing the bet's reliability.

Model Win Probability70.6%
Strong positive
Fortaleza Defensive Record0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Fortaleza Attacking Shots17.8 shots per game
Positive
Ceara Defensive Weakness1.4 goals conceded per game
Positive
Value Edge+18.2%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fortaleza EC's solid defensive record and superior league standing make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their ability to control matches and create more chances than Ceara underpins this selection, while Ceara's defensive struggles and lower form reduce their chances of an upset.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Fortaleza's defensive discipline combined with their attacking volume creates a strong foundation for a home win against a defensively vulnerable Ceara side.”

Key Data Signals

Fortaleza EC to Win evidence

Fortaleza EC holds a strong 4th place in Serie B with 47 points, compared to Ceara's 16th and 31 points.

Fortaleza concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showcasing defensive solidity against Ceara's 1.4 goals conceded.

Fortaleza averages 17.8 shots per game with 4.8 on target, indicating attacking pressure.

Ceara has a high over 2.5 goals rate (60%), but Fortaleza's recent matches have been low scoring, suggesting a tight game.

What To Watch In The Data

Fortaleza EC to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.8, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Fortaleza's recent matches have seen a 0% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting a tactical, controlled tempo likely to limit goal volume in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fortaleza EC1.2
Avg goals scored
Ceara1
Fortaleza EC0.4
Avg goals conceded
Ceara1.4
Fortaleza EC40%
BTTS rate
Ceara60%
Fortaleza EC0%
Over 2.5 goals
Ceara60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Recent form data shows Fortaleza averaging only 1.2 goals per game with a 40% BTTS rate, while Ceara concedes 1.4 goals per game but has a 60% BTTS rate. This suggests a controlled match with a higher chance of Fortaleza keeping a clean sheet, supporting a BTTS No scenario with limited goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The for Fortaleza EC to win at 1.91 reflect a market underestimation compared to the model's 70.6% win probability, indicating clear value. This price is attractive given Fortaleza's consistent form and defensive solidity, suggesting the market may be overlooking their home advantage and Ceara's defensive frailties.

Continue the research

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fortaleza EC5.8
Avg corners for
Ceara6.8
Fortaleza EC10.6
Avg total corners
Ceara12.4
Fortaleza EC1.4
Avg yellow cards
Ceara2
Fortaleza EC17.8
Avg shots
Ceara14.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
Fortaleza averages 5.8 corners and 1.4 yellow cards per game, indicating disciplined play with moderate attacking pressure. Ceara's higher corners (7.33) and yellow cards (2.33) suggest more defensive fouling and pressure on Fortaleza's defense. Shot data favors Fortaleza's attacking threat with 17.8 shots per game versus Ceara's 15, reinforcing Fortaleza's offensive edge.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fortaleza EC

WWDWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
09 Sep 2026H Avai1-0
05 Sep 2026A Goias1-0
31 Aug 2026H Operario-PR1-1
23 Aug 2026A Criciuma2-0
19 Aug 2026H São Bernardo1-1

Ceara

LWLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
10 Sep 2026A Atletico Goianiense1-2
05 Sep 2026H Sport Recife2-1
30 Aug 2026A Vila Nova0-2
22 Aug 2026H Londrina2-1
19 Aug 2026A Nautico Recife0-1
Market aligned with main pickFortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Fortaleza's recent form is strong, earning 11 points with a solid defensive record conceding only 0.4 goals per game. Ceara's form is weaker with 6 points and a higher goals conceded rate of 1.4 per game. Fortaleza's ability to limit goals against and maintain attacking pressure underpins their favored status in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Fortaleza EC wins
5Draws
5Ceara wins
17 May 2026Ceara v Fortaleza EC2-1
09 Apr 2026Ceara v Fortaleza EC2-0
08 Mar 2026Ceara v Fortaleza EC1-1
01 Mar 2026Fortaleza EC v Ceara1-1
08 Feb 2026Ceara v Fortaleza EC0-0
06 Nov 2025Ceara v Fortaleza EC1-1
Market aligned with main pickFortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The last ten meetings between Fortaleza and Ceara have averaged 1.8 goals per game, reflecting tight contests. This historical trend supports a cautious approach to goal markets and aligns with Fortaleza's defensive strength, though it offers only moderate support for a clear home win given the competitive nature of past fixtures.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Serie B

Fortaleza EC27
Played
Ceara27
Fortaleza EC1.1
Avg goals for
Ceara1
Fortaleza EC0.8
Avg goals against
Ceara1.3
Fortaleza EC13
Clean sheets
Ceara5
Market aligned with main pickFortaleza EC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Fortaleza EC Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Season stats highlight Fortaleza's defensive excellence with only 0.4 goals conceded per game and a steady attack averaging 1.2 goals. Ceara's defense is less effective, conceding 1.4 goals per game, while their attack is slightly less potent. These long-term trends support Fortaleza's likelihood to control the match and secure a win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Fortaleza EC472713868
16Ceara31278712-7
Fortaleza's 4th place standing with 47 points contrasts sharply with Ceara's 16th place and 31 points, reflecting consistent performance and competitive edge. This gap in league position indicates Fortaleza's stronger squad depth and form, which should influence the match outcome significantly.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Fortaleza EC Over 2.5
60%Ceara Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.8, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Fortaleza's recent matches have seen a 0% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting a tactical, controlled tempo likely to limit goal volume in this fixture.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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