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Benevento crestBenevento
v
Sudtirol crestSudtirol

Serie B | Sun 30 Aug, 20:00

Benevento v Sudtirol Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Benevento hosting Sudtirol, with Sudtirol currently positioned higher in the standings and carrying momentum from an opening win. Benevento have struggled to find form, failing to secure points and conceding early goals, while Sudtirol have shown defensive solidity and tactical discipline. The match is poised as a test of Sudtirol's organized defense against Benevento's attacking intent, with Sudtirol aiming to capitalize on their recent and Benevento seeking to reverse their fortunes at home.

BT4Y best bet

Sudtirol to Win

  • Sudtirol holds a 63.7% to win, significantly above the implied suggesting strong value.
  • Benevento have conceded early and lost their opening match, while Sudtirol kept a clean sheet and won.
  • Benevento averages 16 shots per game but only 3 on target, indicating inefficiency in attack.
  • Sudtirol's defender S. Davì is a notable goal threat with high shots on target and fouls won, adding attacking potential from defense.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sudtirol to win due to their superior recent form, defensive resilience, and efficient attacking threat, especially from key players like S. Benevento's high shot volume contrasts with their poor finishing and defensive lapses, making Sudtirol's organized approach a strong counter. The price offers clear value given Sudtirol's 63.7% win probability versus the market's 27.8% implied chance. No data limitations affect in this assessment.

Recent formSudtirol won opening match with clean sheet; Benevento lost conceding twice
Strong positive
Player attacking threatS. Davì leads Sudtirol with 6.43 shots on target per 90
Strong positive
Benevento shot volume vs efficiency16 shots per game but only 3 on target, indicating low conversion
Positive
Market price vs model chanceOdds imply 27.8% chance vs model 63.7%, showing strong value
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sudtirol's defensive discipline and recent winning form position them well to claim victory against a struggling Benevento side. Their ability to capitalize on Benevento's inefficiency in front of goal and maintain defensive solidity is the key tactical and statistical factor underpinning this pick.

Main risk

The defeat to Modena was hardly an ideal Serie B return, but Benevento were not shut out.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Sudtirol to Win

“Sudtirol's blend of defensive organization and attacking threat from defenders like S. Davì creates a compelling case for their win, especially against a Benevento side that has yet to convert chances efficiently.”

Key Data Signals

Sudtirol to Win evidence

Sudtirol holds a 63.7% to win, significantly above the implied suggesting strong value.

Benevento have conceded early and lost their opening match, while Sudtirol kept a clean sheet and won.

Benevento averages 16 shots per game but only 3 on target, indicating inefficiency in attack.

Sudtirol's defender S. Davì is a notable goal threat with high shots on target and fouls won, adding attacking potential from defense.

What To Watch In The Data

Sudtirol to Win notes

  • The last two head-to-head matches averaged 2 goals, a moderate scoring rate.
  • Benevento's recent matches have seen consistent Over 2.5 goals, while Sudtirol's games have been lower scoring.
  • This suggests a potential for open play but also tactical caution from Sudtirol, balancing goal expectations.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Benevento8
Avg corners for
Sudtirol1
Benevento12
Avg total corners
Sudtirol6
Benevento1
Avg yellow cards
Sudtirol3
Benevento16
Avg shots
Sudtirol8
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Benevento dominate in shots (16 per game) and corners (8 per game), indicating territorial pressure and attacking volume. Sudtirol's lower averages (8 shots, 1 corner) reflect a more conservative approach. Sudtirol's higher yellow card average (3 per game) suggests a physical defensive style that could disrupt Benevento's rhythm.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Benevento1
Avg goals scored
Sudtirol1
Benevento2
Avg goals conceded
Sudtirol0
Benevento100%
BTTS rate
Sudtirol0%
Benevento100%
Over 2.5 goals
Sudtirol0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Benevento's matches have featured goals and both teams scoring, with a 100% BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rate, reflecting their defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent. Sudtirol, however, have kept clean sheets and no BTTS in their matches, suggesting a tactical clash between Benevento's open style and Sudtirol's defensive discipline.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSudtirol to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Sudtirol Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Sudtirol's at 3.6 offer significant value given the model's 63.7% win probability. This discrepancy highlights a market underestimation of Sudtirol's chances, making the bet price-sensitive but attractive. Improvement in Sudtirol's in-play control or further market drift would enhance .
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Benevento

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Aug 2026H Modena1-2

Sudtirol

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
22 Aug 2026H Virtus Entella1-0
Market aligned with main pickSudtirol to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Sudtirol Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Sudtirol's opening win with a clean sheet contrasts with Benevento's loss conceding twice, showing Sudtirol's better momentum and defensive stability. Benevento's high goals conceded and BTTS rate underline defensive frailty, while Sudtirol's form suggests tactical cohesion and resilience.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Benevento wins
1Draws
1Sudtirol wins
01 Mar 2023Benevento v Sudtirol0-2
09 Oct 2022Sudtirol v Benevento1-1
Market aligned with main pickSudtirol to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
The limited head-to-head sample of two matches shows moderate goal scoring but does not strongly favor either side. Given the small sample, current form and tactical setups carry more weight than past meetings in predicting the outcome.
Season team stats

Serie B

Benevento1
Played
Sudtirol1
Benevento1
Avg goals for
Sudtirol1
Benevento2
Avg goals against
Sudtirol0
Benevento0
Clean sheets
Sudtirol1
Market aligned with main pickSudtirol to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Sudtirol Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Sudtirol's season profile shows strong defensive numbers and efficient attack, supporting their win chances. Benevento's high shot and corner counts are offset by poor defensive records and goal conversion, indicating imbalance. Sudtirol's ability to absorb pressure and counterattack is a key season-long trait.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Sudtirol311001
16Benevento01001-1
Sudtirol's 7th place and early points advantage over 15th-placed Benevento reflect current competitive edge. While standings are early, Sudtirol's position indicates better squad form and , adding context to their favored status in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Benevento Over 2.5
0%Sudtirol Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
The last two head-to-head matches averaged 2 goals, a moderate scoring rate. Benevento's recent matches have seen consistent Over 2.5 goals, while Sudtirol's games have been lower scoring. This suggests a potential for open play but also tactical caution from Sudtirol, balancing goal expectations.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Benevento v Sudtirol prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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