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AS Roma crestAS Roma
v
Inter crestInter

Serie A | Sat 19 Sep, 17:00

AS Roma v Inter Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AS Roma face Inter in Serie A on Sat 19 Sep, 17:00. AS Roma come in with 12 recent points and 3 goals per match, while Inter have 12 points and 3.25 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.62, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 71%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 75% for AS Roma and 75% for Inter, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Inter are carrying more of the scoring load at 3.25 goals per match, with AS Roma at 3.
  • BTTS rates of 25% for AS Roma and 75% for Inter show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 71% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 75% for AS Roma and 75% for Inter, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price71% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 75% for AS Roma.Visible data support
Positive
Inter are carrying more of the scoring load at 3.25.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 75% for AS Roma and 75% for Inter, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 75% for AS Roma and 75% for Inter, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Inter are carrying more of the scoring load at 3.25 goals per match, with AS Roma at 3.

BTTS rates of 25% for AS Roma and 75% for Inter show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AS Roma3
Avg goals scored
Inter3.25
AS Roma0.25
Avg goals conceded
Inter1.5
AS Roma25%
BTTS rate
Inter75%
AS Roma75%
Over 2.5 goals
Inter75%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 62% · edge +9.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 62% · edge +9.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
AS Roma to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
AS Roma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Inter Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AS Roma6.25
Avg corners for
Inter7.25
AS Roma8
Avg total corners
Inter11.5
AS Roma1.25
Avg yellow cards
Inter1.25
AS Roma21.25
Avg shots
Inter25
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 58% · edge +7.6 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AS Roma

WWWW
Last 54W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 0L
14 Sep 2026A Torino2-0
05 Sep 2026H Atalanta2-1
31 Aug 2026A Lecce4-0
24 Aug 2026H Fiorentina4-0

Inter

WWWW
Last 54W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 0L
14 Sep 2026H Udinese5-3
05 Sep 2026H Napoli3-2
30 Aug 2026A Cagliari1-0
22 Aug 2026H Monza4-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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AS Roma to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
AS Roma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Inter Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Inter to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2AS Roma wins
0Draws
8Inter wins
05 Apr 2026Inter v AS Roma5-2
18 Oct 2025AS Roma v Inter0-1
27 Apr 2025Inter v AS Roma0-1
20 Oct 2024AS Roma v Inter0-1
10 Feb 2024AS Roma v Inter2-4
29 Oct 2023Inter v AS Roma1-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 62% · edge +9.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
AS Roma to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Inter to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

AS Roma4
Played
Inter4
AS Roma3
Avg goals for
Inter3.3
AS Roma0.3
Avg goals against
Inter1.5
AS Roma3
Clean sheets
Inter1
Best odds for this sectionAS Roma to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 37% · edge +10.4 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
AS Roma Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Inter Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Inter to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Season data supports AS Roma to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1AS Roma12440011
2Inter1244007
AS Roma sit in position 1, while Inter sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%AS Roma Over 2.5
75%Inter Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: AS Roma sit at 75% and Inter sit at 75% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

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Betting context

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