Football Stats Hub

Cruz Azul crestCruz Azul
v
Toluca crestToluca

Liga MX | Sat 26 Sep, 23:50

Cruz Azul v Toluca Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toluca enters this Liga MX clash in strong form, leading the table with 19 points and boasting an attacking prowess that averages 2.8 goals per game. Cruz Azul, sitting fourth with 15 points, has a more modest scoring record and a slightly leakier defense. Toluca's recent momentum and offensive efficiency set a challenging task for Cruz Azul, who will need to tighten defensively and find sharper attacking solutions to counter Toluca's dynamic frontline. The match promises tactical intensity with Toluca aiming to extend their lead at the summit.

BT4Y best bet

Toluca to Win

  • Toluca leads Liga MX standings with 19 points, showing consistent winning form.
  • Toluca averages 2.8 goals per game, significantly higher than Cruz Azul's 1.6.
  • Toluca's recent matches feature an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating attacking openness.
  • Cruz Azul concedes 1.4 goals per game, vulnerable against Toluca's strong attack.
  • Toluca's key attackers, Paulinho and C. Carrillo, have high shot and goal involvement rates.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Toluca to win with a 63.7% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and offensive output. Toluca's ability to score and maintain defensive solidity contrasts with Cruz Azul's more inconsistent performances. The price offers positive value given the implied chance is only 39.2%, making Toluca a compelling selection. Player-level data supports this, with Toluca's attackers demonstrating high shot volumes and goal threat. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability63.7%
Strong positive
Toluca Goals per Game2.8
Strong positive
Cruz Azul Goals Against per Game1.4
Positive
Value Edge vs Implied Chance+24.5%
Strong positive
Player Attack MetricsHigh shots and goals from Paulinho and Carrillo
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Toluca's superior attacking form and league-leading position make them the tactical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to create and convert chances consistently, combined with Cruz Azul's defensive vulnerabilities, underpins the in Toluca to win this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome

“Toluca's offensive dynamism and clinical finishing set them apart in this matchup, making them the clear tactical and statistical favorite to claim all three points.”

Key Data Signals

Toluca to Win evidence

Toluca leads Liga MX standings with 19 points, showing consistent winning form.

Toluca averages 2.8 goals per game, significantly higher than Cruz Azul's 1.6.

Toluca's recent matches feature an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating attacking openness.

Cruz Azul concedes 1.4 goals per game, vulnerable against Toluca's strong attack.

What To Watch In The Data

Toluca to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.7, aligning with Toluca's high Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
  • This trend suggests a match likely to feature multiple goals, driven by Toluca's attacking tempo and Cruz Azul's defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cruz Azul1.6
Avg goals scored
Toluca2.8
Cruz Azul1.4
Avg goals conceded
Toluca1.2
Cruz Azul40%
BTTS rate
Toluca60%
Cruz Azul40%
Over 2.5 goals
Toluca80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 80% vs implied 85% · edge -4.4 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Toluca's matches have a high frequency of goals, with an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate and a 60% BTTS rate, indicating open games with scoring from both sides. Cruz Azul's lower scoring and conceding rates suggest they may struggle to keep pace, supporting expectations for a goal-rich encounter.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickToluca to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Toluca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The current for Toluca to win reflect significant value compared to the model's 63.7% win probability. The price is attractive given Toluca's strong form and attacking metrics, suggesting this market is a positive-value opportunity rather than a price-sensitive watch.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Cruz Azul6.8
Avg corners for
Toluca5.6
Cruz Azul13
Avg total corners
Toluca11.6
Cruz Azul1.8
Avg yellow cards
Toluca1.4
Cruz Azul18.6
Avg shots
Toluca18.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Cruz Azul averages more corners (7.5) and shots (20) per game than Toluca, indicating they generate decent attacking pressure. However, Toluca's efficient shot conversion and lower card count (1 yellow per game) suggest disciplined, effective attacking play that could exploit Cruz Azul's defensive lapses.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cruz Azul

LWWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 4L
20 Sep 2026A Monterrey0-1
13 Sep 2026H Club America4-3
07 Sep 2026H Santos Laguna1-0
29 Aug 2026A Necaxa3-1
23 Aug 2026H Atlas0-2

Toluca

LWWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 2L
21 Sep 2026H Santos Laguna2-3
16 Sep 2026A Puebla1-0
13 Sep 2026H Atlas5-2
31 Aug 2026H FC Juarez4-0
22 Aug 2026A Club Queretaro2-1
Market aligned with main pickToluca to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Toluca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Toluca's recent form is superior, accumulating 12 points with a strong goal-scoring record of 2.8 goals per game, compared to Cruz Azul's 9 points and 1.6 goals per game. This momentum and offensive efficiency underpin Toluca's favored status to secure victory in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Cruz Azul wins
4Draws
3Toluca wins
26 Jul 2026Toluca v Cruz Azul1-3
07 Feb 2026Toluca v Cruz Azul1-1
24 Aug 2025Cruz Azul v Toluca1-0
20 Apr 2025Toluca v Cruz Azul2-2
21 Jul 2024Cruz Azul v Toluca1-1
28 Apr 2024Toluca v Cruz Azul0-1
Market aligned with main pickToluca to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.7 goals per game, indicating a history of relatively open contests. While not overwhelmingly favoring Toluca, the trend supports expectations of a competitive game with goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Liga MX

Cruz Azul9
Played
Toluca9
Cruz Azul1.8
Avg goals for
Toluca2.2
Cruz Azul1.7
Avg goals against
Toluca1
Cruz Azul1
Clean sheets
Toluca4
Market aligned with main pickToluca to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Toluca Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over the season, Toluca demonstrates a potent attack averaging 2.8 goals per game and a solid defense conceding 1.2 goals, contrasting with Cruz Azul's more modest 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. These stats highlight Toluca's balanced strength and support in their ability to win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Toluca19961211
4Cruz Azul1595041
Toluca sits atop the Liga MX standings, reflecting consistent performance and form, while Cruz Azul occupies fourth place. The table position underscores Toluca's status as favorites and the pressure on Cruz Azul to close the gap, adding tactical urgency to the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Cruz Azul Over 2.5
80%Toluca Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.7, aligning with Toluca's high Over 2.5 Goals rate this season. This trend suggests a match likely to feature multiple goals, driven by Toluca's attacking tempo and Cruz Azul's defensive vulnerabilities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Atlante FC v MonterreyLiga MX · Sat 26 Sep 02:00Club Tijuana v AtlasLiga MX · Sat 26 Sep 04:00Club America v Club TijuanaLiga MX · Thu 29 Oct 03:00Club Queretaro v MonterreyLiga MX · Sat 14 Nov 23:00

Competition and hubs

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centre

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre