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Atlante FC crestAtlante FC
v
Monterrey crestMonterrey

Liga MX | Sat 26 Sep, 02:00

Atlante FC v Monterrey Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Monterrey arrives at this Liga MX fixture in stronger form and higher league position than Atlante FC, holding 13 points and 10th place compared to Atlante's 8 points and 14th spot. Monterrey's recent performances show a more consistent attack and tighter defense, with an average of 1.6 goals scored per game and 1.2 conceded, while Atlante FC struggles to find the net and concedes more frequently. Monterrey's tactical setup emphasizes midfield control and efficient finishing, creating a clear advantage in this contest. The match presents a good opportunity for Monterrey to consolidate their league standing against a side with limited scoring threat.

BT4Y best bet

Monterrey to Win

  • Monterrey leads the league standings with 13 points, compared to Atlante FC's 8 points.
  • Monterrey averages 1.6 goals per game, significantly higher than Atlante FC's 0.6.
  • Atlante FC concedes 1.6 goals per game, while Monterrey concedes 1.2, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Monterrey averages 21.8 shots per game with 6.6 on target, surpassing Atlante FC's 18 shots and 4 on target.
  • Monterrey's recent form yields 7 points versus Atlante FC's 3 in the last matches played.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Monterrey to win with a 67.4% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, higher league standing, and stronger attacking and defensive stats. Monterrey's ability to generate more shots and shots on target per game underpins their offensive threat, while their relatively better defensive record supports in limiting Atlante FC's scoring chances. The of 16.1% indicates the market underestimates Monterrey's winning probability, making this a positive value bet. No data limitations affect this assessment, and the price is aligned with the model's , supporting a standard stake.

Model Win Probability67.4%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance51.3%
Strong positive
Value Edge16.1%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsMonterrey 7 vs Atlante FC 3
Positive
Shots per GameMonterrey 21.8 vs Atlante FC 18
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Monterrey's tactical discipline and superior recent form make them the clear favorites to secure victory. Their higher shot volume and better goal conversion rates provide a solid statistical foundation for this pick, aligning well with their league standing and momentum.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Monterrey's consistent attacking pressure and midfield control give them a distinct edge in this matchup, making their win a logical and data-backed expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Monterrey to Win evidence

Monterrey leads the league standings with 13 points, compared to Atlante FC's 8 points.

Monterrey averages 1.6 goals per game, significantly higher than Atlante FC's 0.6.

Atlante FC concedes 1.6 goals per game, while Monterrey concedes 1.2, indicating defensive solidity.

Monterrey averages 21.8 shots per game with 6.6 on target, surpassing Atlante FC's 18 shots and 4 on target.

What To Watch In The Data

Monterrey to Win notes

  • In the last ten matches, Over 2.5 Goals occurred in 40% of Monterrey's games and only 20% for Atlante FC, with an average of 2 goals in their sole head-to-head meeting.
  • This suggests a moderate scoring tempo with Monterrey more likely to contribute to a higher goal count, influenced by their attacking style and defensive solidity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Atlante FC4.2
Avg corners for
Monterrey9.2
Atlante FC8.6
Avg total corners
Monterrey10.8
Atlante FC1.8
Avg yellow cards
Monterrey1.4
Atlante FC18
Avg shots
Monterrey21.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Monterrey averages 9.2 corners per game compared to Atlante FC's 4.2, indicating territorial control and sustained pressure. Monterrey also averages fewer yellow cards (1.4) than Atlante FC (1.8), suggesting disciplined play. The higher shot and corner counts for Monterrey support their attacking threat and control of the match tempo.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atlante FC0.6
Avg goals scored
Monterrey1.6
Atlante FC1.6
Avg goals conceded
Monterrey1.2
Atlante FC60%
BTTS rate
Monterrey40%
Atlante FC20%
Over 2.5 goals
Monterrey40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Atlante FC's low scoring rate of 0.6 goals per game contrasts with Monterrey's 1.6, while both teams have moderate BTTS rates (60% for Atlante FC, 40% for Monterrey). The goal trends suggest a moderate scoring game with a possibility of both teams scoring, but Monterrey's stronger offense may dominate the scoring.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMonterrey to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Monterrey Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The current for Monterrey to win reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model estimating a 67.4% chance against a market implied probability of 51.3%. This significant suggests the market underprices Monterrey's chances, making the bet attractive at the offered of 1.95.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atlante FC

DLDDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 3L
19 Sep 2026A Puebla1-1
12 Sep 2026H CF Pachuca0-3
06 Sep 2026A Atlas1-1
29 Aug 2026H Leon1-1
22 Aug 2026A Tigres UANL0-2

Monterrey

WDLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 3L
20 Sep 2026H Cruz Azul1-0
13 Sep 2026H Tigres UANL0-0
31 Aug 2026H Atletico San Luis1-3
22 Aug 2026A Leon0-2
16 Aug 2026H FC Juarez6-1
Market aligned with main pickMonterrey to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Monterrey Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Monterrey's recent form shows 7 points gained with a balanced attack and defense, outperforming Atlante FC's 3 points and lower goal output. This momentum difference reflects Monterrey's ability to secure results and maintain pressure, reinforcing in their winning chances.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Atlante FC wins
1Draws
0Monterrey wins
04 Jul 2026Atlante FC v Monterrey1-1
Market aligned with main pickMonterrey to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The single previous meeting between these teams averaged 2 goals, indicating a moderately open game. While the sample is limited, Monterrey's superior form and squad quality provide stronger context for expecting them to outperform Atlante FC in this fixture.
Season team stats

Liga MX

Atlante FC9
Played
Monterrey8
Atlante FC0.9
Avg goals for
Monterrey1.8
Atlante FC1.4
Avg goals against
Monterrey1.3
Atlante FC1
Clean sheets
Monterrey3
Market aligned with main pickMonterrey to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Monterrey Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Over the season, Monterrey's attack has been more productive, averaging 1.6 goals per game with a solid defense conceding 1.2 goals. Atlante FC's lower scoring and higher concession rates indicate defensive vulnerabilities and offensive struggles, supporting Monterrey's advantage in this matchup.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10Monterrey1384134
14Atlante FC89153-5
Monterrey's 10th place and 13 points position them comfortably above Atlante FC, who sit 14th with 8 points. While not at the top, Monterrey's higher standing reflects better consistency and form, adding context to their favored status in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Atlante FC Over 2.5
40%Monterrey Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last ten matches, Over 2.5 Goals occurred in 40% of Monterrey's games and only 20% for Atlante FC, with an average of 2 goals in their sole head-to-head meeting. This suggests a moderate scoring tempo with Monterrey more likely to contribute to a higher goal count, influenced by their attacking style and defensive solidity.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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