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Bolívar crestBolívar
v
Gremio crestGremio

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Thu 23 Jul, 23:00

Bolívar v Gremio Stats

Data last updated: Wed 30 Sep 2026, 11:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bolívar face Gremio in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thu 23 Jul, 23:00. Grêmio welcome Bolívar to the Arena do Grêmio for the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana last-16 playoff, with the contest finely balanced after a dramatic 3-2 victory for the Bolivian side in La Paz.

BT4Y best bet

Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need

  • At 2/1, Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need implies roughly 33%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 40%.
  • Bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both teams scoring is likely, reflecting the home side’s urgency and visitors’ counter-attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 40% for Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need sits against roughly 33% implied by the current price. Bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both teams scoring is likely, reflecting the home side’s urgency and visitors’ counter-attacking threat.

Model chance vs price40% model chance against roughly 33% implied
Positive
Bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +6.7 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both teams scoring is likely, reflecting the home side’s urgency and visitors’ counter-attacking threat. Walter Kannemann is expected to anchor the defence, but the identity of his central partner is another question.

Main risk

Walter Kannemann is expected to anchor the defence, but the identity of his central partner is another question.

Key Data Signals

Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need evidence

Bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both teams scoring is likely, reflecting the home side’s urgency.

What To Watch In The Data

Ly, and they risk opening the spaces Grêmio need notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bolívar

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Bolívar yet.

Gremio

DWWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 1L
26 May 2026H Atletico Torque2-2
21 May 2026H Palestino2-0
05 May 2026A Deportivo Riestra3-0
30 Apr 2026A Palestino0-0
14 Apr 2026H Deportivo Riestra1-0
Best odds for this sectionGremio Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Bolívar to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
Bolívar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5

Continue the research

Useful next reads

related match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bolívar-
Avg goals scored
Gremio1.6
Bolívar-
Avg goals conceded
Gremio0.4
Bolívar-
BTTS rate
Gremio20%
Bolívar-
Over 2.5 goals
Gremio40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 55% · edge -14.6 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS Yes does not fully support the current price; this needs scoring involvement from both teams, not just pressure from one side.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 55% · edge -14.6 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Gremio Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Bolívar to WinBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Gremio to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
Bolívar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS Yes is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Bolívar Over 2.5
40%Gremio Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Bolívar’s high attacking volume and key threats mean both teams scoring is likely, reflecting the home side’s urgency and visitors’ counter-attacking threat.

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