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Novorizontino crestNovorizontino
v
Cuiaba crestCuiaba

Serie B | Sun 13 Sep, 22:30

Novorizontino v Cuiaba Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Novorizontino face Cuiaba in Serie B on Sun 13 Sep, 22:30. Novorizontino come in with 15 recent points and 3 goals per match, while Cuiaba have 10 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Novorizontino to Win

  • At 1.67, Novorizontino to Win implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 10 for Cuiaba.
  • Novorizontino have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Novorizontino to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Novorizontino sit 2 in the table, while Cuiaba sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Novorizontino to Win sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 10 for Cuiaba.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Positive
Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points.Visible data support
Positive
Novorizontino have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Novorizontino Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 10 for Cuiaba. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Novorizontino to Win evidence

Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 10 for Cuiaba.

Novorizontino have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Novorizontino Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Novorizontino sit 2 in the table, while Cuiaba sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Novorizontino to Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Novorizontino7.8
    Avg corners for
    Cuiaba4.2
    Novorizontino12.6
    Avg total corners
    Cuiaba8.8
    Novorizontino1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Cuiaba1.2
    Novorizontino18.6
    Avg shots
    Cuiaba14
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Novorizontino3
    Avg goals scored
    Cuiaba1.4
    Novorizontino0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Cuiaba0.8
    Novorizontino80%
    BTTS rate
    Cuiaba40%
    Novorizontino100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Cuiaba40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 31%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +14.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Novorizontino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Novorizontino to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Novorizontino

    WWWWW
    Last 55W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 1D 3L
    09 Sep 2026A Botafogo SP3-1
    05 Sep 2026H Avai3-1
    29 Aug 2026H Sport Recife2-1
    24 Aug 2026A Athletic Club4-1
    21 Aug 2026H America Mineiro3-0

    Cuiaba

    WLWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    09 Sep 2026H Athletic Club3-0
    04 Sep 2026A Criciuma0-2
    29 Aug 2026A Botafogo SP2-1
    22 Aug 2026H Goias1-1
    20 Aug 2026H Operario-PR1-0
    Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +14.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Novorizontino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Novorizontino wins
    1Draws
    0Cuiaba wins
    17 May 2026Cuiaba v Novorizontino0-0
    08 Oct 2025Cuiaba v Novorizontino0-1
    15 Jun 2025Novorizontino v Cuiaba3-0
    Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +14.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Novorizontino to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie B

    Novorizontino27
    Played
    Cuiaba27
    Novorizontino1.7
    Avg goals for
    Cuiaba1
    Novorizontino0.9
    Avg goals against
    Cuiaba0.8
    Novorizontino9
    Clean sheets
    Cuiaba11
    Market aligned with main pickNovorizontino to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +14.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Novorizontino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.32
    Check odds @ 1.32
    Season data supports Novorizontino to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Novorizontino4927147623
    10Cuiaba392791265
    Novorizontino sit in position 2, while Cuiaba sit in position 10, so table pressure belongs in the Novorizontino to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Novorizontino Over 2.5
    40%Cuiaba Over 2.5
    1.33H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Novorizontino sit at 100% and Cuiaba sit at 40% with the H2H average at 1.33 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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    Betting context

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