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Venezia crestVenezia
v
Lazio crestLazio

Serie A | Sat 19 Sep, 19:45

Venezia v Lazio Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Venezia face Lazio in Serie A on Sat 19 Sep, 19:45. Venezia come in with 0 recent points and 1 goals per match, while Lazio have 10 points and 1.5 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Lazio to Win

  • At 1.91, Lazio to Win implies roughly 52%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia.
  • Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.75 conceded per match, which helps the Lazio to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Venezia sit 20 in the table, while Lazio sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for Lazio to Win sits against roughly 52% implied by the current price. Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia.

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 52% implied
Strong positive
Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.75 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lazio Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Lazio to Win evidence

Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Venezia.

Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.75 conceded per match, which helps the Lazio Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Venezia sit 20 in the table, while Lazio sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Lazio to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Venezia1
    Avg goals scored
    Lazio1.5
    Venezia2.75
    Avg goals conceded
    Lazio0.75
    Venezia50%
    BTTS rate
    Lazio50%
    Venezia50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Lazio50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 50% for Venezia and 50% for Lazio, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Venezia

    LLLL
    Last 50W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 4L
    11 Sep 2026H Fiorentina2-4
    06 Sep 2026A Frosinone2-3
    28 Aug 2026A AC Milan0-2
    23 Aug 2026H Lecce0-2

    Lazio

    DWWW
    Last 53W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 0L
    12 Sep 2026H AC Milan2-2
    07 Sep 2026A Udinese2-1
    30 Aug 2026H Genoa1-0
    24 Aug 2026A Bologna1-0
    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Lazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Lazio1043103
    20Venezia04004-7
    Venezia sit in position 20, while Lazio sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Lazio to Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Lazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Lazio to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Venezia3
    Avg corners for
    Lazio5
    Venezia6.5
    Avg total corners
    Lazio9.25
    Venezia2.5
    Avg yellow cards
    Lazio2
    Venezia13.25
    Avg shots
    Lazio13
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.9 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Venezia wins
    1Draws
    3Lazio wins
    22 Feb 2025Venezia v Lazio0-0
    18 Aug 2024Lazio v Venezia3-1
    14 Mar 2022Lazio v Venezia1-0
    22 Dec 2021Venezia v Lazio1-3
    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Lazio to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Venezia4
    Played
    Lazio4
    Venezia1
    Avg goals for
    Lazio1.5
    Venezia2.8
    Avg goals against
    Lazio0.8
    Venezia0
    Clean sheets
    Lazio2
    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Lazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Season data supports Lazio to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Venezia Over 2.5
    50%Lazio Over 2.5
    2.25H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Venezia sit at 50% and Lazio sit at 50% with the H2H average at 2.25 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

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