Bolívar

Gremio

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Thu 23 Jul, 23:00

Bolívar v Gremio Stats

Data last updated: Sun 16 Aug 2026, 04:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bolívar face Gremio in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thu 23 Jul, 23:00. Grêmio welcome Bolívar to the Arena do Grêmio for the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana last-16 playoff, with the contest finely balanced after a dramatic 3-2 victory for the Bolivian side in La Paz.

BT4Y best bet

Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need

At 2/1, Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need implies roughly 33%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 40%.
Bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both teams scoring is likely, reflecting the home side’s urgency and visitors’ counter-attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 40% for Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need sits against roughly 33% implied by the current price. Bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both teams scoring is likely, reflecting the home side’s urgency and visitors’ counter-attacking threat.

Model chance vs price40% model chance against roughly 33% implied

Positive

Bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both.Article support

Positive

Price sensitivityEdge +6.7 pts

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both teams scoring is likely, reflecting the home side’s urgency and visitors’ counter-attacking threat. Walter Kannemann is expected to anchor the defence, but the identity of his central partner is another question.

Main risk

Walter Kannemann is expected to anchor the defence, but the identity of his central partner is another question.

Key Data Signals

Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need evidence

Bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both teams scoring is likely, reflecting the home side’s urgency.

What To Watch In The Data

Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need notes

Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bolívar

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Bolívar yet.

Gremio

DWWDW

Last 53W 2D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 2D 1L

26 May 2026H Atletico Torque2-2

21 May 2026H Palestino2-0

05 May 2026A Deportivo Riestra3-0

30 Apr 2026A Palestino0-0

14 Apr 2026H Deportivo Riestra1-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.3

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Gremio Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 44%

3.45

Check odds @ 3.45

Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

Bolívar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Bolívar to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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Useful next reads

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	Gremio	11	6	3	2	1	5

CONMEBOL Sudamericana standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bolívar-

Avg goals scored

Gremio1.6

Bolívar-

Avg goals conceded

Gremio0.4

Bolívar-

BTTS rate

Gremio20%

Bolívar-

Over 2.5 goals

Gremio40%

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 55% · edge -14.6 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%

1.95

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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 64%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%

Check odds @ 3

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%

1.85

Check odds @ 1.85

Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

BTTS Yes does not fully support the current price; this needs scoring involvement from both teams, not just pressure from one side.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 55% · edge -14.6 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

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Gremio Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 44%

3.45

Check odds @ 3.45

Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%

1.85

Check odds @ 1.85

Bolívar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Bolívar to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

BTTS Yes is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Bolívar wins

0Draws

0Gremio wins

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 55% · edge -14.6 pts

1.83

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Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%

1.85

Check odds @ 1.85

Bolívar to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for BTTS Yes, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bolívar-

Avg corners for

Gremio4.4

Bolívar-

Avg total corners

Gremio9.4

Bolívar-

Avg yellow cards

Gremio2.8

Bolívar-

Avg shots

Gremio14

Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 2

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Over 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 67%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Bolívar3

Played

Gremio8

Bolívar1.7

Avg goals for

Gremio1.3

Bolívar1

Avg goals against

Gremio0.9

Bolívar1

Clean sheets

Gremio4

Best odds for this sectionGremio Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts

3.45

Check odds @ 3.45

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Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

Bolívar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Bolívar to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Season data supports Gremio Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Bolívar Over 2.5

40%Gremio Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both teams scoring is likely, reflecting the home side’s urgency and visitors’ counter-attacking threat.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Bolívar v Gremio Stats

Match Report

Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Bolívar

Gremio

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Football Stats Hub

Bolívar v Gremio Stats

Match Report

Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Bolívar

Gremio

Continue the research

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Prediction context

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