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Venezia crestVenezia
v
Lazio crestLazio

Serie A | Sat 19 Sep, 19:45

Venezia v Lazio Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 03:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Venezia face Lazio in Serie A on Sat 19 Sep, 19:45. Giovanni Stroppa’s promoted side have lost all four league matches, scoring four goals and conceding 11, while Gennaro Gattuso’s Lazio have taken 10 points from 12. Venezia vs Lazio: Defensive Fragility Meets an Unbeaten Serie A Start.

BT4Y best bet

Lazio to win

  • At 19/20, Lazio to win implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Venezia have conceded 11 goals in four Serie A matches.
  • Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia.
  • Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.75 conceded per match, which helps the Lazio to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Venezia sit 20 in the table, while Lazio sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Lazio to win sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price. Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia. Venezia have conceded 11 goals in four Serie A matches.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 51% implied
Strong positive
Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.75 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Venezia have conceded 11 goals in four Serie A.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lazio Win is the preferred angle because venezia have conceded that scoring level in four Serie A matches. Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia. That suggests Venezia’s challenge is not simply getting themselves into matches but sustaining their level once the contest begins to stretch.

Main risk

That suggests Venezia’s challenge is not simply getting themselves into matches but sustaining their level once the contest begins to stretch.

Key Data Signals

Lazio to win evidence

Venezia have conceded 11 goals in four Serie A matches.

Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia.

Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.75 conceded per match, which helps the Lazio Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Venezia sit 20 in the table, while Lazio sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Lazio to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Venezia1
    Avg goals scored
    Lazio1.5
    Venezia2.75
    Avg goals conceded
    Lazio0.75
    Venezia50%
    BTTS rate
    Lazio50%
    Venezia50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Lazio50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 50% for Venezia and 50% for Lazio, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Venezia

    LLLL
    Last 50W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 4L
    11 Sep 2026H Fiorentina2-4
    06 Sep 2026A Frosinone2-3
    28 Aug 2026A AC Milan0-2
    23 Aug 2026H Lecce0-2

    Lazio

    DWWW
    Last 53W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 0L
    12 Sep 2026H AC Milan2-2
    07 Sep 2026A Udinese2-1
    30 Aug 2026H Genoa1-0
    24 Aug 2026A Bologna1-0
    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
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    Lazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
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    Lazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Lazio to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Venezia Over 2.5
    50%Lazio Over 2.5
    2.25H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Venezia sit at 50% and Lazio sit at 50% with the H2H average at 2.25 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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