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Atletico Goianiense crestAtletico Goianiense
v
Criciuma crestCriciuma

Serie B | Sun 13 Sep, 20:00

Atletico Goianiense v Criciuma Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico Goianiense hosts Criciuma in a Serie B clash where Atletico Goianiense's recent form and tactical solidity set them as clear favorites. Atletico Goianiense have accumulated 11 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.6 goals per match, while Criciuma struggles with only 4 points and a leaky defense allowing 1.4 goals per game. Atletico Goianiense's attacking threat and home advantage provide them with a significant edge in this encounter, though Criciuma's resilience means the match could still present tactical challenges.

BT4Y best bet

Atletico Goianiense to Win

  • Atletico Goianiense has a 74% to win, showing strong value at 2.15 .
  • Atletico Goianiense averages 1.6 goals scored and concedes only 0.6 per game, highlighting defensive strength.
  • Criciuma's recent form is weaker with just 4 points and 1.4 goals conceded per match.
  • Atletico Goianiense's attackers, including Gustavo Coutinho and João Pedro, show high goal threat and shot accuracy.
  • The head-to-head average goals of 2.3 suggest moderate scoring, supporting a controlled game pace.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Atletico Goianiense to win due to their superior recent form, stronger defensive record, and higher goal-scoring rate compared to Criciuma. Their home advantage and attacking players like Gustavo Coutinho, who averages over a goal every two games with strong shot accuracy, reinforce this edge. The price offers positive value with a 27.5% edge over the implied chance, making this a confident selection without price warnings. Both teams' moderate BTTS rates and the head-to-head goal average suggest Atletico Goianiense can control the match tempo effectively.

Recent form pointsAtletico Goianiense 11 vs Criciuma 4
Strong positive
Defensive solidityAtletico Goianiense concedes 0.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Goal threatGustavo Coutinho 10 goals, 1.22 shots on target per 90
Positive
Price value edge27.5% positive edge at 2.15 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Atletico Goianiense's consistent recent form and defensive discipline make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their attacking players demonstrate the quality to break down Criciuma's defense, while Criciuma's struggles in front of goal reduce their threat level. This combination points to a controlled home win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical advantage

“Atletico Goianiense's balance of solid defense and effective attacking options like Gustavo Coutinho positions them well to dominate this fixture tactically and statistically.”

Key Data Signals

Atletico Goianiense to Win evidence

Atletico Goianiense has a 74% to win, showing strong value at 2.15 .

Atletico Goianiense averages 1.6 goals scored and concedes only 0.6 per game, highlighting defensive strength.

Criciuma's recent form is weaker with just 4 points and 1.4 goals conceded per match.

Atletico Goianiense's attackers, including Gustavo Coutinho and João Pedro, show high goal threat and shot accuracy.

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico Goianiense to Win notes

  • In the last ten matches, the average goals scored in head-to-head meetings is 2.3, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Atletico Goianiense's 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Criciuma's 20%, suggesting Atletico Goianiense drives higher tempo and attacking output, which could influence the match's goal dynamics.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atletico Goianiense1.6
Avg goals scored
Criciuma0.8
Atletico Goianiense0.6
Avg goals conceded
Criciuma1.4
Atletico Goianiense40%
BTTS rate
Criciuma40%
Atletico Goianiense60%
Over 2.5 goals
Criciuma20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.2 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, and Atletico Goianiense's defensive record suggests a controlled match with limited goal concessions. The average head-to-head goals of 2.3 support a moderate scoring environment, indicating a likely scenario of Atletico Goianiense winning with a manageable goal margin and potential for a clean sheet.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Atletico Goianiense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
The for Atletico Goianiense to win reflect a strong value proposition, with the model assigning a 74% chance compared to the implied 46.5%. This significant positive indicates the market underestimates Atletico Goianiense's likelihood of victory, making the bet price-sensitive but clearly advantageous.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Atletico Goianiense5.5
Avg corners for
Criciuma8
Atletico Goianiense11
Avg total corners
Criciuma19
Atletico Goianiense2
Avg yellow cards
Criciuma3
Atletico Goianiense18.5
Avg shots
Criciuma10
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Atletico Goianiense averages 5 corners and 1.8 yellow cards per game, reflecting disciplined play with steady territorial control. Criciuma's higher average corners (7.6) and yellow cards (2.4) suggest they may press aggressively but risk fouls. Shot volumes favor Atletico Goianiense with 16.8 shots per game, indicating offensive control and sustained pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atletico Goianiense

WDWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
10 Sep 2026H Ceara2-1
05 Sep 2026A Juventude2-2
30 Aug 2026A Avai1-0
25 Aug 2026H Botafogo SP3-0
18 Aug 2026A Londrina0-0

Criciuma

LWLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
09 Sep 2026H Juventude0-2
04 Sep 2026H Cuiaba2-0
30 Aug 2026A CRB1-2
23 Aug 2026H Fortaleza EC0-2
20 Aug 2026A Botafogo SP1-1
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Atletico Goianiense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Atletico Goianiense's recent form is robust, securing 11 points with a strong defensive record conceding just 0.6 goals per game. Criciuma's form is weaker, with only 4 points and a higher goals-against average of 1.4. This form disparity underpins Atletico Goianiense's and tactical control heading into the match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Atletico Goianiense wins
2Draws
5Criciuma wins
17 May 2026Criciuma v Atletico Goianiense1-1
09 Nov 2025Criciuma v Atletico Goianiense1-0
18 Jul 2025Atletico Goianiense v Criciuma0-1
03 Oct 2024Criciuma v Atletico Goianiense2-0
19 Jun 2024Atletico Goianiense v Criciuma1-2
23 Sep 2023Atletico Goianiense v Criciuma3-1
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
The last ten meetings between Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma average 2.3 goals per game, reflecting a moderately open contest historically. While this supports a balanced scoring environment, Atletico Goianiense's current form and defensive improvements provide them with a tactical edge over Criciuma in this matchup.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Atletico Goianiense27
Played
Criciuma0
Atletico Goianiense1.2
Avg goals for
Criciuma-
Atletico Goianiense1
Avg goals against
Criciuma-
Atletico Goianiense9
Clean sheets
Criciuma-
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Goianiense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Atletico Goianiense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Over the season, Atletico Goianiense demonstrates a balanced profile with 1.6 goals scored per game and a tight defense allowing 0.6 goals. Criciuma's lower scoring rate of 0.8 and higher concession rate of 1.4 highlight their struggles. These stats support Atletico Goianiense's ability to control the match tempo and limit Criciuma's attacking opportunities.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Criciuma472713867
7Atletico Goianiense4327111066
Atletico Goianiense sits 7th with 43 points, while Criciuma is 5th with 47 points. Despite Criciuma's higher position, Atletico Goianiense's recent form and home advantage suggest they can close the gap. The standings indicate a competitive fixture with both sides motivated, but Atletico Goianiense's momentum is a key factor.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Atletico Goianiense Over 2.5
20%Criciuma Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last ten matches, the average goals scored in head-to-head meetings is 2.3, indicating moderate scoring. Atletico Goianiense's 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Criciuma's 20%, suggesting Atletico Goianiense drives higher tempo and attacking output, which could influence the match's goal dynamics.

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