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Benevento crestBenevento
v
Sudtirol crestSudtirol

Serie B | Sun 30 Aug, 20:00

Benevento v Sudtirol Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 19:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benevento face Sudtirol in Serie B on Sun 30 Aug, 20:00. Benevento have scored in 21 of their last 22 matches, making Südtirol’s defensive record likely to face a more persistent test than the league opener provided.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Under 2

  • At 1.57, Under 2 implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 56%.
  • Südtirol's strong defensive record and low shot accuracy combine with Benevento's consistent scoring but defensive lapses to suggest a match with fewer than three.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Benevento and 0% for Sudtirol, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Benevento are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Sudtirol at 1.
  • BTTS rates of 100% for Benevento and 0% for Sudtirol show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
Price warning

Under 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 64% while the model sits nearer 56% (-7.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 2.05.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 56% for Under 2 sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Benevento and 0% for Sudtirol, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Südtirol's strong defensive record and low shot accuracy combine with Benevento's consistent scoring but defensive lapses to suggest a match with fewer than three.

Model chance vs price56% model chance against roughly 64% implied
Negative
The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Benevento and 0%.Visible data support
Positive
Benevento are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.Visible data support
Positive
Südtirol's strong defensive record and low shot accuracy combine.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because their past five Serie B matches have all finished under 2.5 goals, while the latest three in the division brought clean sheets. Benevento are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Sudtirol at 1. The defeat to Modena was hardly an ideal Serie B return, but Benevento were not shut out.

Main risk

The defeat to Modena was hardly an ideal Serie B return, but Benevento were not shut out.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Their past five Serie B matches have all finished under 2.5 goals, while the latest three in the.

Benevento are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Sudtirol at 1.

BTTS rates of 100% for Benevento and 0% for Sudtirol show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Benevento8
Avg corners for
Sudtirol1
Benevento12
Avg total corners
Sudtirol6
Benevento1
Avg yellow cards
Sudtirol3
Benevento16
Avg shots
Sudtirol8
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

Benevento v Sudtirol predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Benevento1
Avg goals scored
Sudtirol1
Benevento2
Avg goals conceded
Sudtirol0
Benevento100%
BTTS rate
Sudtirol0%
Benevento100%
Over 2.5 goals
Sudtirol0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 64% · edge -7.9 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 100% for Benevento and 0% for Sudtirol, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Sudtirol to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Sudtirol Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Benevento to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Benevento

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Aug 2026H Modena1-2

Sudtirol

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
22 Aug 2026H Virtus Entella1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 59% · edge +1 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Sudtirol to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Sudtirol Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Benevento to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Benevento Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Benevento wins
1Draws
1Sudtirol wins
01 Mar 2023Benevento v Sudtirol0-2
09 Oct 2022Sudtirol v Benevento1-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Sudtirol to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Benevento to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie B

Benevento4
Played
Sudtirol4
Benevento1.3
Avg goals for
Sudtirol1.3
Benevento1.3
Avg goals against
Sudtirol0.5
Benevento0
Clean sheets
Sudtirol2
Best odds for this sectionSudtirol to WinBet365 guide price · Model 32% vs implied 28% · edge +4 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Sudtirol Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Benevento to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Benevento Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Season data supports Sudtirol to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Sudtirol842203
9Benevento752121
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Benevento Over 2.5
0%Sudtirol Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Benevento sit at 100% and Sudtirol sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Benevento v Sudtirol prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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