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Monza crestMonza
v
Sassuolo crestSassuolo

Serie A | Fri 18 Sep, 19:45

Monza v Sassuolo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 19:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Monza face Sassuolo in Serie A on Fri 18 Sep, 19:45. Monza’s search for a first Serie A win of the season continues against a Sassuolo side arriving at the U-Power Stadium with rather more momentum, but also with defensive questions of their own.

BT4Y best bet

Sassuolo to win

  • At 13/10, Sassuolo to win implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 59%.
  • A 2-1 score fits Sassuolo's recent scoring and Monza's defensive record, with both teams regularly scoring.
  • Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Monza.
  • Sassuolo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.75 conceded per match, which helps the Sassuolo to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Monza sit 16 in the table, while Sassuolo sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 59% for Sassuolo to win sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Monza. A 2-1 score fits Sassuolo's recent scoring and Monza's defensive record, with both teams regularly scoring.

Model chance vs price59% model chance against roughly 44% implied
Strong positive
Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Sassuolo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.75 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
A 2-1 score fits Sassuolo's recent scoring and Monza's.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sassuolo Win is the preferred angle because a 2-1 score fits Sassuolo's recent scoring and Monza's defensive record, with both teams regularly scoring. Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Monza. For Monza, the most obvious concern is not simply how often they are conceding, but how those goals are arriving.

Main risk

For Monza, the most obvious concern is not simply how often they are conceding, but how those goals are arriving.

Key Data Signals

Sassuolo to win evidence

A 2-1 score fits Sassuolo's recent scoring and Monza's defensive record, with both teams regularly scoring.

Sassuolo have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 1 for Monza.

Sassuolo have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.75 conceded per match, which helps the Sassuolo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Monza sit 16 in the table, while Sassuolo sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Sassuolo to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Monza1.5
    Avg goals scored
    Sassuolo2
    Monza2.75
    Avg goals conceded
    Sassuolo1.75
    Monza100%
    BTTS rate
    Sassuolo100%
    Monza75%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Sassuolo100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
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    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSassuolo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 73%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Sassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 56%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Sassuolo to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Serie A hubMonza v Sassuolo predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Monza

    LDLL
    Last 50W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 3L
    13 Sep 2026A Lecce2-3
    06 Sep 2026A Parma1-1
    29 Aug 2026H Udinese2-3
    22 Aug 2026A Inter1-4

    Sassuolo

    WDWL
    Last 52W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 1L
    13 Sep 2026H Juventus3-2
    06 Sep 2026A Bologna2-2
    29 Aug 2026H Torino2-1
    23 Aug 2026A Atalanta1-2
    Market aligned with main pickSassuolo to WinBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Sassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    75%Monza Over 2.5
    100%Sassuolo Over 2.5
    2.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Monza sit at 75% and Sassuolo sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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