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Palermo crestPalermo
v
Padova crestPadova

Serie B | Sat 19 Sep, 14:00

Palermo v Padova Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palermo face Padova in Serie B on Sat 19 Sep, 14:00. Palermo come in with 10 recent points and 2 goals per match, while Padova have 7 points and 1 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 2.08, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 63%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 50% for Palermo and 25% for Padova, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Palermo are carrying more of the scoring load at 2 goals per match, with Padova at 1.
  • BTTS rates of 75% for Palermo and 50% for Padova show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 63% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 50% for Palermo and 25% for Padova, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price63% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 50% for Palermo and 25%.Visible data support
Positive
Palermo are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Palermo are carrying more of the scoring load at 2 goals per match, with Padova at 1. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Palermo are carrying more of the scoring load at 2 goals per match, with Padova at 1.

BTTS rates of 75% for Palermo and 50% for Padova show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Palermo3.75
Avg corners for
Padova3.75
Palermo9.75
Avg total corners
Padova9
Palermo2.25
Avg yellow cards
Padova2.5
Palermo14
Avg shots
Padova10.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 62% · edge +0.2 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Palermo2
Avg goals scored
Padova1
Palermo1
Avg goals conceded
Padova1
Palermo75%
BTTS rate
Padova50%
Palermo50%
Over 2.5 goals
Padova25%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 29%
2
Check odds @ 2
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Padova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Palermo to WinBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Palermo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Padova to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Palermo

DWWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
13 Sep 2026A Avellino1-1
07 Sep 2026H Sampdoria3-1
30 Aug 2026A Arezzo3-2
23 Aug 2026H Juve Stabia1-0

Padova

WLDW
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
12 Sep 2026H Ascoli1-0
06 Sep 2026A Cremonese1-3
29 Aug 2026H Hellas Verona1-1
23 Aug 2026A Pisa1-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 88% · edge -1.7 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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Padova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Palermo to WinBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Palermo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Padova to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Palermo wins
1Draws
0Padova wins
21 Mar 2026Padova v Palermo0-1
27 Dec 2025Palermo v Padova1-0
12 Jun 2022Palermo v Padova1-0
05 Jun 2022Padova v Palermo0-1
22 Apr 2019Palermo v Padova1-1
08 Dec 2018Padova v Palermo1-3
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Palermo to WinBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Padova to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie B

Palermo4
Played
Padova4
Palermo2
Avg goals for
Padova1
Palermo1
Avg goals against
Padova1
Palermo1
Clean sheets
Padova2
Best odds for this sectionPadova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 30% · edge +11.7 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Palermo to WinBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Palermo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Padova to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Season data supports Padova Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Palermo1043104
5Padova742110
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Palermo Over 2.5
25%Padova Over 2.5
1.67H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Palermo sit at 50% and Padova sit at 25% with the H2H average at 1.67 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Betting context

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