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Serie A | Fri 18 Sep, 19:45

Monza v Sassuolo Stats

Data last updated: Thu 17 Sep 2026, 08:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Monza hosts Sassuolo in a Serie A clash where attacking intent is clear on both sides. Sassuolo arrives with a strong recent record, having secured seven points and boasting a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season. Monza, despite sitting lower in the table with just one point, also shows offensive promise, averaging 1.5 goals per game and matching Sassuolo's BTTS rate. The fixture promises open play and goal-scoring opportunities, with both teams eager to improve their league standing and offensive output under tactical setups favoring forward momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Sassuolo has a perfect 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season.
  • Monza also records a high 75% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches.
  • Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate, indicating consistent goal exchanges.
  • Average shots per game are high: Monza 14.25, Sassuolo 16.5, supporting attacking play.
  • Key players like E. Berardi contribute significantly to shot volume and goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 75.8% chance, well above the implied market chance of 55.6%. Both teams demonstrate attacking tendencies, with Sassuolo's perfect over 2.5 record and Monza's solid offensive numbers. High shot volumes and BTTS rates underline the likelihood of multiple goals. The data quality is robust, with no limitations, supporting in this prediction. The current of 1.8 offer positive value given the statistical and tactical context.

Model Chance75.8%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance55.6%
Strong positive
Value Edge20.2%
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesMonza 75%, Sassuolo 100%
Strong positive
BTTS RatesBoth teams 100%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Over 2.5 Goals selection fits the attacking profiles of both teams, especially with Sassuolo's consistent goal-scoring form and Monza's willingness to engage offensively. The high shot volumes and BTTS rates suggest an open game with multiple scoring opportunities, making this bet tactically and statistically sound.

Main risk

For Monza, the most obvious concern is not simply how often they are conceding, but how those goals are arriving.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking profiles and shot volume

“Both sides have shown strong offensive intent and high shot volumes, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling pick for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Sassuolo has a perfect 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season.

Monza also records a high 75% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches.

Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate, indicating consistent goal exchanges.

Average shots per game are high: Monza 14.25, Sassuolo 16.5, supporting attacking play.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five meetings, the average goals per game is 2.2, slightly below the Over 2.5 threshold.
  • However, recent form and attacking statistics for both teams suggest an increased tempo and goal volume for this fixture, favoring Over 2.5 goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Monza1.5
Avg goals scored
Sassuolo2
Monza2.75
Avg goals conceded
Sassuolo1.75
Monza100%
BTTS rate
Sassuolo100%
Monza75%
Over 2.5 goals
Sassuolo100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have recorded 100% BTTS rates this season, with Sassuolo averaging 2 goals per game and Monza 1.5. This consistent goal exchange supports the likelihood of multiple goals and aligns with the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Sassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Sassuolo to WinBetUK guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Monza Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Monza to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 1.8, reflecting a positive of over 20%. The model's 75.8% chance significantly exceeds the market's implied 55.6%, indicating a price-sensitive opportunity worth backing with standard stakes.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubMonza v Sassuolo predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Monza3.75
Avg corners for
Sassuolo4.5
Monza7.75
Avg total corners
Sassuolo11.25
Monza1.25
Avg yellow cards
Sassuolo1.5
Monza14.25
Avg shots
Sassuolo16.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 56% · edge +2.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
High average shots per game (Monza 14.25, Sassuolo 16.5) and corners (Monza 3.75, Sassuolo 4.5) suggest sustained attacking pressure. Discipline is moderate, with low yellow card averages, indicating open play rather than overly physical contests.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Monza

LDLL
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
13 Sep 2026A Lecce2-3
06 Sep 2026A Parma1-1
29 Aug 2026H Udinese2-3
22 Aug 2026A Inter1-4

Sassuolo

WDWL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
13 Sep 2026H Juventus3-2
06 Sep 2026A Bologna2-2
29 Aug 2026H Torino2-1
23 Aug 2026A Atalanta1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 84% vs implied 74% · edge +10.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Sassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Sassuolo to WinBetUK guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Monza Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Monza to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
DrawBet365 guide price · model 20%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Sassuolo's perfect over 2.5 goals record and Monza's 75% rate in recent matches demonstrate both teams' offensive momentum. Sassuolo's seven points and Monza's goal-scoring despite limited points reflect contrasting form but shared attacking intent.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Monza wins
2Draws
0Sassuolo wins
03 Aug 2024Monza v Sassuolo2-2
28 Jan 2024Monza v Sassuolo1-0
02 Oct 2023Sassuolo v Monza0-1
19 May 2023Sassuolo v Monza1-2
22 Jan 2023Monza v Sassuolo1-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Sassuolo to WinBetUK guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Monza to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 20%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The five recent head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, indicating moderately open encounters. While this is slightly below the Over 2.5 benchmark, current season form and attacking stats provide stronger signals for a higher-scoring game this time.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Monza4
Played
Sassuolo4
Monza1.5
Avg goals for
Sassuolo2
Monza2.8
Avg goals against
Sassuolo1.8
Monza0
Clean sheets
Sassuolo0
Best odds for this sectionSassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Load more odds for this section
Sassuolo to WinBetUK guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Monza Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Monza to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Season-long data shows Sassuolo averaging 2 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game, while Monza scores 1.5 but concedes 2.75. These figures highlight a tendency for open matches with multiple goals, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals bet.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Sassuolo742111
18Monza14013-5
Sassuolo sits comfortably in 9th with 7 points, reflecting solid form, while Monza is 18th with 1 point, indicating defensive struggles. The standings suggest Sassuolo may push for control, but Monza's need for points could lead to an open, attacking game.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Monza Over 2.5
100%Sassuolo Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last five meetings, the average goals per game is 2.2, slightly below the Over 2.5 threshold. However, recent form and attacking statistics for both teams suggest an increased tempo and goal volume for this fixture, favoring Over 2.5 goals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Monza v Sassuolo prediction

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