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Athletic Club crestAthletic Club
v
Londrina crestLondrina

Serie B | Tue 13 Oct, 23:30

Athletic Club v Londrina Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 23:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Athletic Club face Londrina in Serie B on Tue 13 Oct, 23:30. Athletic's ability to shut out opponents in key wins and their league superiority make Both Teams To Score No a credible pick despite defensive risks on both sides.

BT4Y best bet

BTTS No

  • At 2.05, BTTS No implies roughly 49%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 51%.
  • Their latest defeat came against Goiás, where they lost 2-1 away from home.
  • Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Londrina.
  • Athletic Club have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the BTTS No angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Athletic Club sit 15 in the table, while Londrina sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 51% for BTTS No sits against roughly 49% implied by the current price. Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Londrina. Their latest defeat came against Goiás, where they lost 2-1 away from home.

Model chance vs price51% model chance against roughly 49% implied
Neutral
Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 5.Visible data support
Positive
Athletic Club have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Their latest defeat came against Goiás, where they lost.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Athletic Club Win is the preferred angle because their latest defeat came against Goiás, where they lost 2-1 away from home. Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Londrina. Athletic Club carry the stronger scoring threat, but Londrina must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Athletic Club carry the stronger scoring threat, but Londrina must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

BTTS No evidence

Their latest defeat came against Goiás, where they lost 2-1 away from home.

Athletic Club have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Londrina.

Athletic Club have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Athletic Club Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Athletic Club sit 15 in the table, while Londrina sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS No notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Athletic Club1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Londrina1.6
    Athletic Club1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Londrina1.6
    Athletic Club80%
    BTTS rate
    Londrina40%
    Athletic Club60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Londrina60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 83% vs implied 74% · edge +9.7 pts
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 49% · edge +2.1 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Athletic Club Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Athletic Club to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Athletic Club

    LLDDW
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 6L
    07 Oct 2026A Goias1-2
    02 Oct 2026H Sport Recife1-2
    27 Sep 2026A Fortaleza EC2-2
    19 Sep 2026H Botafogo SP1-1
    13 Sep 2026A Juventude2-0

    Londrina

    LLLLW
    Last 51W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 6L
    07 Oct 2026A Avai1-2
    03 Oct 2026H Criciuma0-2
    26 Sep 2026A Vila Nova0-2
    20 Sep 2026H Fortaleza EC1-2
    15 Sep 2026H Ponte Preta6-0
    Market aligned with main pickAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 49% · edge +2.1 pts
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
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    Athletic Club Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Athletic Club Over 2.5
    60%Londrina Over 2.5
    3.25H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Athletic Club sit at 60% and Londrina sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.25 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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