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Ascoli crestAscoli
v
Benevento crestBenevento

Serie B | Sat 05 Sep, 16:15

Ascoli v Benevento Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ascoli and Benevento meet in a Serie B clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but also defensive vulnerabilities early in the season. Ascoli, sitting 5th, have earned 4 points with a balanced goal output, while Benevento, placed 15th, have struggled for points but maintain a high volume of shots and corners. The tactical setup suggests open play with frequent wing attacks and set-piece opportunities, making corner counts a key battle. Both sides' pressing and transition play hint at sustained pressure and multiple corner scenarios in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Ascoli average 7 corners per match, Benevento 9.5, combining for a high corner count
  • Both teams have aggressive wing play leading to frequent corner wins
  • Recent matches show both sides concede and earn many corners under pressure
  • Model estimates a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 69% probability for over 9.5 corners, well above the 50% implied chance at of 2. Both teams generate high corner counts, with Benevento averaging 9.5 and Ascoli 7 per game, reflecting attacking wing play and defensive pressure. The match tempo and tactical openness increase corner opportunities. No data limitations affect , and the price offers positive value with a 19% edge, supporting a standard stake approach.

Model Chance69%
Strong positive
Implied Chance50%
Strong positive
Value Edge19%
Strong positive
Confidence Level88
Strong positive
Data QualityComplete for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively encounter with both Ascoli and Benevento pushing forward and contesting wide areas aggressively, leading to numerous corner kicks. The statistical profile and tactical tendencies suggest a match rich in set-piece opportunities, making over 9.5 corners a sensible selection based on both form and style of play.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market rationale

“This fixture features two teams that rely heavily on wing play and pressing, naturally generating a high volume of corners. The data and tactical setup align well, making the corners market a compelling angle for bettors.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Ascoli average 7 corners per match, Benevento 9.5, combining for a high corner count

Both teams have aggressive wing play leading to frequent corner wins

Recent matches show both sides concede and earn many corners under pressure

Model estimates a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals total 2.6, indicating moderately open games.
  • Both teams' matches this season show a 50% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting a tempo that encourages attacking transitions and set-piece situations, which often lead to corners.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ascoli1.5
Avg goals scored
Benevento1
Ascoli1
Avg goals conceded
Benevento1.5
Ascoli100%
BTTS rate
Benevento100%
Ascoli50%
Over 2.5 goals
Benevento50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams average 1 to 1.5 goals per game with a 50% over 2.5 goals rate and 100% BTTS rate, indicating open games with attacking intent. While goals are moderate, the attacking pressure translates into set-piece situations, supporting the likelihood of numerous corners.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ascoli

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
29 Aug 2026H Carrarese1-1
23 Aug 2026A Hellas Verona2-1

Benevento

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
30 Aug 2026H Sudtirol1-1
22 Aug 2026H Modena1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 74% · edge +12.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Ascoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Benevento Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Benevento to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3
Check odds @ 3
Recent form shows Ascoli with 4 points and Benevento with 1, but both maintain a 50% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and 100% BTTS rate, reflecting open, attacking games. This attacking momentum correlates with frequent corners as teams push forward and defend under pressure.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Ascoli732102
16Benevento13012-2
Ascoli's 5th place and Benevento's 15th position show differing league pressures, but both teams' attacking styles remain consistent. The standings reflect form but do not diminish the tactical tendencies that produce high corner counts, keeping the corners market relevant regardless of table position.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Ascoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Benevento Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Benevento to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The over 9.5 corners market is priced attractively at of 2, reflecting a 50% implied chance. The model's 69% probability indicates clear value, supported by both teams' high corner averages and attacking styles. This price offers a positive expected return, making it a strong candidate for backing with a standard stake.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Ascoli7
Avg corners for
Benevento9.5
Ascoli14
Avg total corners
Benevento12
Ascoli3.5
Avg yellow cards
Benevento1
Ascoli15
Avg shots
Benevento20
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Ascoli average 7 corners per match and Benevento 9.5, with Benevento also taking more shots (20 per game) than Ascoli (15). The higher shot volume and wing play create many corner opportunities. Discipline is moderate, with Ascoli receiving more yellows, suggesting physical battles that can lead to set-piece chances.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Ascoli wins
4Draws
4Benevento wins
26 Feb 2023Ascoli v Benevento0-0
02 Oct 2022Benevento v Ascoli1-1
13 May 2022Ascoli v Benevento0-1
16 Feb 2022Benevento v Ascoli0-2
18 Sep 2021Ascoli v Benevento0-2
31 Jul 2020Ascoli v Benevento2-4
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Benevento to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3
Check odds @ 3
The 10 previous meetings average 2.6 goals per game, showing balanced encounters with attacking intent from both sides. While the sample is moderate, the consistent goal output supports a dynamic match environment conducive to multiple corners, though the head-to-head data alone is not definitive.
Season team stats

Serie B

Ascoli3
Played
Benevento3
Ascoli1.3
Avg goals for
Benevento0.7
Ascoli0.7
Avg goals against
Benevento1.3
Ascoli1
Clean sheets
Benevento0
Best odds for this sectionAscoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Ascoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Benevento Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Benevento to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Season-long data reveals Ascoli averages 7 corners per match and Benevento 9.5, both figures well above league averages. Their offensive patterns favor wing play and crossing, generating numerous corner kicks. Defensive vulnerabilities also contribute to conceding corners, reinforcing the over 9.5 corners expectation.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Ascoli Over 2.5
50%Benevento Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals total 2.6, indicating moderately open games. Both teams' matches this season show a 50% over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting a tempo that encourages attacking transitions and set-piece situations, which often lead to corners.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.