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Bologna crestBologna
v
Torino crestTorino

Serie A | Sat 19 Sep, 14:00

Bologna v Torino Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 03:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bologna face Torino in Serie A on Sat 19 Sep, 14:00. Torino have conceded seven league goals and kept no clean sheets, giving Bologna a vulnerable defence against which to test whether their finishing can improve. Bologna's stronger home shooting and Torino's weaker away form frame the match result.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Over 2

  • At 9/10, Over 2 implies roughly 53%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • Market Explainer: Over 2.5 Goals
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 25% for Bologna and 75% for Torino, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Torino are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Bologna at 0.5.
  • BTTS rates of 25% for Bologna and 75% for Torino show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
Price warning

Over 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 53% while the model sits nearer 48% (-5.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +11.1 pts edge at 1.8.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 48% for Over 2 sits against roughly 53% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 25% for Bologna and 75% for Torino, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Market Explainer: Over 2.5 Goals

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 53% implied
Negative
The Over 2.5 trend is 25% for Bologna and 75%.Visible data support
Positive
Torino are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.Visible data support
Positive
Market Explainer: Over 2.5 GoalsArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because market Explainer: Over 2.5 Goals The Over 2.5 trend is 25% for Bologna and 75% for Torino, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

Market Explainer: Over 2.5 Goals

The Over 2.5 trend is 25% for Bologna and 75% for Torino, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Torino are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Bologna at 0.5.

BTTS rates of 25% for Bologna and 75% for Torino show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bologna0.5
Avg goals scored
Torino1
Bologna1.25
Avg goals conceded
Torino1.75
Bologna25%
BTTS rate
Torino75%
Bologna25%
Over 2.5 goals
Torino75%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 50% · edge -2.5 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 25% for Bologna and 75% for Torino, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 50% · edge -2.5 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Torino to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Torino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Bologna Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 Goals is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionsBologna v Torino predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bologna

LDLL
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
13 Sep 2026A Napoli0-1
06 Sep 2026H Sassuolo2-2
31 Aug 2026A Atalanta0-1
24 Aug 2026H Lazio0-1

Torino

LWLL
Last 51W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 3L
14 Sep 2026H AS Roma0-2
05 Sep 2026A Fiorentina2-1
29 Aug 2026A Sassuolo1-2
23 Aug 2026H AC Milan1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Torino to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Torino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Bologna Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Bologna to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Bologna Over 2.5
75%Torino Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Bologna sit at 25% and Torino sit at 75% with the H2H average at 1.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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